Nick Loftin Needs to Show That He Belongs Long Term

With the offseason near its completion (pitchers and catchers report in 15 days), the Royals' roster may be on its way to being finalized. While a minor move still may be on the horizon, the lofty hopes that Kansas City would acquire someone like the Red Sox's Jarren Duran or the Cardinals' Brendan Donovan may seemingly be shot. 

Regardless, the Royals have improved this offseason. Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas are much-needed additions who will help the Kansas City outfield on both the offensive and defensive ends. Matt Strahm, Nick Mears, and Alex Lange should give the bullpen more velocity, depth, and swing-and-miss ability. Lastly, the Royals should also see some internal improvement from players like Jac Caglianone and Jonathan India, who both struggled in their Kansas City debuts a season ago. 

One player worth watching in Spring Training and in 2026 is Nick Loftin.

Selected 32nd overall in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Baylor, Loftin has shown flashes of promise at the MLB level, but hasn't put it all together to stick. In 427 career plate appearances, the 27-year-old utility player has a career .275 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and 0.2 fWAR. His main strength as a player is his plate discipline, as he has a career 14.8% K% and 0.59 BB/K ratio. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to show much else with the Royals since debuting in 2023, which explains why he is on shaky ground for the Royals when it comes to his Opening Day roster spot. 

Loftin still has a Minor League option remaining, so he has roster flexibility for the upcoming season. That said, the former Bear has nothing to prove in Triple-A. He needs to show he can produce at the plate and in the field if he wants to be not just a key part of this 2026 roster, but also beyond. 

Will that happen this season for Loftin? Let's look at what he did last year, what needs to improve, and what Royals fans should be looking for with him in Spring Training in Arizona. 

Mashing the International League (But not so much in the Majors)

Last season with the Storm Chasers, Loftin did all he could to show that he belonged at the Major League level.

In 43 games and 197 plate appearances, he posted a .415 wOBA and 145 wRC+. He also hit four home runs, scored 30 runs, collected 24 RBI, and stole 12 bases. Lastly, Loftin also had a 1.63 BB/K ratio and 16.4% O-Swing%. When looking at his TJ Stats metrics, he may have been the Storm Chasers' best overall hitter in 2025. 

There's a lot to like with Loftin's profile above. He ranked in the 90th percentile in above in O-Swing%, Whiff%, Z-Contact%, K%, and BB%. He also ranked in the 95th percentile in wOBA and 97th percentile in xwOBA. The latter demonstrates that his performance was legitimate and not just a product of "batted ball luck". Lastly, he launched the ball well with Omaha (79th percentile) and pulled the ball in the air effectively (89th percentile). Those kinds of batted-ball skills, combined with his plate discipline, are exactly what the Royals are looking for in hitters, especially under new assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames. 

Unfortunately, things haven't clicked in Kansas City for Loftin yet, as they did in Omaha last season. In 67 games and 188 plate appearances with the Royals last year, Loftin posted a .279 wOBA, 73 wRC+, and 0.1 fWAR. He also hit four home runs, scored 17 runs, and collected 20 RBI.

As expected with Loftin, the BB/K ratio was solid at 0.59. However, like in 2024 and 2023, he struggled to show much in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories last year. That is clear in his TJ Stats summary below.

With the Royals last year, his average EV ranked in the 23rd percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 30th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 15th percentile. As a result, despite solid plate discipline metrics, his wOBA still ranked in the 6th percentile, and xwOBA ranked in the 15th percentile.

Those lackluster metrics explain why the Royals acquired Adam Frazier at the All-Star Break to serve in the utility role previously held by Loftin from May until early July. 

Some Signs of Encouragement from Loftin's Metrics

Loftin got off to a hot start when he was called up, posting an .857 OPS in 14 plate appearances in May. That also included a game-winning hit at Kauffman Stadium against the Mets, where he drove in the winning run off of Mets pitcher (and former Royals draft pick) Sean Manaea. 

Unfortunately, things really nosedived for Loftin over the remainder of the season. From June to September, he posted the following OPS marks by month:

• June: .514 OPS (53 PA)
• July: .695 OPS (51 PA)
• August: .570 OPS (50 PA)
• September: .750 OPS (20 PA)

He started showing signs of life in September. Unfortunately, by that time, it was too late, as Frazier had established himself as the Royals' primary utility man. Interestingly enough, Loftin's surge in September was no fluke, as his xwOBA rolling chart showed his best xwOBA came down the stretch.

