The Royals Need to Move Salvador Perez Down in the Batting Order

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals are a team starving for run production, especially with runners in scoring position.

Going into Saturday's game with the White Sox, Kansas City ranks last in Major League Baseball with a 39 wRC+ in RISP situations this season. They also rank last in ISO (.054), 29th in batting average (.196), and 29th in BB/K ratio (0.29) with runners in scoring position this year. For a team that had struggled early in 2025 in RISP situations, these issues with runners on second and third are frustrating, especially for a team that's currently 6-7 going into Saturday's afternoon contest at Kauffman Stadium.

It's easy to blame the front office for the Royals' RISP struggles. There are many fans who think GM JJ Picollo should've made a bigger swing for a free-agent bat or traded for one. That said, Jarren Duran, who seemed to be the primary Royals' trade target this offseason, currently has a 51 wRC+. Furthermore, the bottom of the Royals' lineup has been fine, with Kyle Isbel (181 wRC+), Jonathan India (100 wRC+), Jac Caglianone (98 wRC+), and Isaac Collins (82 wRC+) showing decent production in those spots. 

However, the big issue has been the Royals' 2-3-4 production in RISP situations, as David Lesky of Inside the Crown pointed out on Twitter yesterday.

 

When it comes to RISP wRC+, Bobby Witt Jr. sports a 17 wRC+, Vinnie Pasquantino sports an 8 wRC+, and Salvador Perez has a -65 wRC+. Royals fans read that latter number correctly. The Royals captain has been 65 runs below average with runners in scoring position this season.

Of course, it's a small sample. However, his 20 plate appearances in RISP situations lead all Royals hitters as of Saturday, according to Fangraphs. Second is Vinnie with 19. 

The Royals can be patient with one of those hitters to get out of their funk during this stretch. However, two of them? That's a harder ask, especially with a critical series against the Detroit Tigers coming up on the road. 

It's not just RISP situations that are an issue for Salvy. Overall, he's hitting .157 with a 51 wRC+ in 56 plate appearances. His 12.5% strikeout rate is 7 percentage points lower than his mark a year ago, which is good. However, his ISO is 52 points down from 2025, and his xwOBA of .307 is 50 points down. It's not like last year, when he was crushing the ball and getting unlucky. He's actually showing genuine signs of regression at the plate.

Therefore, manager Matt Quatraro should move Salvy (and perhaps Pasquantino) down in the batting order. Not only do Salvy's current metrics not support him being the Royals' cleanup hitter, but the historical data doesn't confirm it either.

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The Statcast Data for Salvy Does Not Look Encouraging

There are some things that Perez is still doing well offensively this season, at least when it comes to the batted-ball and Statcast data. 

Salvy's barrel rate is 13.6%, and his hard-hit rate is 43.2%, both of which are above the league average. His average exit velocity is 90.7 MPH, 0.7 MPH higher than a year ago. However, beyond those metrics, the Statcast data has been concerning.

Here's a look at where he ranks in certain Statcast categories, via his TJ Stats Statcast summary profile.

A few particular metrics stick out with Salvy. His Pull Air% ranks in the 44th percentile. His Max EV ranks in the 38th percentile. His Z-Contact% ranks in the 35th percentile, and his LA Sweet-spot% ranks in the 25th percentile. Those are big declines, especially considering where he was in those categories a year ago, as illustrated below.

Last season, his Pull Air% and Max EV ranked in the 88th percentile. Furthermore, his LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 65th percentile. His Z-Contact% also ranked in the 43rd percentile, not significantly higher but still noteworthy. 

The reality is that Perez is hitting the ball less hard, pulling the ball less, and making less contact on balls in the strike zone. Those are all signs of regression, and even though he's bound to see some positive regression in the future, he may not improve enough to match what he did a season ago in those important Statcast categories. 

The bat speed overall isn't all that different from 2025. His 72.4 MPH average bat speed is only 0.5 MPH slower than last year's mark. That said, his 21.2% fast-swing rate is 9.3% lower than in 2025, and his 7.9-foot swing length hasn't changed. He's blasting the ball above league average at 19%, but his squared-up date is down to 31.6%, a 0.9% decline.  

