What Happened To Carter Jensen’s Power Decline?

After an explosive start to his second year with the Kansas City Royals, Carter Jensen’s power has been considerably limited over the last two months of the season. Jensen has just one home run in his last 56 plate appearances, and his OPS has plummeted to .508 over that span. After posting a 108 wRC+ and 1.6 fWAR from March/April through June, he has fallen to a 69 wRC+ and 0.1 fWAR since July.

Contrary to what happens to hitters when they get trapped in a slump, plate discipline has not been the reason for the collapse.

As you can see, Jensen is not chasing more pitches outside the zone, and he remains the same hitter prone to lifting the ball. He is taking more swings against pitches in the strike zone, and he has increased his contact. The problems come after he makes contact. His HR/FB% rate has fallen by 3.3%, and that loss of impact in his swing has been the most concerning because of what it has meant for the Royals. But he has also lost the rhythm in the production of the rest of his contact.

The version of Jensen we saw during the first three months of the season really did not show that he can survive without his power. In fact, during this slump that has affected him since the beginning of July, Jensen has had a 2.0% increase in his BB-K% rate, while his .293 wOBA has dropped to .282. Nothing about his plate discipline is causing the problem here.

That said, let’s go back for a moment to September 2025. Jensen was called up to make his debut and posted an exciting .300/.391/.550 offensive line, with three home runs, 13 RBIs and a 159 OPS+ in his first 69 plate appearances. Two of his three home runs came against fastballs. In April, Jensen began hammering the fastball at a phenomenal rate: he averaged a .603 xSLG in 52 plate appearances and hit six home runs on his 30 balls in play. In other words, taking September 2025 and April 2026, he had hit eight home runs in his first 49 balls in play against Major League fastballs. That was something that quickly placed his ability at a higher level for a second-year player.

Between March/April and June, 12 of Jensen’s 15 home runs came against fastballs, so the opposition was beginning to have a more serious task ahead. Since July, they have managed to stop him.

Carter Jensen vs. Fastballs

Jensen’s swing is still hitting the ball hard. His Barrel/BBE rate has improved by 4.7%, his Hard Hit% has not fallen, and there are no major differences in his whiff rate. The inconsistencies in his swing against fastballs begin to appear in his low production when he puts the ball in play. Even the difference in HR% does not seem notable, but the collapse in BABIP has been devastating.

Let’s look at the differences against each type of fastball:

As expected, the major drops in BABIP have affected Jensen’s xSLG, and his high strikeout rates add to this. He has not hit another home run against the sinker since he hit the first pitch of the game on June 30 for a 421-ft home run against Rays right-hander Griffin Jax.

There is one detail we cannot forget: Jensen had just turned 23 on July 3. This has been his first season as a starter. He has played 123 games and has accumulated 488 plate appearances. This is the first time in his career that he is dealing with the pressure of having to make immediate adjustments. There is no doubt he has the talent to prevail, and he has earned the opportunity with the Royals. He has already shown that his swing can impact high velocity. The opposition has found a way to counter his explosiveness at the plate, and now the challenge for Jensen is to make his contact ability and power resurface.

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