What's Going On With the Royals Starting Rotation?

Starting pitching has been key to the Kansas City Royals' success over the past two years. 

In 2024, the Royals ranked second in starting pitching fWAR with a 16.5 mark, behind only the Atlanta Braves (17.4). They also ranked second in ERA (3.55) and fourth in FIP (3.68). That excellent rotation was a big reason why the Royals won 86 games, a 30-win turnaround from the previous season. 

In 2025, Kansas City went 82-80, a four-win regression from 2024. However, the starting pitching remained a strength of the ballclub. 

The Royals' rotation ranked 6th in starting pitcher fWAR at 13.8. They also ranked 7th in starting pitcher ERA (3.80) and 10th in FIP (4.00). While that wasn't as elite as the previous season, their rotation was a big reason the Royals had another above-.500 season last year, the first time they have done that since 2014 and 2015. 

This season, the results have been a little more mixed for the Royals' starting pitching. 

Going into Monday's games, Kansas City ranks 13th in fWAR (2.7). Royals starters also rank 14th in ERA (4.01) and 16th in FIP (4.16). Granted, that's serviceable, especially with the offense and bullpen trending in the right direction recently. Conversely, the Royals' rotation has shown many flaws recently, especially over the past couple of weeks.

Thus, let's see why the Royals' starting pitchers have been struggling as of late, which ones have been particularly bad, and what Royals management could do to address and rectify these recent starting pitching woes. 

The Royals' Rotation Struggles Over the Past Two Weeks

Since April 19th, the Royals' rotation has particularly struggled. Though they rank 19th in SP fWAR with a 0.9 mark, they also rank 25th in ERA (5.16). Their FIP is slightly better at 4.53, ranking 17th. Nonetheless, the Royals' rotation hasn't been as strong as it was at the beginning of the season, when they ranked 5th in SP ERA (3.25), 14th in FIP (3.91), and 11th in SP fWAR (1.9). 

When it comes to the individual Royals starting pitcher results, here's how they have fared since April 19th, according to Fangraphs.

Kris Bubic has been solid, with a 2.55 ERA in 18 IP. However, his FIP is a bit higher at 3.76 due to his high BB/9 and batted-ball luck (.255 BABIP). Seth Lugo has been okay in terms of ERA (4.19), but his 3.25 FIP is the second-best mark of Royals starting pitchers during that stretch. 

The starting pitchers that particularly stick out are Noah Cameron, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha.

Cameron, Ragans, and Wacha have posted lackluster ERAs, each over 5.00, over the past two weeks. Ragans and Wacha have been the worst, with not just a 6.89 and 8.71 ERA, respectively, but also a FIP of 7.87 and 5.47, as well. 

Walks have been the primary problem with Ragans and Wacha. Even though he's been generating a 14.4 K/9 since April 19th, Ragans also has a 6.3 BB/9, the worst mark of the five Royals starting pitchers over that time frame. Wacha has been the second-worst with a 5.2 BB/9. Ragans has been a little luckier when it comes to BABIP (.214) and LOB% (84.5%) compared to Wacha (.406 BABIP and 60.4% LOB%). That explains why Ragans has an FIP 2.40 points higher than the veteran righty.

Another area where Wacha and Ragans have struggled is limiting the longball. Wacha's HR/9 is 1.7, and Ragans' is nearly double that at 4.0. It's hard for either pitcher to have success when they are allowing so many home runs.

Cameron's ERA isn't good, but his FIP is much better at 2.55, which is actually the best mark of Royals starting pitchers since April 19th. Cameron has been getting hit a lot, as evidenced by his .436 BABIP, and he's allowing runners to score as a result. That said, his K/9 and BB/9 marks are solid, and he's at least preventing the long ball.

What Did Those Metrics Look Like Before April 19th?

So we know the Royals' starting pitchers have struggled since April 19th. However, what did the metrics on these pitchers look like from Opening Day to April 18th? Well, let's take a look at that data below, via Fangraphs.

Luinder Avila only had a one-start sample, and he likely will remain in the bullpen for the remainder of the year. However, the other numbers from the Royals' starting pitchers from March 26th to April 18th are intriguing for a variety of reasons.

While Wacha has been the worst Royals starting pitcher since April 19th, he was the best Royals starting pitcher from Opening Day to April 18th.

In 27 IP, he had a 1.00 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 3.41 FIP. He experienced some positive batted-ball luck, with a .172 BABIP and 99% LOB%. Those weren't going to be sustainable marks, but it showed that Wacha was at least efficient and crafty enough to eat innings and minimize the runs.

Ragans' line is a little more interesting.

The ERA was better at 3.78, but his K/9 (8.6) and FIP (5.37) were worse, and his BB/9 (5.4) wasn't much better either. That said, he had a better groundball rate at 46.3%, and his ability to keep the ball on the ground seemed to minimize the LOB% (79.8) and HR/9 (1.6). It would be nice to see if Ragans can get back to those groundball-generating ways, even if it means that his K/9 takes a bit of a hit in the process.