Interestingly enough, even though Loftin had a good start, his xwOBA at the start of the year didn't reflect that. His xwOBA was between the .220 and .240 range, which matched one of the worst marks of his career (which was back in 2023). That said, Loftin demonstrated solid progression in xwOBA trends, culminating with him being above the league-average by his 400th career plate appearance. 

Loftin showed more consistency in 2024 in xwOBA, though his metrics were even worse that year. In 57 games and 171 plate appearances, he posted a .242 wOBA, 51 wRC+, and -0.2 fWAR. Conversely, his BABIP was only .216, which explains why his actual numbers were so different from his xwOBA. The same story was true for Loftin last year, as he had a .223 BABIP. 

It will be interesting to see if the new Kauffman Stadium dimensions could result in more hits for Loftin, who hasn't gotten the most batted-ball luck in his career (.248 career BABIP). Below is his spray chart from last year, modified to Target Field, which should mirror the new dimensions at the K in 2026.

With the new dimensions, Loftin would have had five home runs in 2025. Furthermore, it's possible that many of his field outs could've been hits as well, especially those at the warning track.

Thus, that could be why the Royals are balking at bringing back Frazier or at looking for another utility type in free agency, like Austin Slater, Miguel Andujar, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Kauffman's new dimensions could help Loftin be more productive at home (though his 96 career wRC+ at home is 53 points better than his career wRC+ on the road, according to Fangraphs splits). 

What Does Loftin Need to Do in 2026?

A positive about Loftin's profile is that he's been solid defensively, though he's not spectacular at one given spot. Last year, he produced a positive OAA (outs above average) value at every position except left field, which can be seen in the table below via Savant.

When looking at detailed data on where Loftin was successful, it seemed like he was better on plays straight up, especially in the infield. In the outfield, it seemed like his range wasn't as great, especially toward the gap.

The reality is that Loftin won't win a Gold Glove anytime soon. Furthermore, the infield seems set with Maikel Garcia at third base, Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop, and Jonathan India and Michael Massey at second base. For Loftin to earn more playing time, improving his play in the outfield, especially left field, may be essential. 

In addition to improving outfield defense, Loftin needs to start hitting the ball with more authority. That doesn't have to mean more home runs, necessarily. Rather, seeing a trend upward in his hard-hit rate in 2026 would be a step in the right direction. At six-feet, 180 pounds, he has the ability to generate more hard hits, and his rolling chart last year showed that he made progress in this area.

For the first time in his career, Loftin had a hard-hit rate above the league average (which was around the 230th-250th batted-ball mark). While he was slightly below average for the remainder of the year, he was between the 30% and 40% range, which was better than what he had been doing earlier in the year and in 2023 and 2024 as well.

That said, generating a higher hard-hit rate can be easier said than done, especially in Loftin's case. The key to that happening depends on his ideal attack angle and his bat speed. Improving those two things can lead to more hard hits, more barrels, and, thus, more offensive production.

Regarding the ideal attack angle, he showed encouraging progress last year. His attack angle rolling chart showed multiple instances when it was above the league average. In 2024, he only had one small stretch where it hovered above that league-average line, according to Savant.

Conversely, his bat speed has lagged over the course of his career. His 69.4 MPH average bat speed ranked 19th of 23 Royals hitters last year with 10 or more plate appearances. Furthermore, his 6.6% fast-swing rate ranked 18th among Savant's rankings. When looking at his rolling chart for bat speed, the trend has been pretty consistent throughout his career, suggesting his bat speed may remain what it is going forward.

Thus, Loftin's hard-hit rate may remain inconsistent unless he continues to show improvement in his attack angle at the Major League level. Nonetheless, the key to Loftin sticking in the Majors will hinge on his ability to get on base and his ability to play multiple positions defensively. Plate discipline and positional flexibility are two areas that manager Matt Quatraro seems to value highly.

Loftin could be the fit off the bench the Royals need to improve upon their 2025 82-80 record. However, he needs to show progress immediately in 2026, especially if he comes out of camp on the Major League roster. 

There's nothing left Loftin needs to do in Omaha. He needs to show better and more consistent results in the Majors. 

Let's see if he can see that progress in hard-hit, barrel ability, and launch angle in the Majors in 2026 as he did in Triple-A last year. If he does, the former 2020 pick could be a long-term mainstay on the Royals roster.