Week in Review: We Need to Talk About Seth Lugo

 Week in a Nutshell 

The Kansas City Royals continued their hot play on the road, as they took four of six on this most recent road trip.

It wasn't exactly an easy slate, as they faced off against the Blue Jays and Guardians, two teams in a better position for a Wild Card playoff berth. However, Kansas City held its own against both teams and kept its postseason hopes alive, though they remain slim (0.1% as of Sunday, according to Fangraphs).

Even though it was a positive road trip overall, some concerns this week kept it from being fully encouraging. These issues could shape how Royals President of Baseball Operations approaches this offseason. Those concerns were particularly amplified in Sunday's series finale, as the Royals lost by 10 runs to the Guardians, their worst loss in a series finale since August 9th, when they lost to the Cubs 10-2 at Kauffman Stadium. 

Record this Week: 4-2

Run Differential for the Week: +8

Record for the Year: 62-76

Run Differential for the Year: -83

Standing: 5th in the AL Central

One Sentence Game Summaries

Game 133: KC 5, TOR 3

• The Royals extend their winning streak to nine in Toronto thanks to a strong performance from Lugo. 

Game 134: TOR 3, KC 0

• Toronto's Nathan Luke hits a three-run home run that snaps the Royals' season-long win streak. 

Game 135: KC 13, TOR 2

• Jensen and Cags lead offense in 11-run blowout of Blue Jays in series finale. 

Game 136: KC 3, CLE 0

• Wacha has best outing of year, shutting out Cleveland, striking out 10 in eight innings of work. 

Game 137: KC 8, CLE 3

• Rojas has big day off bench with two hits and four RBIs to clinch series for Kansas City. 

Game 138: CLE 11, KC 1

• Lugo is pummeled in series finale, giving up 9 runs in 3.2 IP. 

News and Notes

The Royals got more tough injury news in Toronto. Michael Massey hit the field hard on a play and was pulled from the game. Kansas City put him on the 7-Day Concussion IL and called up Josh Rojas in his place. Furthermore, they also promoted Anthony Gose from Omaha and optioned right-hander Mason Black to Triple-A. 

A minor move happened on Saturday, though nothing official has happened in terms of "transactions." After the Guardians game, the Royals put John Schreiber on waivers. This lets a team pick him up for the rest of the season. 

Schreiber will be owed $600,000 by any team that claims him on waivers. Teams have 48 hours to claim him, or he stays on the Royals roster for the rest of the year. Schreiber will be a free agent after this season, and it's likely that the Royals will not bring him back for 2027. 

The Standouts

It was an excellent week for the Royals' young pair of hitters: Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.

After a tough stretch, Jensen has seemed to get locked back in at the plate. In 22 at-bats this week, he hit .273 with a .978 OPS. The Royals catcher had two home runs, four RBI, seven walks, and an OBP of .433. Jensen has swing-and-miss issues, but when he's seeing the ball well, he's either laying off bad pitches or hitting bombs. 

This week, the 23-year-old did an excellent job of not chasing, minimizing strikeouts, and hitting the ball hard, as shown in his Statcast percentiles below. 

Cags was even better this week than his fellow 23-year-old. 

The former Florida Gator led all Royals in hits with 10 this week and hit .435 with a 1.087 OPS in 23 at-bats. He also had two doubles, a homer, and six RBI. On the flip side, Cags didn't walk at all, and he struck out six times. However, Royals fans can live with his free-swinging approach if it produces results. That certainly was the case, according to his Statcast percentiles this week.

100th percentile 90th% EV? 99th percentile LA Sweet-Spot%? 93rd percentile barrel%? That will certainly work for the Royals lineup, especially in the No. 3 spot in the batting order. Thus, it makes sense why Cags is being floated as an extension candidate this offseason. 

On the pitching end, the main story this past week was Michael Wacha, who absolutely dominated the Guardians on Friday night. Not only did he pitch eight innings of shutout ball, but he struck out 10, and his velocity and other Statcast metrics were all up, as evidenced in the Statcast percentiles summary below. 

It's only one outing. That said, it was an impressive one, especially with it coming against a division foe like the Guardians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, a place where the Royals have struggled for a while. While Wacha is piling on the innings, he looks stronger than ever on the mound, which is not only encouraging for this stretch run, but 2027 as well.

Wacha is proving that despite his age, he may be able to carry the Royals rotation in the No. 1 or 2 spot next year, something that didn't feel likely a month ago. If Wacha finishes the 2026 season strong, then the Royals can add a couple of pieces around Wacha this offseason, with the thought that the All-Star will be Kansas City's 2027 Opening Day starter. 

The Questionable

I want to focus on one player here: Seth Lugo, who was absolutely thrashed by the Guardians on Sunday. 

