How Does the Maikel Garcia Extension Mold the Royals' Offseason Plans?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images

On Friday, the Royals made some big headlines in the baseball world, as Jeff Passan reported that the Kansas City Royals had agreed on a five-year extension with third baseman Maikel Garcia.

Royals MLB.com writer Anne Rogers finalized the details of Garcia's deal, which totaled $57.5 million in guaranteed money over the five-year span, with a club option for 2031. 

Rogers shared more details about the deal in her whole piece on MLB.com later in the afternoon. He will be making a little over $4 million next season, which would have been his first year of arbitration.

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According to a source, Garcia will make $4 million in 2026 (what would have been his first arbitration year), $7 million in ‘27, $10 million in ‘28, $13 million in ‘29 and $19 million in ‘30. The club option is for $21 million. There are other escalators in the 2030 and ‘31 seasons. The deal also includes a signing bonus and a $3.2 million buyout on the club option to get to the $57.5 million guarantee.

The deal gives Garcia financial stability through the 2030 season and shows the Royals' long-term commitment to their young infielder. That said, his first year is a bit of a discount for the Royals. His estimated salary in arbitration was $5.8 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Thus, the Royals saved nearly $2 million for next year's payroll by agreeing to this Garcia extension. 

Therefore, this is an interesting deal for Garcia and the Royals, as it maintains their ability to build their roster in the short term this offseason while still providing a blueprint for the long term.

Let's look at why Royals GM JJ Picollo gave Garcia this extension, the long-term impact, and what other moves are on the horizon in Kansas City in the wake of this extension announcement. 

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Garcia's Hitting Changes and Skill Improvement in 2025

The 25-year-old Royals infielder has been a key part of the Royals since the 2023 season, and he showed flashes of strong play in 2023 and 2024.

In his first full season in 2023, Garcia posted an 85 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR in 515 plate appearances. However, things regressed a little bit in 2024, especially at the plate. In 626 plate appearances, he posted a 71 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR. He hit seven home runs, three more than he did a season ago. Garcia also scored 84 runs and stole 37 bases, both improvements from what he did in his rookie year (59 and 23, respectively). Unfortunately, his average exit velocity declined (91.8 MPH to 90.4 MPH), as did his hard-hit rate (50.6% to 42.8%). That led to a .270 wOBA, a 29-point decline from his 2023 mark.

After a disappointing season in 2024, Garcia went to the drawing board and retooled some things in his swing in 2025. With the help of hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, the Venezuelan infielder made some modifications to his hands and leg kick, which was noticeable in Spring Training last year.

Resting the bat on his shoulder in his batting stance and opting for a toe tap instead of a leg kick did wonders for his batted-ball metrics and overall results. 

In 666 plate appearances, Garcia slashed .286/.351/.449 with an .800 OPS and 121 wRC+. He also hit 16 home runs, a career-high, scored 81 runs, and collected 74 RBI, the latter being a career-high. The stolen bases fell to 23, a bit of a regression from a year ago. However, he traded speed for power, which was welcomed by a Royals lineup that ranked 26th in runs scored and home runs last season. 

The Royals' primary third baseman also saw a boost in many important Statcast categories last year. His 91.3 MPH average exit velocity was 0.9 MPH higher than his previous average. His 45.1% hard-hit rate was 2.3% higher than a year ago. Lastly, his 9.7 average launch angle and 5.6% barrel rate were career-highs. 

When looking at his overall Statcast profile via TJ Stats, he demonstrated some encouraging growth in his batted-ball categories while still maintaining elite plate discipline skills. That kind of combination made him one of the Royals' most effective hitters, skills-wise, in 2025.

Now, Garcia's overall profile is far from perfect.

He still struggled to consistently pull the ball last year, as he ranked in the 9th percentile in pull rate and 23rd percentile in Pull Air%. His barrel rate and max EV percentiles were also pedestrian, at the 24th and 34th percentiles, respectively. That said, as illustrated in his hits spray chart from a season ago, he did a much better job of pulling the ball for home runs, even if the other base hits were a bit more sprayed out. 

A lot of his singles were in the gaps. However, most of his extra base hits were pulled, whether they were home runs or doubles. 

For context, let's take a look at his hits spray chart from 2023 and 2024.

Garcia sprayed the ball a lot more around the field and had more doubles and triples in the gaps. However, the home runs were a little more spread out, resulting in less consistency in launched batted balls and, thus, fewer home runs overall in those 2023 and 2024 seasons. 

Furthermore, by improving his ability to pull and launch the ball, he also posted a better xwOBA trend in 2025 than in his other seasons, which can be seen in the chart below via Savant.

Not only did Garcia see much more consistency in his xwOBA trend last year, but he also saw extraordinary positive spikes that he never reached in 2023 or 2024. That is a positive sign that what he did in 2025 illustrated legitimate hitting growth and wasn't a fluke.

These positive pull and xwOBA trends only justify the five-year extension that Garcia received from the Royals on Friday. The power is developing nicely and will only mature as he gets older and adds more natural strength to his frame. 

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What Kind of Impact Does Garcia Have On the Royals' Payroll Long Term?

The signing of Garcia has the most significant impact on the left side of the Royals' infield, as Kansas City has its shortstop (Bobby Witt Jr.) and third baseman (Garcia) under contract for quite some time. Given that both players won Gold Gloves last year and combined for 13.6 fWAR, that kind of stability is essential for the Royals to be a competitive club in the long term.

