Will Jonathan India Bounce Back In 2026?

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of © Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

In 2025, Jonathan India entered the season as the Royals’ primary leadoff hitter to set the table for Bobby Witt Jr. at the top of the lineup. By the end of the season, India found himself near the bottom of the order after continued offensive struggles.

When Kansas City traded for India last offseason, he was coming off his strongest season since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. In 2024, he slashed .248/.357/.392 with a 105 OPS+. In 2025, however, his production sharply regressed, and India posted career lows across the board, finishing with a .233/.323/.346 slash line with an 89 OPS+.

At the beginning of the offseason, there were rumors that India could be a non-tender candidate entering his last year of arbitration. The Royals and India did eventually agree on an $8 million deal for 2026, keeping India in Kansas City for one last season before he hits free agency.

Statcast data can provide insight on what may have caused India’s decline. Despite continuing to have excellent plate-discipline, ranking in the top 3% in chase rate, his walk rate dropped from 12.6% in 2024 to 9.5% in 2025. That drop significantly reduced his on-base value.

A more concerning decline was in India's batted ball quality. In 2025, we were in the launch-angle sweet spot, with barrel rates dropping from the 92nd to the 29th percentile and from the 49th to the 22nd percentile, respectively. These changes had a major impact on his power production and slugging percentage.

Another notable shift is that India’s pull rate increased in 2025 compared to his previous two seasons in Cincinnati. In 2025, he pulled the ball on 48% of his batted balls compared to 41.5% and 41.2% of the time in 2023 and 2024, respectively. This could be the result of no longer playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park (GABP), one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. The change in India’s pull rate can be seen in the hit spray charts from the last three seasons.

Cincinnati’s ballpark features a shorter and lower right field wall than left field, giving right-handed hitters like India an incentive to drive the ball to the opposite field for power production. Kauffman Stadium, however, has a symmetrical outfield wall and one of the most spacious outfields in baseball, and suppresses home runs.

Statcast data provides details on how the ballparks impact offensive production. GABP ranks 4th among the most hitter-friendly ballparks. It has the highest park factor for home runs, and it consistently ranks high in boosting offensive metrics like OBP and wOBA. Kauffman Stadium, by contrast, ranks close to average in overall park factor and is the 4th worst ballpark when it comes to home runs. Statcast’s expected home run by park metric, which accounts for wall distance, height, and environmental factors, provides additional context to the difference in these parks. By this metric, India would have 97 career home runs if all of his batted balls were hit at GABP, compared to just 48 home runs if they were all hit at Kauffman.

Is there optimism for India going into 2026? Various projections on FanGraphs predict a rebound season for India, forecasting anywhere between 1.3 and 1.7 fWAR, placing him at slightly above league-average production. These projections could stem partly from the fact that India’s batting average, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average were all lower than their expected counterparts. Despite the fact that the expected numbers are still below average, they do suggest that India ran into poor luck in 2025.

	BA	SLG	wOBA
Actual	.233	.346	.301
Expected	.241	.373	.315

India’s other key metrics, such as hard hit rate, exit velocity, and bat speed, stayed relatively consistent in 2025 compared to previous years. Additionally, along with India’s still excellent plate discipline, his strikeout rate has declined in each season in MLB.

With key additions in the outfield such as Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins, India will likely no longer be asked to play out of position in left field, which could provide stability in his day-to-day approach. The addition of Marcus Thames to the hitting staff could provide a change of approach for India. A refined approach that could help India recapture his production and on-base value that could help him return to the top of the order.

Unless there is another significant addition to the Royals’ roster, all signs point to Jonathan India being the main baseman in Kansas City. If he does continue to struggle, Michael Massey or even Isaac Collins could spend time platooning with India at second base. However, a salary of $8 million is a lot of money to dedicate to a part-time player on the Royals’ payroll.

View full article