After giving up nine runs in this most recent outing, Lugo's ERA ballooned to 5.03. That would tie him with Philadelphia's Aaron Nola for the third-worst ERA of qualified starting pitchers in baseball (Lugo had the 5th-worst ERA going into his Sunday start). 

In 28 starts and 154 IP this year, Lugo has a 5.03 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. This is the second straight year his ERA has increased significantly, rising from 3.00 in 2024 to 4.13 in 2025. Furthermore, when looking at his Statcast Percentiles Summary via TJ Stats, he's done a good job of limiting walks and finding the strike zone. Unfortunately, beyond those two areas, he's rated as subpar in most categories. 

Not only is Lugo struggling to generate swinging strikes (6th percentile), but he's not generating any chase either (3rd percentile O-Swing%). Add that with a hard-hit rate that ranks in the 15th percentile, and it's not surprising that Lugo is having a career-worst year as a starting pitcher. 

The big issue is that Lugo has particularly regressed in the second half this year, especially with his control. 

Before the All-Star Break, the 36-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 104.2 IP. This is what his TJ Stuff+ summary looked like in the first half, via TJ Stats. 

His chase%, whiff%, and xwOBACON were all subpar before the All-Star Break. However, he did a good job of throwing strikes, as evidenced by a 53.3% zone rate and 64.4% strike rate. That helped him maintain a low walk rate at 7.6%, which helped him maintain an 11.6% K-BB% despite a sub-20% K%. 

In the second half, he has a 6.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 49.1 IP. When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary since July 17th (his first second-half start), the main issue seems to be a dip in the zone rate. 

Interestingly enough, the stuff overall has been slightly better (99 TJ Stuff+ compared to 98 in the first half), the chase% and whiff% have been the same, and the xwOBACON has been better (.337 to .419 in the first half). The main issue? His 48.4% zone rate and 62.5% strike rate are 4.9% and 1.9% lower in the second half, respectively. The walks are slightly up, the strikeouts are down, and as a result, his K-BB% of 8.0% is 3.6% worse. 

It's hard to be an effective starting pitcher with a sub-10% K-BB%, and Lugo is certainly experiencing that dilemma right now. 

It's not just the numbers that have been bad for Lugo in the second half. In Sunday's game, he didn't run to first base quickly enough, and Cleveland's Steven Kwan ran out what should've been an easy groundout at first base. The Guardians made Lugo pay with a three-run inning, which pushed the lead to five runs at the end of the third. 

The Royals couldn't recover after that brutal inning. 

And that's frustrating to see, especially from a pitcher who's not only won a Gold Glove and finished second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2024, but also is owed $21.5 million this year and next. The Royals need more from a guy who's making $43 million this year and next, and has the option to make $20 million in 2028. 

Lugo was paid at the end of last year to not necessarily be an ace, but a No. 2 or 3 pitcher. Now? He looks like the fifth-best pitcher in the Royals rotation, behind Noah Cameron, who is only in his second year at the Major League level.

What's interesting to see is that Lugo wasn't bad on Tuesday in the Royals' win over the Jays. The control was a bit erratic (sub-50% zone rate), but he generated a 27.9% whiff rate and 101 overall TJ Stuff+. 

It looked like Lugo was turning the corner into becoming a better strikeout pitcher down the stretch, much like Wacha. Now, after Sunday's disaster, that progress is questionable. 

The Royals need to see Lugo rebound in some fashion in September. If he doesn't, they may need to make some tough decisions with him in 2027, whether that's putting him on the trade block or perhaps moving back to the bullpen if he continues to struggle in a starting role. 

They can't compete for a playoff spot next year with a starting pitcher who has an ERA over five. 

Looking Ahead

The Royals return to Kauffman Stadium for a long homestand that includes series against the Marlins (Tuesday-Thursday), Blue Jays (Friday-Sunday) and Diamondbacks (Monday-Wednesday). The Royals' playoff chances are slim, but if they want to stay alive, they will need to sweep at least one series, maybe two. Even a 6-3 homestand may not be enough. They need to go 8-1 or 7-2, at the very least, to stay in the playoff hunt. 

They are at least catching some teams at the right time. 

The Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 games and struggled in their last series against a Nationals team that is 65-74. The Blue Jays rebounded and swept a flailing Mariners team at the Rogers Centre this weekend. However, they lost 2 of 3 at home to the Royals and have traditionally struggled at Kauffman.

Lastly, the Diamondbacks were inconsistent against a Giants team this weekend that's worse than the Royals, and Arizona is dealing with the drama surrounding star second baseman Ketel Marte. 

If the Royals truly believe they are a playoff team, they need 7 or more wins this homestand (and honestly, I believe 8 or 9 is necessary; 7 may not be enough). 

Anything less? They should look to call up some young guys in Omaha or Northwest Arkansas and give some Minor Leaguers MLB debuts when they hit the road next week for a long final road trip that includes stops in Boston, Houston, and Pittsburgh.  

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