What's interesting about the deal is that the Royals will have Witt and Garcia until at least 2030. After 2030, Witt can opt out of the 11-year contract he signed before the 2024 season, and Garcia will be in the final year of his deal (he has that club option in 2030). Rogers made a note of this in her piece on Garcia's signing.

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The deal covers Garcia’s four arbitration years and at least one free agent year with the potential for two if the club option is picked up, keeping Garcia in Kansas City through at least his age-30 season. That means Garcia and Witt, the Royals’ generational shortstop who signed an 11-year contract extension in 2024, are both guaranteed to be in Kansas City through the 2030 season -- extending the Royals’ window of contention with one of baseball’s best left sides of the infield.

Witt is the franchise star for the Royals, but as baseball fans know, a team needs more than one guy to win a World Series. Salvador Perez has had a nice end-of-career resurgence, but he'll be 36 this season and may only have a couple of years left in his illustrious career. Thus, the Royals need young players that they can surround Witt with. Garcia is the first piece Kansas City has committed to in building its long-term offensive core. 

With Garcia signed, the main question is this: who are the Royals going to commit to next?

Vinnie Pasquantino seems like the most logical choice, especially after leading the team in home runs (32) and RBI (113).

He is in his first year of arbitration this offseason, much like Garcia. Unfortunately, Pasquantino doesn't offer the defensive value (-8 career OAA) or baserunning (-10.3 career Baserunning Runs above average). As a result, he has only accumulated a 4.5 fWAR in his career, much lower than Garcia's (9.1 fWAR). That makes it a lot tougher for the Royals to commit in the long term to Pasquantino when all of his value is tied to one particular area (i.e., hitting). 

Other extension options could be Jac Caglianone or Carter Jensen, both rookies a season ago. An extension now for both of them could be cheap, and we have seen other teams give out extensions to players before they had much, if any, MLB time. Colt Keith of the Tigers and Kristian Campbell of the Red Sox are two examples. 

Both Caglianone and Jensen have their fair shares of upside and risks as extension candidates. 

Caglianone may have the best power tool in the organization, even at the Major League level, but he struggled in his rookie debut, posting a 46 wRC+ and -1.6 fWAR in 232 plate appearances. He will need to improve his launch angle and some of his swing decisions in 2026 for the Royals to give him an extension. 

As for Jensen, his MLB debut went as well as it possibly could've. In 69 plate appearances, he posted a 159 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR. His Statcast profile was pretty immaculate as well, with many of his Statcast categories ranking in the upper percentiles of the league, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below.

That said, while Jensen's debut was impressive, it was only 69 plate appearances. The Royals need a larger sample from him in 2026 if they are going to make a significant financial commitment, especially at his age (22). 

Nonetheless, Caglianone and Jensen may be better extension candidates than Pasquantino, mainly because they hold better upside value and are both much younger than Pasquantino (28). 

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What's the Next Big Move This Offseason?

The Royals likely won't extend another player under arbitration this offseason. Conversely, they have more moves to make, especially when it comes to rounding out their lineup, preferably in the outfield. 

Passan, in his write-up about the Garcia deal, mentioned that the Royals have been inquiring heavily in the trade market. While he noted the Royals have been inquiring with the Red Sox about Jarren Duran, which is not new, he said they have also been inquiring with the Nationals regarding shortstop CJ Abrams and pitcher MacKenzie Gore.

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The Royals have been active on the trade market too, looking to acquire another outfielder. They have discussed acquiring Jarren Duran from the Boston Red Sox and inquired about pitcher MacKenzie Gore and infielder CJ Abrams from the Washington Nationals, according to sources. Though the talks haven't yielded a deal, the Royals' efforts to improve on an 82-80 season are clear.

Abrams and Gore is an interesting discussion, mainly because Abrams plays the same position as Witt, and Gore is a pitcher. That said, Abrams has been rumored to be a candidate to move positions, especially after posting a -11 OAA last year at shortstop for the Nationals. The former Padres first-round pick could move to second base or possibly left field, where his speed and athleticism should profile well.

Abrams' Statcast percentiles weren't eye-popping, but he still has some upside at 25, and he pulled the ball effectively last year for Washington as well.

As for Gore, his possible acquisition may be a contingency plan for the Royals' rotation, especially if they need to trade away Cole Ragans for a big-time outfielder like Duran or someone else on the trade market (maybe Teoscar Hernandez, though he wouldn't be worth an asset like Ragans). Picollo, during the Winter Meetings, mentioned that the Royals needed an "ace" like Ragans to be competitive in the postseason. Could Gore fill that "Ragans" role?

The TJ Stats summary profile for Gore compares quite favorably to Ragans', which could force the Royals to pull the trigger on a Ragans trade this offseason.

Granted, while trade talks are circulating even more since the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, the Royals still have a lot of legwork to do to make one or any of these deals a reality. A lot of moving parts have to click first, and that could take weeks.

Still, the Royals are going to be aggressive this offseason, not only in building their long-term future, as was the case with Garcia, but also in shaping their team for 2026. Garcia's contract stability gives Picollo one less deal to worry about, which should help him focus on that much-needed big-time trade or free-agent signing this offseason.

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[Hokius]

Love this extension. It's a great deal and it's great to keep Maikel for a long time.

[Kevin O'Brien]

19 hours ago, Hokius said:

Love this extension. It's a great deal and it's great to keep Maikel for a long time.

Agreed. He definitely was the one I wanted the Royals to extend first. The left side of the infield is going o to be in incredible shape long term.