Is Eli Morgan This Year's Royals Breakout Reliever?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images

The Royals' bullpen has gone through its share of struggles this year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City relievers rank 27th in ERA, 28th in WHIP and H/9, 23rd in HR/9, and 22nd in BB/9. On a positive note, the Royals' bullpen ranks 15th in K/9, which is much better than their 29th ranking a season ago. 

Thus, there's some talent in the Royals' bullpen; it's just finding the right combination and pieces that can carry this pitching staff in various leverage situations. 

 

With Carlos Estevez on the IL, the Royals have been relying on Lucas Erceg, Matt Strahm, and John Schreiber in high-leverage situations. However, one pitcher who has emerged is Eli Morgan, who came to Spring Training as a Royals non-roster invitee, eventually made the roster, and earned an MLB contract.

 

In Cactus League play, Morgan posted a 0.87 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 1.94 FIP in 10.1 IP. That also included some excellent whiff and CSW metrics, as illustrated below.

Morgan didn't make the Opening Day roster, as the Royals opted for Alex Lange and Bailey Falter, who were out of Minor League options. However, Falter is currently on the IL, and the Royals needed fresh bullpen arms after heavy workloads by Luinder Avila and Steven Cruz during the Guardians series.

Thus, the Royals tapped Morgan and Mitch Spence to fill in, and the former has demonstrated that he's not only a solid fill-in reliever but could hold a major role in this Royals bullpen in 2026.

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Morgan Showing Stuff and Results in Kansas City

So far, in two outings, Morgan has shown versatility as a multi-innings reliever for the Royals.

The 29-year-old has accumulated five innings with Kansas City, so far, which included a three-inning outing against Milwaukee and a two-inning appearance against the White Sox (both at home).

In that sample, Morgan has a 0.00 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a 1.90 FIP. He is also sporting a 30% K% and 20% K-BB%, which shows his impeccable command. The former Guardians reliever has also done an excellent job not just generating strikes, of both the called-strike and whiff variety, but preventing hard contact as well. That is illustrated by his TJ Stats summary below.

 

Morgan doesn't sport high-end velocity, as evidenced by his 91.4 MPH fastball velocity, which ranks in the 12th percentile. However, he is still generating a 33.3% whiff rate (79th percentile), and a 36.2% CSW% (93rd percentile). Those solid metrics could be attributed to the excellent stuff shown on his changeup and slider, which sport TJ Stuff+ marks of 103 and 101, respectively. 

Here's a deeper look at Morgan's TJ Stuff+ profile this year, via TJ Stats.

Morgan's changeup has been his best pitch by far this season. Not only does it have the best TJ Stuff+ mark of his three-pitch mix, but it also sports a 60% zone, 50% chase, 28.6% whiff rate, and a .286 xwOBACON. The pitch has been a particularly effective offering against lefties, whom he has thrown the changeup 37.8% of the time against.

When facing left-handed hitters, Morgan is generating a 64.3% zone rate, 40% chase rate, 42.9% whiff rate, and a .240 xwOBACON. 

Thus, the approach is working in terms of the results. Here's a look at a punchout that Morgan generated with the changeup against Milwaukee's Brice Turang in Morgan's first outing with the Royals last Saturday.

Morgan's slider has also shown results so far in a limited sample. The breaking offering, which he throws 27.5% of the time, generates a 33.3% chase rate and a 71.4% whiff rate.  Like the changeup, the slider has been particularly effective against lefties. It's generating 80% chase and whiff rates and a .120 xwOBA.

 

The slider is a harder-breaking offering, with just 3.3 inches of horizontal break and 3.9 inches of iVB. That said, it can be effective against lefties sitting on the four-seamer, as illustrated with this strikeout of Blake Perkins below.

 

Morgan's four-seamer is an okay, not great offering. It sports a 96 TJ Stuff+ and only an 11.1% whiff rate. However, he does a good job of generating weak contact with it at least. He has produced a .157 xwOBACON with the four-seamer, and it has proved to be a nice pitch that works effectively with his much better changeup and slider offerings. 

Thus, the righty's repertoire not only has produced strong results through two games, but the stuff behind his three-pitch mix could help him sustain these results over the course of a full season. 

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Are There Any Concerns With Morgan?

Morgan had a great season in 2024 with the Cleveland Guardians, posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 32 appearances and 42 innings. In Cleveland, the number of innings showed that Morgan was used as a reliever who could go multiple innings on frequent occasions. 

However, can he fill in high or medium-leverage situations?

In terms of gmLI, which measures the leverage index of when a pitcher enters the game, Morgan had a 0.84 mark in his last season with the Guardians. That ranked 11th among Cleveland relievers that season, according to Fangraphs. Thus, he was more utilized in medium- to low-leverage situations, which is what manager Matt Quatraro has used him in so far this season.

Hence, it may be tough for Morgan to move into a setup role with the Royals, or at least so quickly. Right now, his gmLI is 0.37, which ranks 9th among Royals relievers thus far, according to Fangraphs. Only Lange (0.14) and Falter (0.13) have seen lower-leverage situations (well, technically Tyler Tolbert too in his lone career pitching appearance). 

Therefore, Morgan has been a nice story for the Royals so far, and he definitely should have a spot as a long reliever in this Royals bullpen. I would be curious to see if Kansas City possibly parts ways with Falter once he is ready to come off the IL, as Morgan has served that role much better than Falter so far. That said, Falter may be out for a while, as his injury seems unique and stems back to a season ago.

 

There's no question that Morgan has been strong in his Royals debut. However, Royals fans shouldn't be ready to advocate for higher leverage from Morgan just yet. He's succeeding in his role as a multi-inning mop-up man who can keep the higher-leverage arms from accumulating mileage on their arms.

But is Morgan a setup man? Not just yet. And that's okay. Let Morgan succeed in his role, with the hope that he can maybe develop more responsibility as he gains more confidence in Kansas City. 

 

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