How Can Seth Lugo Get Back to Form in 2026?

When the Royals acquired Seth Lugo in free agency prior to the 2024 season, it seemed like they struck big with the veteran righty who had only gotten back to starting in 2023 with the San Diego Padres. 

In 33 starts and 206.2 IP, Lugo posted a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.25 FIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio, and 4.7 fWAR. Those numbers not only earned him the Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year award (which goes to Kansas City's best pitcher in a season), but they also helped him finish second in the AL Cy Young race (he was runner-up to Detroit's Tarik Skubal). 

Even though he was on the older end, the former 2011 Mets draft pick showed that he could be a top-of-the-rotation arm in his first season in Kansas City. Thus, there were high hopes that Lugo could have another strong campaign in 2025 and help the Royals return to the postseason. 

Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned for Lugo last season.

In his second season, Lugo was dogged by injuries and inconsistency on the mound. He landed on the IL twice, with his first stint in May due to a right finger spin and his second due to a lower back strain. As a result, he made six fewer starts and only pitched 145.1 innings, 61.1 fewer than a year ago. 

While injury affected his inning total in 2025, he was also less effective in his starts, which also contributed to fewer innings on the mound. Lugo posted a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.09 FIP, 2.27 K/BB ratio, and 0.5 fWAR last season, all significant declines from the numbers he produced in his Royals debut in 2024. When looking deeper into his metrics, especially from a TJ Stats summary comparison, he also saw regression in his stuff (as measured by TJ Stuff+), chase rate, whiff rate, and xwOBACON.

It's one thing to show a decline in one or two of those areas from one year to the next, as regression is always to be expected from a pitcher who outperformed expectations one season. That said, it's one thing to miss bats, not get chases, or give up hard hits. To allow all three things, however? That's a bit tougher to stomach, especially for a pitcher slotted at the top of the rotation.

Interestingly enough, despite trade rumors throughout the season, the Royals opted to give Lugo an extension right before the Trade Deadline. Lugo's two-year, $46 million extension will keep him through 2027.

The extension was a controversial choice for the Royals, especially with his age and his lackluster 2025 campaign. At the same time, the new contract may take a weight off of Lugo and allow him to come to Spring Training in Arizona fully focused on pitching and not on acquiring a "new" deal. 

Thus, what does Lugo need to do so he can be closer to the pitcher he was in 2024 rather than the one last season? Let's take a look at three things that could be worth paying attention to from Lugo, especially at the beginning of the upcoming year. 

Generating More Chase

Lugo found more of the strike zone in 2025. His zone rate rose from 50.4% in 2024 to 51.2% a season ago. However, it seemed like throwing more strikes was a bit counterintuitive, as he generated much less chase. After posting a 27.9% chase rate in 2024, which was around league average, it fell to 23.8% last year, which was rated as below average. That seemed to affect his whiff rate (20.7%) and xwOBACON (.427), both of which were below average.

Below is a look at his TJ Stats summary from a season ago, and it's interesting to see how all of his 10 offerings fared, especially in terms of chase.

Of his 10 pitches, only two sported above-average chase rates: his curveball (32.6%) and his slow curve (24.1%). Interestingly, his slow curve had the best pitching grade at 74, and his curveball ranked second at 64. Thus, it makes sense that those pitches forced hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone, as they were of high quality. 

That is further demonstrated in the pitch clip compilation of the curve and slow curve below, which are from outings against the Twins and Yankees, respectively. 

Unfortunately, while the curve and slow curve were effective chase-inducing offerings, he failed to do much with the other eight pitches.

His slurve had a grade of 53, which is above-average. That said, it generated below-average chase with a 25.7% mark. His other breaking offerings, his sweeper and slider, also sported below-average chase marks with rates of 22.6% and 19.2%, respectively. In terms of offspeed pitches, his splitter and changeup were better, with chase rates of 27.3% and 26.1%. Still, they were below the league average in chase rate, and his changeup chase rate was 3.7% worse than in 2024. 

As for fastball pitches (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), none of them had a chase rate above 23.4% (which was his cutter). Then again, his sinker and four-seamer had grades of 43 and 42, respectively, and his cutter had a 45 grade. Thus, they aren't exactly high-octane offerings, which makes them less prone to generating swings outside of the strike zone. 

For Lugo to generate more overall chase in 2026, he'll need to be more effective with his breaking and offspeed offerings. The dips in chase in those offerings seemed to have a broader effect on other important strike and batted-ball categories in 2025, as seen in the table below via Savant.