Lastly, Cameron's line was pretty similar to his post-April 19th numbers. His ERA was mediocre at 5.40, and his FIP was worse at 5.60. He struggled to strand runners (68.2%), and he had a much harder time generating groundballs as well (25.8%). The positive? He struck out a decent amount (7.7 K/9) and didn't walk a lot either (2.7 BB/9). 

That said, those K/9 and BB/9 numbers were pretty similar to the ones he produced after April 19th as well. That shows what we're seeing from Cameron may be who he is: a plus-five ERA starting pitcher. 

Can This Rotation Improve? (Limiting the Walks Will Be Key)

The good thing is that Lugo and Bubic have been solid, not just since April 19th but also before then. While neither guy is a frontline ace, they can take the ball and keep the Royals in the ballgame consistently. That's all you can ask from a No. 2-3 caliber starting pitcher. 

The main question marks are Wacha, Ragans, and Cameron, who arguably were the three best Royals pitchers coming into the 2025 season.

On a positive note, it seems like Wacha took a step in the right direction on Monday, as he went seven innings and produced a winning effort. While he gave up a two-run homer to David Fry, he limited the Guardians to just four hits and one walk. While he didn't generate a ton of chase, Wacha did a great job generating chase and limiting hard contact, as illustrated in his TJ Stuff+ summary.

With Wacha bouncing back, the honus will now fall on Ragans to do the same, especially in this crucial homestand against the Guardians and Tigers.

Cameron was initially slated to get the first shot on Tuesday against Gavin Williams (tough). The St. Joseph, Missouri product has some good stuff on his secondary pitches, but his four-seamer is lackluster. He has an overall TJ Stuff+ of 97, but his four-seamer has a TJ Stuff+ of 92. That has had an effect on his results, both in terms of the four-seamer and overall, as illustrated below in his TJ Stats season summary.

However, after Monday's 6-2 win over Cleveland, the Royals announced that Cameron was dealing with lower back tightness and that Stephen Kolek, who is pitching in Omaha on a rehab assignment, will replace him in the rotation. 

No word yet on whether Cameron will go on the IL or replace someone else on the active roster. Kolek's TJ Stuff+ profile is similar to Cameron's, but Kolek has done a much better job of generating chase and minimizing xwOBACON in Triple-A Omaha this season. If Kolek does well in Cameron's absence, it's possible that the former Padres righty could replace Cameron in the rotation (or at least piggyback with Cameron).

Lastly, Ragans will go on Wednesday against fellow Joey Cantillo. Despite Ragans' overall struggles this year, he's been much better at home than on the road.

In 12 IP at Kauffman Stadium, Ragans has a 0.75 ERA, 14.25 K/9, 19.00 K/BB ratio, and 1.31 FIP. On the road? In 20.1 IP, he has a 7.97 ERA, 9.74 K/9, 1.10 K/BB, and 9.69 FIP. Thus, the lefty will at least get one start at home this week, where he has seemed to be more comfortable on the mound. 

With Ragans, it's not a question of stuff, as his TJ Stuff+ marks remain solid despite inconsistent results. That said, despite strong TJ Stuff+ marks, the chase, whiff, and xwOBACON have not been as stellar, as illustrated below.

If Ragans can find the zone a bit more (44.2% zone rate), especially with his slider (19.2% zone rate), then I think Ragans can induce hitters to chase more. More chases could lead not just to more whiffs, but also to a lower xwOBACON. If those three trends happen, then it's possible that Ragans will get back to that 2024 form, which he has shown at home this year, sooner rather than later.

Overall, the Royals need better performances from Wacha, Ragans, Cameron, and Kolek, especially during this homestand (Wacha is expected to pitch twice; whether Kolek goes twice this week depends on how Tuesday's outing goes). That said, the Royals' rotation overall needs to improve its control, as they have simply walked too many batters over the past two weeks.

Since April 19th, the Royals' pitching staff ranks 27th in BB/9 (4.56), tied with Atlanta and ahead of only Houston (5.03) and Arizona (5.33). Wacha and Ragans have been the main culprits. However, Cameron (and now, Kolek), Lugo, and Bubic can certainly do their part to flood the strike zone more consistently as well. All the pitchers in the Royals' rotation have had outings and stretches where they have allowed too many free passes, and it's often bitten them in the butt.

The Royals have struggled with BB/9 at home, ranking 27th at Kauffman Stadium compared to 23rd on the road. Could the Kansas City starting pitchers begin to reverse that trend this week?

They allowed only one walk among Wacha, Matt Strahm, and Alex Lange on Monday against Cleveland.

Thus, the Kansas City pitching staff, starters especially, have gotten off to an encouraging start in this homestand.