The Royals' 2027 Roster Problem

According to  MLB.com , the Royals have the 19th-ranked farm system in MLB. While there is plenty of young talent in the system, most of the top-end talent is many years away from contributing at the major-league level. Of the top 11 prospects listed in the Royals Keep prospect rankings, only one of those players has progressed further than High-A Quad Cities. With very few of these prospects expected to make a push for the major-league roster in 2027, how should the Royals’ current mix of prospects impact their off-season strategy?

In recent seasons, the Royals have been able to account for a top prospect to help plug a hole in the lineup. This season, Carter Jensen was the Opening Day starter at designated hitter and eventually became the everyday catcher by midseason. In 2022, Bobby Witt Jr. was the Opening Day third baseman before becoming the everyday shortstop later that year. As of now, no player appears ready to make the jump to becoming an everyday contributor.

This raises a question about when the Royals’ “window” to compete is. J.J. Picollo and the Royals front office certainly think the Royals need to lean more towards win-now rather than rebuild since they decided not to trade away Wacha and Lugo. This was seen as a potential missed opportunity for the Royals to retool in a down season. However, without any top prospects waiting for their chance to be called up, losing both veteran pitchers would have left the Royals rotation very thin and potentially without a new wave of pitching talent ready to replace them. Season-ending injuries from Cole Ragans, Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila, and Ryan Bergert already forced the Royals to call upon Daniel Lynch IV to move from the bullpen to the rotation to finish the season. These pitchers are also set to rejoin after their individual rehab schedules and return timelines. However, it would be reckless for the Royals to enter 2027 assuming that the returns of these pitchers will be enough to stabilize a rotation for a team that intends to compete for the postseason.

Witt and Maikel Garcia are secured through at least 2030 via pre-arbitration extensions. Other key lineup fixtures, Jensen and Jac Caglianone, remain under team control through 2031. With the core of this lineup intact for at least the next four seasons, the Royals have a relatively clear window in which to build a competitive team. With many of their top prospects set to arrive in the majors closer to 2029, it may have made sense to retool and position themselves to make a push in a couple of years. 

MLB.com currently projects these top 10 prospects to reach the majors on the following timeline.

These timelines are by no means set in stone, but the fact that so many of these top prospects are likely multiple years away from arriving shows that there will not likely be a roster boost from the farm system next season. There is also a big difference between a player arriving in the majors and being able to be an impact player. If the Royals do intend to compete as they are currently signaling, there is suddenly a lot of pressure on the front office to get free-agent signings and trades right to improve this team from (currently) last place in the division to playoff contention.

One notable exception from this list is Roccaforte, who is currently in triple-A and is projected to make the MLB roster at some point in 2027. He was recently called up from double-A Northwest Arkansas on August 18. In 91 plate appearances since joining Omaha, he is slashing .286/.371/.558 with five home runs. While his strong start to triple-A has been noticed since his promotion, there is still a lot to improve on; his 32.5% strikeout rate, for example. One highly ranked prospect reaching triple-A doesn't suddenly change the Royals’ 2027 outlook. The Royals still lack a cohort of prospects that are able to fill or compete for multiple holes on the roster.

Lugo and Wacha are both set to hit free agency after next season, pending decisions on their respective conditional club option and club option for 2028. This certainly puts extra pressure on the performance of next season. If 2027 turns out as this season has, the Royals will need to search for more solutions in the rotation with nothing to show for it other than possible regret that they were unable to get a decent return for either pitcher in a trade. 

The Royals’ decisions at the 2026 trade deadline indicate the team intends to make a push in 2027. Now it is up to Picollo to back up that decision with moves in the offseason to dramatically improve this roster. With the current set of prospects at least two years away, it will be sensible to build with 2028 and beyond in mind to become a more sustainable contender for when the top prospects begin to arrive. That is not an easy undertaking at all, especially for a small-market team that often has a payroll in the bottom half of the majors.

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