Should Daniel Lynch IV Stay in the Royals Rotation Beyond This Season?

Daniel Lynch IV has been one of the Royals' more interesting pitching stories in 2026.

In 2024, after a few spot starts in the rotation, the Royals moved the former Competitive Round draft pick to the bullpen, and the results were pretty stellar. In 16 appearances and 43.1 IP, Lynch posted a 3.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a 14.4% K-BB%. All three marks were career bests for Lynch at the time, and it seemed like he would be a mainstay in the Royals bullpen for years. 

Last year, Lynch posted a 3.06 ERA, better than his 2024 mark. However, he regressed in many key categories. His WHIP rose to 1.36, his K-BB% fell to 6.6%, and his 4.76 FIP was 35 points higher than in 2024. While Lynch was a dependable reliever last year, pitching 67.2 innings, he didn't quite seem like a "lights-out" bullpen arm. 

This season, the former Virginia product has been forced into a hybrid role due to numerous pitching injuries.

He made 54 appearances with eight starts and has totaled 76.2 IP, as of Monday, September 21st. In that sample, he sports a solid 3.21 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a FIP of 3.78, which would be a career-best in the latter category if the season ended today.

That said, manager Matt Quatraro has leaned on Lynch in the rotation for over a month now, and the results have been interesting, to say the least. While Lynch has seemed to get better with each and every start with the Royals, fans are wondering if Lynch would be better served in the bullpen, especially considering that unit's overall struggles this season.

So let's look at what Lynch has done this season as both a reliever and a starter, where he's pitched better, and what Kansas City should do with the 29-year-old lefty this offseason as they prepare for 2027.

Lynch's Starter Numbers Pale in Comparison to His Reliever Metrics

The Royals were in a bind when Lynch joined the rotation. Not only had they lost Cole Ragans to an elbow injury and surgery, but they also traded away Kris Bubic to the Dodgers. That said, Bubic wasn't contributing much to the rotation anyway, since he hadn't pitched for the Royals since late May (he finally returned to the mound with the Dodgers last week). Add season-ending surgeries for Luinder Avila and Stephen Koelk, and the Royals had no choice but to promote Lynch to the rotation.

Here's what the numbers look like for Lynch in reliever and starter splits this season. 

Lynch has pitched 15.1 more innings in the bullpen than in the rotation this year. That said, the numbers are vastly more favorable for Lynch as a reliever than a starter. 

As a reliever, Lynch was one of Kansas City's more dependable relievers. In 46 IP, he posted a 19.1% K%, 12.6% K-BB%, a 4.0% HR/FB%, and a 0.93 WHIP.

Lynch's numbers didn't carry over to the rotation, starting in early August. In 30.2 IP, he posted a 13.2% K%, 4.7% K-BB%, 10.3% HR/FB%, 1.27 WHIP, and 4.86 FIP. Lynch didn't quite have closer-level stuff or chops, but he certainly found his niche as a reliever who could slide into tough leverage spots in later innings. 

His Statcast percentiles as a reliever showed he had a knack for limiting hard contact and inducing plenty of ground balls. That made up for the lack of swing-and-miss ability. 

Even though the TJ Stuff+ ranked in the 30th percentile with a 99 mark, he also ranked in the 80th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 75th percentile in hard-hit rate, 67th percentile in CSW%, 86th percentile in GB%, and 75th percentile in SwStr%. Those are the kind of percentile rankings fans want to see from a reliever in the late innings, regardless of their role.

Now, let's take a look at what his Statcast percentiles have looked like this season in his eight starts with the Royals. 

Since moving to the rotation, the TJ Stuff+ has remained the same (30th percentile), but everything else has declined. The barrel rate (63rd percentile), GB% (62nd percentile), and Hard-Hit% (55th percentile) have regressed modestly, as expected with a heavier workload. However, his SwStr% (13th percentile) and CSW% (21st percentile) have dipped dramatically, which explains the spikes in ERA and FIP and the declines in wOBA and xwOBA. 

