Royals Trade Machine: Jarren Duran, Red Sox

We're still a few weeks away from the Winter Meetings, but that hasn't stopped the offseason buzz regarding possible trades, especially with the Kansas City Royals.

One player that has been the focus of trade talks among Royals fans is outfielder Jarren Duran of the Red Sox.

The Royals need to improve their outfield, which ranked 30th in fWAR and wRC+, according to Fangraphs. Duran could be an option for Kansas City, especially since he has two years of club control left and doesn't seem in line to receive an extension from the Red Sox anytime soon, due to the presence of other young outfielders like Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu.

Last season, Duran posted a 111 wRC+ and 3.9 fWAR in 696 plate appearances with the Red Sox. He also hit 16 home runs, collected 84 RBI, scored 86 runs, and stole 24 bases. The BB/K ratio (0.36) leaves a bit to be desired, and he regressed defensively (-2 OAA in OF) after a stellar campaign in 2024 (+10 OAA). Still, Duran would be a significant upgrade for the Royals at any of the three outfield positions next season, and his Statcast profile last year was a lot better than what Kansas City trotted out primarily in the corner outfield positions.

A popular tool for determining "fair" trades is Baseball Trade Values' Trade Simulator.  As with any simulator, there are kinks to be worked out (and BTV does a good job of consistently updating it). That said, it does provide a benchmark for what a player costs in terms of value (both short- and long-term) and the capital required to acquire them.

In this "Royals Trade Machine" post, I am going to look at a couple of hypothetical trades floating around on social media and offer one trade that I think could work not just for the Royals but for the Red Sox as well.

Trade #1: First Baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and Catcher Ramon Ramirez for Duran

Sammy from the Play Tessie podcast posted this trade proposal on social media on November 6th.

Pasquantino is coming off one of his best seasons in his career on the offensive end. In 682 plate appearances, he hit 32 home runs and collected 113 RBI, both career-highs. He also posted a 116 wRC+, his highest mark in that category since his 72-game rookie sample in 2022 (136 wRC+). However, while those surface-level metrics are nice, Pasquantino didn't offer much on defense (-7 OAA) and only accumulated 1.5 fWAR. 

As for Ramirez, injury limited him to 331 plate appearances in his first full professional season with Columbia. Still, he hit 12 home runs and posted a 116 wRC+. The 20-year-old catcher also had some big moments in Low-A Columbia, including a walk-off homer in May.

When looking at the trade via BTV, their model rejected this proposal due to a significant gap in value between the two teams.

A gap of nearly 30 in value is a lot to overcome, which is why this deal probably doesn't get done. Even though this deal is friendly to the Royals in terms of BTV's surplus value, it also seems unlikely that Kansas City would trade a fan favorite like Vinnie, especially after the season he just had. 

Trade #2: Staring Pitcher Noah Cameron, Catcher Blake Mitchell, and Reliever Angel Zerpa for Duran

Max Rieper of Royals Review brought up this trade proposal in a November 12th piece on the site, which also delved deeper into Duran's profile and history.

Max did the hard work of ensuring this trade worked for both sides in the BTV Trade Simulator. 

The Royals get the better value still in this trade, but it's only a 2.80 difference rather than the 28.80 difference from the Play Tessi proposal. In many ways, I like this deal for a few different reasons:

Kansas City holds onto Kris Bubic, who I think is more valuable than Noah Cameron. While Cameron had a good year, Bubic's ceiling is much higher than Cameron's, which is evident in Bubic's TJ Stats summary from a season ago.

That said, trading Cameron away puts some pressure on the Royals to sign Bubic to an extension. I am not sure the Royals are willing to do that, based on what GM JJ Picollo said in the GM meetings. 

Losing Blake Mitchell is a tough pill to swallow, especially after a solid AFL campaign, which can be seen in his TJ Stats profile from Arizona below.

However, with the emergence of Carter Jensen last year, two more years of Salvador Perez, and Ramirez showing promise in Low-A ball, Mitchell is the most expendable of their top prospects. Plus, Mitchell's "swing and miss" issues are worrisome, and that was evident in Arizona with a 38.2% whiff rate with Surprise.

Angel Zerpa is fine, but he's not a high-leverage lefty, as his 4.18 ERA and 0.3 fWAR demonstrated a season ago.

The main drawback of this deal is that the Royals are giving up three players for one player, which seems like a lot for Duran, who is a free agent after the 2027 season.

Trade #3: Starting Pitcher Kris Bubic, Reliever James McArthur, and Utility Player Nick Loftin for Duran and Pitcher Jordan Hicks

My trade proposal involves the Royals not just acquiring Duran, but also a bad deal on the books for the Red Sox that could soften the deal.

While I prefer the Royals to keep Bubic, the reality is that he's their best trade chip, especially with Boston. I don't think the Red Sox, an analytical organization, would be sold on Cameron based on his TJ Stats summary. 

A subpar four-seamer and a slightly below average TJ Stuff+ mark of 98 pales in comparison to Bubic's TJ Stuff+ numbers. Thus, for the Royals to get a player of Duran's caliber, Bubic makes more sense in a trade scenario.

I also threw in Nick Loftin, who gives the Red Sox a utility option off the bench. The Red Sox have had success with Nate Eaton, another former Royals utility player and draft pick. They may be able to utilize Loftin in a similar role, and Loftin has more of a prospect pedigree than Eaton, who's been a bit up and down at the MLB level. Loftin posted a 0.1 fWAR and 73 wRC+ in 188 plate appearances last year.

The last part of this deal involves trading a talented but slightly erratic arm, James McArthur, for a similar pitcher with a bigger contract, Jordan Hicks. McArthur missed all of 2025 due to recovery from surgery, and he had troubles holding down the closer position in 2024. However, while his 4.77 ERA wasn't impressive, he still posted pretty solid TJ Stuff+ numbers with the Royals a couple of seasons ago. He could be a nice project for the Red Sox, who should come at a pretty reasonable price (expected to make $800,000 this year). 

As for the Red Sox, they would deal Hicks, who posted a 6.35 ERA and is making $12.5 million over the next two years. That's a lot to sink on a likely reliever, though the Red Sox were hoping they could get something out of him in the rotation when they acquired him. I think the Royals could take on Hicks' money to sweeten this deal, and Hicks could also be a nice project for pitching coach Brian Sweeney.

Based on all these factors, here's how this trade calculates out on the BTV Trade Simulator.

The deal not only favors the Red Sox value-wise, but it's nearly identical in terms of value given up by both teams, according to the BTV Trade Simulator. 

Of course, would the Red Sox give up Hicks as well in the deal? Would McArthur and Loftin be the types Boston would like in return, along with Bubic?

Those are all questions that would need to be clarified for this deal to be a reality. However, if they are explained, I think this would be the best win-win for both the Royals and Red Sox in 2026 and beyond. 

Which trade do you like the most? Let us know in the comments below or on the Royals Keep Forums!