The Royals need a primary run producer in the cleanup spot. Right now, based on the Statcast data and his skills, I am not sure that's Salvy, unless something dramatic happens soon.

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Salvy Historically Hasn't Been Good in the Cleanup Spot

After the Royals' 2-0 loss to the White Sox on Thursday, Quatraro mentioned that Perez had proven himself in the past in the cleanup spot, pointing to home runs and RBI as the key indicators.

That said, this isn't fantasy baseball. Were his 30 home runs and 100 RBI impressive? Yes, but when looking at his cleanup-spot performance last year, the data showed he wasn't as impressive as his home runs and RBI totals suggested.

In 307 plate appearances as a cleanup hitter, he hit .216 with a .621 OPS and 67 wRC+. After a slow start, Quatraro moved Maikel Garcia to cleanup and Salvy to the No. 5 spot. In 315 plate appearances in the No. 5 spot, Perez hit .261 with a .859 OPS and 130 wRC+. As a cleanup hitter, he hit seven home runs and posted a .134 ISO last season. As a No. 5 hitter? He hit 23 home runs and posted a .295 ISO.

Some Royals fans may say, "Yeah, well, that's just one year, bro!" (I added the "bro"). Well, let's take a look at his career splits in the 3, 4, and 5 spots, where he's had the most career plate appearances.

• No. 3: 1,783 plate appearances, .270 average, .790 OPS, .215 ISO, 111 wRC+.
• No. 4: 2,172 plate appearances, .238 average, .695 OPS, .171 ISO, 87 wRC+.
• No. 5: 1,667 plate appearances, .272 average, .777 OPS, .200 ISO, 105 wRC+.

The best spot in his career has been No. 3, but given how he's trending, it's unlikely Quatraro would move him up (and that may not be the best idea anyway). In 1,667 career plate appearances in the No. 5 spot, he's been solid with a .777 OPS and 105 wRC+. In the cleanup spot, however, Salvy has been mediocre, as evidenced by his posting the worst marks in those four categories. In fact, his wRC+ in the cleanup spot is nearly 20 points worse than his career mark in the No. 5 spot. 

Quatraro has been protective of players and their standing in the batting order.

Even though Witt makes a lot of sense in the leadoff spot (gives him the most at-bats in a game and he's their best player), Quatraro (or Witt) has been averse to it because of some early struggles in that spot (particularly in 2023). It may be a similar case with Salvy. The Royals captain may be comfortable in the cleanup spot, and Quatraro doesn't have a whole lot of "traditional" options right now, either, who could easily fill in for Salvy.

That said, it hasn't been working for Salvy in cleanup for more than a year, perhaps even longer. It may be good for Quatraro and his team to trust the data in this situation and move Salvy from the cleanup spot sooner rather than later.

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So, How Should the Royals' Lineup Look?

The easiest solution with the lineup is to move Salvy down to the No. 5 spot. That said, what does the rest of the lineup look like, not just at cleanup, but at the top of the batting order in general?

An easy solution could be to move Garcia back to the No. 4 spot, like a year ago, but he's been thriving at leadoff this year. The Venezuelan third baseman is hitting .315 with a 142 wRC+ and provides the kind of plate discipline and speed at the top of the lineup that they need.

 

 

Another solution could be to move Vinnie down to No. 4, or perhaps move Carter Jensen up to that spot.

 

Pasquantino has thrived in the cleanup spot, with a career .201 ISO and a 152 wRC+ in 317 plate appearances. That said, he also has a career .185 ISO and 107 wRC+ in 1,313 plate appearances in the No. 3 spot. So it's not like Pasquantino is ineffective in the No. 3 spot, and there's a lot more data that supports him at No. 3 as well in terms of plate appearances. 

One option could be to move Jensen to cleanup. It's a bold move for the rookie, but the Statcast data suggests he's the best power hitter on this team right now, especially in terms of exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates.

Here's a look at his TJ Stats Statcast profile this season.

Yes, there are some contact issues with Jensen, given his 14th-percentile Z-Contact% and 7th-percentile whiff and strikeout rates. However, he has a 40th percentile BB% and a 71st percentile O-Swing%, so he has the plate discipline to make up for that swing-and-miss. 