This season, Lynch thrived in the bullpen as a 7th-8th inning specialist. As a starter? He's pretty much been a fringe No. 5 type, fine for a team 22 games under .500, but not exactly encouraging for a rotation with playoff aspirations. 

The Four-Seamer Has Been an Issue as a Starter

Looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary metrics this year, his bullpen numbers look much more favorable, and you have to wonder what his year in the bullpen could've looked like if Kansas City hadn't been so plagued by starting-pitcher injuries. 

As a reliever, Lynch had three pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher (sinker, slider, and four-seamer). As a starter? He only has one (slider). His sinker dropped four points (96), and his changeup dropped one (97). However, his four-seamer saw the biggest TJ Stuff+ regression, dropping from 101 to 93 as he moved from the bullpen to the rotation. A 1.9-inch decline in iVB on the four-seamer seems to be the main culprit. 

The command on the four-seamer hasn't been great either as a starter. The lackluster command has led to fewer strikes and chases, as well as similarly poor marks in whiff rate and xwOBA. 

Here's what his four-seamer looked like as a reliever this season, via TJ Stats Heatmap data. 

Lynch lived on the inside edge with the four-seamer against lefties and down and in the middle against right-handed pitchers. The approach worked: he had CSW marks over 28% and xwOBACON marks under .260. Those two factors can lead to a lot of success, especially for relievers put into tough spots with runners on base. 

Now, here's how his four-seamer looks in the move to the rotation.

It's been mostly fine against lefties with a 30% CSW and .302 xwOBACON, which is up but not egregiously so. Against righties, the CSW is fine at 28.3%, but he's giving up a .414 xwOBACON, which is 158 points higher than his xwOBACON mark as a reliever. His more up-and-middle four-seamer against righties may be contributing to this regression. 

Here's an example of his four-seamer recently against Jonah Heim and the Athletics. Heim doesn't swing, but Lynch threw a meaty pitch to start the at-bat. 

Lynch throws this 93 MPH right down the middle without much vertical movement. A more aggressive hitter could've launched that for a home run, which would've made it a 3-0 game in favor of the Athletics. 

Let's take a look at his four-seamer from earlier in the year, specifically against Yoan Moncada and the Angels on April 24th at Kauffman Stadium. 

Not only is the Lynch four-seamer clocking in at 96 MPH, but it also has great vertical movement that tails away from righties. Moncada recognizes it too late and ends up swinging and missing to end the inning for the Royals. 

The Royals need Lynch back to that form on the four-seamer in 2027, whether in the rotation or the bullpen, if they want to maximize his value and production. 

Final Thoughts on Lynch

Over his career, Lynch has clearly been a better reliever than starter. FanGraphs shows this in his career SP/RP splits, which stem back to his rookie debut in 2021. 

His career SP/RP splits are a mirror of his 2026 stats. Not only does he give up more homers and walk more batters as a starter, but his career starter FIP of 4.88 is 98 points higher than his career reliever FIP. 

The Royals need to upgrade their pitching this offseason. They cannot depend on Ragans to produce another healthy 2024 campaign. Michael Wacha has been great, but at his age, it's just a matter of time before he hits the wall. Lastly, Seth Lugo has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, if not THE worst, at least based on fWAR. 

Thus, the Royals need to thank Lynch for stepping up in this trying time. However, Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picool needs to move Lynch back to the bullpen this offseason and try to find starting pitcher solutions via trade or free agency to help boost this rotation and get them back to where they were in 2024, when they had two starters finish in the Top 5 in AL Cy Young voting (Lugo and Ragans). 

The Royals need to approach this offseason like 2012, when they acquired James Shields to bolster the rotation. That kind of move would be welcome in Kansas City and kill two birds with one stone. An "ace" in Kansas City guarantees Lynch a bullpen spot by Spring Training in 2027, but that's not a bad thing, given his strong track record as a reliever. 

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