Three Things Jac Caglianone Has to Do to Play More Regularly

Many frustrated Royals fans have been advocating for more at-bats from Jac Caglianone, especially against left-handed pitchers.

This season, Cags has only received 36 plate appearances against lefties, compared to 120 against right-handed pitchers. It makes sense when looking at the data. Against lefties, Caglianone is hitting .171 with a .508 OPS. Against righties? He's hitting .271 with an .817 OPS. 

Thus, it makes sense that manager Matt Quatraro would want to put Cags in situations where he can succeed the most. That said, this Royals lineup is searching for answers to their "run-generating" issues. Going into Wednesday's game, they rank 27th in the league in runs scored and were limited to two runs combined in their first two games against the Red Sox this week (they have scored three on Wednesday night so far). 

With his batted-ball profile and tremendous power, Caglianone could help with the Royals' "runs" woes, especially if he can move up in the batting order and replace Vinnie Pasquantino (.604 OPS) or Salvador Perez (.591 OPS) in the three or four spot. Cags' Statcast profile, especially in those exit velocity, barrel, hard-hit, and launch angle categories, may be the most impressive of any Royals hitter on the team not named Bobby Witt Jr. 

However, Quatraro shouldn't simply give Cags that spot and the trust to hit against lefties and righties. The former Florida product needs to earn it, because the Royals right now don't need "upside", they need production. This isn't a rebuilding team (yet). This is one with playoff hopes and aspirations in a division that's been incredibly mediocre. 

For Cags to play more and justify a regular spot in the batting order, here are three things that need to happen with him going forward this season.

Improve His Swing Decisions Against Lefties

When looking at Cags' differences in performance against lefties and righties, TJ Stats' Statcast percentiles splits chart is a great tool for seeing how hitters perform against each in a single graphic. Here's a look at Caglianone Statcast percentiles splits via TJ Stats.

As Royals fans can see above, there are a lot of categories where Jac lags against lefties. The biggest differences are in Z-Swing%, O-Swing%, and Strike%.

Against lefties, Cags ranks in the 7th percentile in Z-Swing% (swings on pitches in the strike zone), 11th percentile in O-Swing% (swings outside the strike zone), and 94th percentile in Strike% (percentage of pitches he's seen that are strikes). Conversely, against righties, he ranks in the 60th percentile in Z-Swing%, 57th percentile in O-Swing%, and 19th percentile in Strike% (lower is good in this case). 

So what do these metrics mean?

Against lefties, Cags is swinging more, chasing less, and facing more challenges from pitchers. Unfortunately, he's being challenged because the production isn't there against lefties (1st percentile xwOBA), and he tends to chase. His chase issues are also prevalent against breaking pitches.

Below is his pitch result zone chart against breaking balls from left-handed pitchers. Safe to say, he's tended to chase on a lot of those pitches this year, especially those out of the strike zone.

He's had four hits on those pitches (two singles and two doubles), but he also has six strikeouts. Here's an example of him striking out badly on a sweeper from the White Sox's Anthony Kay on April 9th. 

Not only does Cags need to do a better job of picking up and laying off those breaking balls out of the zone better, but he needs to be a little more aggressive on pitches in the zone, especially early in the count. Pitchers are challenging him early because they know he will not swing early against lefties. That's why his Strike% is so high, putting him behind in counts. 

Increasing that Z-Strike%, especially early in the count, could help his production and encourage left-handed pitchers to be more prudent with him in terms of how they attack him. 

Cags Needs to Launch the Ball Better Against Lefties

Another big difference in Cags' Statcast splits is that he launches the ball much worse against lefties than righties. 

Against righties, he has a 40.5% LA Sweet-Spot%, which ranks in the 86th percentile. Here's a look at his radial chart against righties, which shows a lot of batted balls elevated productively, especially base hits. 

Against lefties, however, the results have been much different. His LA Sweet-Spot% is 31.8% against lefties, which ranks in the 18th percentile. Furthermore, here's a look at his radial chart against left-hander pitchers this year, via Savant.

Caglianone has a couple of doubles and a home run, but for the most part, the ball is being hit on the ground (albeit hard). That is not a recipe for success, which explains why his barrel rate is 4.5% against lefties despite an average exit velocity of 92.2 MPH on batted balls against lefties. That isn't much worse than his 94.8 MPH average exit velocity against righties, which ranks in the 98th percentile.

Launch angle can be a challenging thing for a hitter to correct. Yes, it can be tied to mechanical issues with the swing. However, for the most part, it's often heavily tied to swing decisions and pitch recognition. Cags' bat speed is 73 MPH against lefties, which is 2.3 MPH slower than his bat speed against righties. Is Cags too hesitant in his swing decisions against lefties? Is he not picking up the ball well and reacting too late, which explains the bat speed decline? 

If Cags and the Royals' hitting coaches can figure out the issues, then perhaps Cags can increase his bat speed against lefties. If that happens, then it is likely that we will see the barrels and, more importantly, the launch angle on batted balls against lefties improve. 

A launch angle sweet-spot% against left-handed pitchers that is closer to his rate against right-handed pitchers will help Cags be more productive against lefties and make him worthy of being an everyday bat in the Royals lineup this season.

Improve With Runners in Scoring Position

I shared this in my post on Wednesday morning, but the Royals have not been good with runners in scoring position this year. Below is a table that shows how Royals hitters have fared this year in RISP situations, via Fangraphs.

As Royals fans can see, Cags has been the third-worst Royals hitter in RISP situations with a -21 wRC+ mark. The only hitters who have been worse are Starling Marte (-57 wRC+) and Tyler Tolbert (-100 wRC+). Tolbert only had 1 plate appearance in a RISP situation and is currently in Triple-A.

For those who want metrics other than wRC+, here's how Cags breaks them down into some more "easily understood" categories.

• 36.7% K% (2nd worst)
• 3.3% BB% (5th worst)
• .138 average (3rd worst)
• .167 OBP (3rd worst)
• .138 SLG (3rd worst)

It's bad enough that he's striking out a ton in RISP situations. However, the fact that he's not making any productive or hard-hit contact either is also concerning, especially for a hitter that many Royals fans want in the No. 3 or 4 spot in the batting order.

It's also interesting to see how Cags has done not just in situations where the bases are empty, but even with runners on base. Here's a breakdown of his numbers in those categories.

• Bases Empty: .271/.354/.506, .860 OPS, 138 wRC+.
• Men on Base: .211/.250/..316, .566 OPS, 54 wRC+.

As we can see, it's not just RISP situations where Cags has struggled. He also has underperformed in situations with runners on base in general. There is an 84-point difference between his wRC+ with the bases empty and with men on base. That's far too great a difference, especially for a hitter who is expected to cash in with runners on base regularly.

I want Cags to succeed. Hopefully, he can make these adjustments, especially with runners on base and in scoring position.

That said, Cags has to SHOW that he can produce in these run-generating situations. So far, he hasn't, which explains why Quatraro has batted him lower in the order so far this season. 

The former 2024 1st-round pick is in control of his own destiny, especially as Quatraro gives him more opportunities in the lineup, against both lefty and righty starting pitchers.