Breaking Down The Royals’ First Trip Through the Rotation

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / © Mady Mertens-Imagn Images

After the first five games of the season, each starter in the Royals' rotation has one start. What are the key takeaways from the first time through the rotation?

Cole Ragans

Ragans struggled on Opening Day in Atlanta, allowing four runs on six hits and four walks in only four innings of work.

Ragans struggled to find the strike zone, particularly with his fastball, slider, and knuckle curve. He was, however, able to generate chases and whiffs, particularly with his slider, which had a 46.2% chase rate and 36.4% whiff rate. His slider was his standout pitch, with a TJ Stuff+ of 106, compared to an overall mark of 101.

Ragans was susceptible to big mistakes, allowing seven hard-hit balls, three of which resulted in home runs. For continued success in 2026, Ragans will need to limit the hard hit and power potential of his opponents.

Most notably, Ragans appeared to lose his footing while throwing a fastball early in the game, and his fastball delivery was noticeably different later in his outing. It will be important to see if this persists in his next start.

Michael Wacha

Wacha impressed in his outing on Saturday, throwing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts, three hits, and one walk. He generated 17 whiffs and was able to get the Braves to chase the ball out of the zone at a 50% rate. He also limited the Braves to only four hard hits in his six innings.

While the bullpen was not able to hold on to the Royals' 2-0 lead, Wacha did an excellent job in putting the Royals in a position to win the game.

Wacha proved that after a poor spring training, he is still capable of impressing on the mound when it matters. While his TJ Stuff+ did not overly impress at only 96 overall, Wacha will continue to yield positive results on the mound if he can continue to limit his opponents to a .212 xwOBA and suppress hard contact.

Seth Lugo

Lugo followed Wacha’s performance with another shutout effort across 6⅓ innings, allowing five hits and no walks. His effort led to the Royals’ first win of 2026.

On Sunday, Lugo looked more like his form of 2024 when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting. Lugo featured nine different pitches that found the zone at an excellent 61% rate. While Lugo was unable to get batters to whiff like Wacha and Ragans, he was able to get the Braves to chase his rare pitches out of the zone at a 33.3% rate. 

Lugo did allow eight hard-hit balls and an xwOBA of .394, so limiting hard contact will be key to sustaining success throughout 2026.

Kris Bubic

Bubic got the nod to start the Royals’ home opener on Monday and reminded Royals fans that he is still capable of pitching at his 2025 All-Star level after finishing last season on the injured list. Bubic allowed one run on Monday against the Twins in his six innings.

He limited baserunners effectively, allowing only two hits and three walks in his 75-pitch outing. His lone earned run came on a home run by Matt Wallner in the second inning.

Bubic showed excellent stuff with a 101 TJ Stuff+, with all of his pitches except for his sinker grading at least 103. Bubic also excelled at generating whiffs with 12 during his outing.

Like Lugo, Bubic was susceptible to allowing hard-hit balls, with eight in his 15 batted balls allowed, which drove up his xwOBA compared to his wOBA allowed.

Bubic demonstrated that he has the stuff to continue his success from 2025. If he can continue to generate whiffs and limit hard contact, he will be well-positioned to succeed in 2026.

Noah Cameron

Cameron continued the stretch of strong outings from Royals starters with an effective performance in the rain against the Twins on Wednesday night. He threw five innings, allowing one run on four hits and one walk.

Despite the results, Cameron struggled to find the zone (41%) and did not generate many whiffs. When he did locate pitches in the zone, they were often over the middle, allowing Twins hitters to make solid contact. He allowed nine hard-hit balls on 14 balls in play.

Cameron will need to reduce hard contact, especially if he is unable to consistently generate swings and misses.

Cameron displayed decent underlying stuff with his cutter and changeup grading at 100 and 101 TJ Stuff+, respectively. Since Cameron’s fastball only averages 91.2 mph, he relies on the success of his offspeed pitches for sustained success.

Conclusion

Overall, the Royals' starters saw success in the first turn through the rotation in 2026. They combined for six earned runs across 27 ⅓ innings, good for a 1.96 ERA. While it is unlikely that the rotation can maintain that level of success for the whole season, they have certainly shown Royals fans that they can give the team a platform to succeed and stay competitive in 2026.

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