However, the power is what sticks out the most with Jensen. His Max EV ranks in the 95th percentile, his barrel rate ranks in the 93rd percentile, his hard-hit rate ranks in the 74th percentile, and his Pull Air% ranks in the 98th percentile. The power tool is legitimate, and with four home runs, Jensen may have the biggest home run upside of any hitter in the Royals lineup. 

His home run yesterday against the White Sox shows that he could not just handle the cleanup spot, but thrive in it.

 

Salvy has veteran presence and is the captain, which makes this decision tough for Quatraro (I'm guessing he doesn't want to throw off the clubhouse's vibe). However, Jensen can easily fill in the cleanup spot and surpass what Salvy is bringing in that place in the batting order currently and down the road, both this season and beyond. 

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[Rolando]

This article should be on Royals Manager Matt Quatraro’s desk for him to read first thing Monday morning. It is statistically sound, data-driven, and offers practical, common-sense solutions.
When the lineup remains unchanged despite clear evidence, one has to wonder how engaged the organization’s management truly is with its Analytics Department. The insights presented in this piece are the kind of valuable information that should have already been flagged by the analytics team, the hitting coaches, or senior management. Yet, as of now, no meaningful adjustments have been made.
Salvador Perez, for example, should arguably be batting in the fifth spot based on the data outlined in the article. The fact that this change hasn’t occurred suggests the Royals are not effectively utilizing the analytical resources available to them. As a result, the team’s offense has struggled out of the gate, and the Royals continue to hover around .500.
It’s perfectly acceptable to be an old-school manager in many respects, but even traditionalists benefit greatly from embracing data. The most effective managers are those who successfully blend experience and intuition with modern analytics. Having read numerous similar analytical breakdowns over the years, it seems the Royals’ front office and coaching staff could pay closer attention to these types of studies.
While the organization has publicly stated that it values analytics, the on-field results and lack of lineup adjustments make it difficult to see that philosophy being applied in practice. 

[Kevin O'Brien]

23 hours ago, Rolando said:

This article should be on Royals Manager Matt Quatraro’s desk for him to read first thing Monday morning. It is statistically sound, data-driven, and offers practical, common-sense solutions.
When the lineup remains unchanged despite clear evidence, one has to wonder how engaged the organization’s management truly is with its Analytics Department. The insights presented in this piece are the kind of valuable information that should have already been flagged by the analytics team, the hitting coaches, or senior management. Yet, as of now, no meaningful adjustments have been made.
Salvador Perez, for example, should arguably be batting in the fifth spot based on the data outlined in the article. The fact that this change hasn’t occurred suggests the Royals are not effectively utilizing the analytical resources available to them. As a result, the team’s offense has struggled out of the gate, and the Royals continue to hover around .500.
It’s perfectly acceptable to be an old-school manager in many respects, but even traditionalists benefit greatly from embracing data. The most effective managers are those who successfully blend experience and intuition with modern analytics. Having read numerous similar analytical breakdowns over the years, it seems the Royals’ front office and coaching staff could pay closer attention to these types of studies.
While the organization has publicly stated that it values analytics, the on-field results and lack of lineup adjustments make it difficult to see that philosophy being applied in practice. 

I appreciate that Rolando. And thanks for the kind words on the article. Really appreciate your feedback.

Matt Quatraro is an analytical manager, so I definitely think he, the coaching staff, and the analytical team have access to the data I have presented and are aware of it. The issue is that running a clubhouse can be very delicate, requiring a balance between data and personalities. I think Q has done a good job of managing the personalities and day-to-day. You really haven't heard much outside of the Jensen incident. And the team definitely seems like a more focused and relaxed group than they were during the Matheny days.

At the same time, I also wonder where Q has to be realistic with Salvy and let the data do its talking. Yes, you don't want to upset a legend like Salvy, but the data doesn't support keeping him in the cleanup spot for much longer. I do know Q eventually makes those moves, and he did so a year ago, and the offense turned around (for both Salvy and the team). Hopefully, Q makes the move sooner rather than later. 

[Hokius]

Always add the bro, bro. 

 

I'm right there with you. This lineup is a lot better if Sal is batting sixth or seventh and Carter is the obvious choice to move above him. I'd also slide up Collins and his OBP along with Jac's not-great-but-still-better OBP.