How and Why the Royals May Need to Trade Kris Bubic

The Kansas City Royals currently live in the enviable position of having “excess” starting pitching. As you may have heard, though, “You can never have too much pitching”. The Royals certainly clung to this old adage during the 2018 MLB draft when they selected pitchers with their first five picks and eight of their first ten picks. Those first five picks were:

1st Round (18th overall): Brady Singer, RHP (Florida) 
He was traded for Jonathan India last offseason.

1st Round (33rd overall): Jackson Kowar, RHP (Florida) 
He is now with the Mariners and dealing with injuries.

1st Round (34th overall): Daniel Lynch IV, LHP (Virginia)
He pitched 131 innings in 2022; now dealing with injuries and became a reliever.

1st Round (40th overall): Kris Bubic, LHP (Stanford) 
He pitched 130 innings in 2021 and 2022, then went down with Tommy John surgery in 2023. He made a strong return in 2025 only to miss the second half with a rotator cuff strain

2nd Round (#58th overall): Jonathan Bowlan, RHP (Memphis) 
Bowlan finally has pitched more than three innings in a year reaching 44 1/3 innings pitched as a reliever in 2025. 

All five have made contributions to the major-league team, but not quite at the level anyone expected or at least hoped. Singer was meant to be the new Number Two in the rotation, but he has not lived up to the hype acting as an innings eating Number Three or Four guy. Kowar, Lynch, and Bubic have all dealt with a myriad of injuries in their time with the club while Bowlan took a little longer to debut. 

With Singer already traded away in an attempt to fill the hole at second base with Jonathan India, Lynch, and especially Bubic, have managed to generate enough results to garner interest on the trade market this off-season. Bubic has been the hot name given his 2.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 116 innings pitched before going down with the rotator cuff injury. He’s in the last year of arbitration before free agency with an estimated salary of $6.0 million per MLB Trade Rumors. The Royals have a major need for a corner outfielder and JJ Piccolo has mentioned a willingness to trade from their current stock of starting pitching to fill this need akin to the Singer-India trade.  

The Royals were not terribly far from the playoffs in 2025 finishing six games back from the division-winning Cleveland Guardians and five games back from the second American League Wild Card spot. The big stain on the season was a horrific June when they went 8-18 losing six in a row twice and eight of their last nine that month. They also did not play well against Cleveland and Detroit, the top two teams, going 5-8 and 4-9 against them, respectively. This could suggest to some that they are not in as good of a position as they might think, but owner John Sherman is set to spend a similar amount on payroll this year in an effort to return to the postseason. If I’m JJ Piccolo, I’m looking to move Bubic.

The Royals were dead last by Wins Above Average at both left and right field in 2025 with a -2.6 and -3.9, respectively, per Baseball Reference. Drew Waters and John Rave rotated between the two while they tried to get Jac Caglianone’s bat in the lineup via right field to spark the sputtering offense to little effect. Mike Yastrzemski, who had the second most plate appearances in right field, is no longer with the team, so the Royals desperately need to make an addition here in the corner outfield.

Projections for Bubic from Steamer and Fangraphs Depth Charts have him pitching 155 innings with 9 Wins, a 3.79 ERA, and rate of 8.6 strikeout/9 innings which is good for about 2.5 Wins Above Replacement. 

Trade Option 1 - St. Louis Cardinals
Royals Get: Lars Nootbaar, Left Field

• 2025 Stats: .248 AVG/.345 OBP/.409 SLG; 1.7 WAR

• 2026 Steamer Projection: 444 PA - 52 R, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB

Cardinals Get: Kris Bubic, LHP and Angel Zerpa, LHP

• Bubic

  • 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR

• Zerpa

  • 2026 Steamer Projection: 61 IP - 3 Wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 56 SO, 0.4 WAR

Nootbaar has two years of control left, entering his second year of arbitration in 2026 with an estimated salary of $5.7M per MLB Trade Rumors. Even though these two teams are intrastate rivals, they may be able to hold their nose for this deal as it is purely need-for-need as the Cardinals are desperate for starting pitching after dealing Sonny Gray and the Royals need their corner outfield upgraded.

Nootbaar had a noticeable down year in 2025 and dealt with an intercostal and rib injury that made him miss 18 games. This was likely bothering him before he officially went on the IL at the end of June as he had a batting average of .169 in June, .219 in July, then popped back up to.284 in August. His barrel percentage (how often the batter hits the ideal launch angle and exit velocity), exit velocity, and strikeout rate stayed consistent from 2024, but he hit balls in the air at a much higher rate getting under it 30.2 percent of the time compared to his career 23.9 percent rate and 19 percent rate in 2023 and 2024. 

Nootbaar still had an above average year for plate discipline and quality of contact overall, two things that the Royals strive for with their hitters. Notably he had a 11-percent walk rate (80th percentile of MLB) and a 50-percent hard-hit rate (87th percentile in MLB). He also strikes out 20% of the time, right around MLB average, and maintains an above average bat speed which leads to higher quality contact. 

Zerpa has been mostly a reliever with a couple of spot starts for the Royals as needed. He sports a sinker-slider combo to generate a 99th percentile ground ball rate of 63.7%. His fastball velocity sits at 96 MPH from the left side and is still only 26 years old. He won’t hit free agency until 2029. 

Trade Option 2 - Chicago Cubs
Royals Get: Owen Caissie, Left Field, Jefferson Rojas, Second Base

• Owen Caissie 

  • 2025 Stats: .237 AVG/.315 OBP/.405 SLG; 0.5 WAR

  • 2026 Steamer Projection: 269 PA - 31 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB

• Jefferson Rojas

  • 2025 (High-A, AA): 471 PA - 67 R, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 19 SB

    • .236 AVG/.343 OBP/.387 SLG

Cubs Get: LHP Kris Bubic, C Blake Mitchell, RHP Felix Arronde 

• Kris Bubic, LHP

  • 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR

• Blake Mitchell, Catcher

  • 2025 (CPX and High-A): 255 PA - 28 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 SB

    • .218 AVG/.390 OBP/.320 SLG

• Felix Arronde, RHP

  • 2025 (High-A): 128.2 IP - 5 Wins, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 101 SO

Caissie and Rojas are two of the Cubs’ Top 5 prospects and fill two needs for the Royals at left field and second base. Now, Caissie is the only one ready to slide into the lineup on opening day in 2026 as Rojas will likely be major league ready in 2027, but Rojas is only 20 years old and has at least a 50 Future Value scouting grade - good for about 2 Wins Above Replacement much better than the negative WAR that Jonathan India and Michael Massey were able to provide. The Royals signed India to a one-year contract for 2026 to fill the second base gap for at least one more year. 

Caissie is MLB Pipeline’s top prospect for the Cubs with 30-homer power and producing well against older competition throughout his time in the minors. The 23-year-old had a small part in 2025 in the majors only appearing in 12 games and striking out 40% of the time in 27 plate appearances, but there’s always an adjustment period. The great power comes from a long swing that does elevate his strikeout rate even clocking in close to 30% in the minors. His modest fielding will keep him in a corner outfield spot, right where the Royals need him.

Rojas will be turning 21 next year and has spent most of his time at shortstop in the minors. As he adds strength, he will be more likely to shift over to second base, especially with Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him and the Royals need for at least league average at the position. Scouts love his swing and will need to make some adjustments to breaking balls, as do all prospects. He doesn’t strike out a ton (a hallmark of Royals baseball) and will not be hitting lots of home runs, but all the Royals need him to do is get on base and play good defense.

Blake Mitchell is the Royals top prospect aside from the soon-to-graduate Carter Jensen. Drafted 8th overall out of high school in 2023, many Royals fans were shocked to see such a risk taken. A broken hamate sidelined him for a portion of the year, only playing in 60 games, but he showed his likely three-true outcome path in the majors hitting for low average and a high walk and strikeout rate. He has good power and a strong arm but can struggle to throw runners out. With Salvador Perez and Jensen ahead of him, it’s time to trade from a position of strength. He should be knocking on the Cubs’ door in 2027.

Arronde had a great year in High-A, improving on his total innings, Wins, and ERA from 2024. His arsenal includes a fastball that sits around 94mph, an average slider, and a great split-changeup. He’s still young and needs to add strength but has shown the durability for being a starter, likely to slot in at a number 3 or 4. If he doesn’t improve a ton on his slider, he’s a great closer candidate in a few years with that changeup. 

Teams always need starting pitching and there are several trade candidates out there for the Royals to pursue. If they choose not to go the trade route and hang on to their excess starting pitching, it could be a safer option to sign a cheaper free agent akin to Mike Yastrzemski to hold the line one more year before giving a chance to Gavin Cross or Carson Roccaforte. The winter meetings are coming up soon, perhaps there is room for a deal or two.

Should the Royals deal Kris Bubic this offseason after his return and All-Star performance? Do either of these packages make sense?