By making adjustments to his breaking and offspeed pitches, he'll see positive effects in other areas like xwOBA, whiff rate, and put-away rate. It's likely the fastball metrics will remain stable, as they did from 2024 to 2025 (and it'll always be tough for him to generate high chase rates due to their lackluster velocity). However, he can't be mediocre again with his breaking and offspeed pitches, and focusing on improving his chase of those pitch types will be the key to turning things around. 

Limiting the Long Ball

In addition to generating more chase in 2024, Lugo also did a better job of limiting home runs. 

Two seasons ago, he allowed a 0.70 HR/9 and 7.4% HR/FB rate, both stellar marks. Unfortunately, those marks rose to 1.67 and 15.4% in 2025. 

When trying to understand why those numbers spiked so much, it's important to look at the pitch types he gave home runs on a year ago, where they were thrown in the zone, and where in the ballpark they were hit. 

So let's look at the pitch type zone chart on home runs given up by Lugo in 2025.

Hitters launched home runs off Lugo on breaking balls and offspeed pitches that were hung, and four-seamers and sinkers that didn't get vertical enough. Notice the number of waist-level pitches in that zone chart. Those are balls that will be easily launched out of any ballpark. That is further illustrated in the clip compilation below, which shows home runs from Detroit's Andy Ibanez and Pittsburgh's Oneil Cruz on waist-level mistakes from Lugo.

Now, let's look at Lugo's home run spray chart from 2025 to get a sense of where home runs off Lugo were hit a season ago.

21 of Lugo's 27 home runs allowed were by left-handed hitters. Those struggles against lefties were evident in the spray chart above, as many of Lugo's home runs allowed were over the right- and right-center-field walls. That showed that lefties were teeing off on Lugo's mistakes, a sign that he was either tipping against lefties or they were able to pick him up better due to a slight change in mechanics. Lugo had a slightly higher arm angle in 2024 (33 degrees) than in 2025 (32 degrees), but it will be interesting to see if there was something else that was the cause of Lugo's homer struggles against lefties.

To compare, let's take a look at Lugo's home run spray chart from 2024, via Savant.

Notice in the spray chart above that the number of home runs to right and right-center-field were far fewer. The splits data confirm that Lugo gave up only seven home runs to lefties in 2024, compared to nine to righties. Even then, home runs that were allowed to righties weren't heavily pulled, as most of the home runs allowed by Lugo two seasons ago were in the gaps. That means that while hitters were crushing those balls, they weren't timing Lugo as effectively (pulled balls signal effective timing).

Here is a look at the pitch type zone chart of Lugo's home runs in 2024.

Most of the home runs Lugo allowed in 2024 were on sliders and sweepers, as six of his home runs allowed were on those two pitches. He also only gave up one home run on a changeup and only two on the curveball. To compare, he gave up four home runs on changeups in 2025 and three on curveballs. 

For Lugo to improve his overall line in 2026, he will need to be more effective at limiting the long ball, especially against lefties. Additionally, hanging his curve and changeup less will also be essential. If he doesn't, he could be due for a season closer to 2025 than 2024, not a good sign for a pitcher making $23 million per year. 

Inducing More Groundballs

A key to Lugo's career has been his ability to generate a high percentage of groundballs. He has a career groundball rate (GB%) of 43.5%, and in his first season with the Royals, he had a 44.2% GB%. Furthermore, his GB% was 45.2% in 2023 with the Padres and 45.6% in 2022 with the Mets. That ability to generate a solid number of groundballs is essential to keep the ball in the yard and allow his plus middle-infield defense behind him to make plays and outs. 

However, Lugo took a step back in this area in 2025. His GB% dipped to 39%, a career low. He also gave up a barrel rate of 11.1% and a hard-hit rate of 45.2%, both career-highs. So not only was Lugo not keeping the ball on the ground, but he was also giving up a lot of hard, productive contact. 

When looking at his rolling chart of the launch angle of batted balls allowed by Lugo in 2024, he did a good job of producing below-average launch angle rates for most of the season (especially in the middle of the year). There were spikes of high launch angles allowed on batted balls, but they never persisted for too long, as seen below. 

Now, let's take a look at the same chart type from this past season.

In 2025, Lugo's rolling launch angle chart was the inverse of the 2024 chart. He spent most of the year giving up high launch-angle batted balls and spent less time in that below-average zone (which is where pitchers want to be). This isn't surprising, of course, considering the high barrel and hard-hit rates allowed from 2025. 

Again, launch angle allowed can be tied to pitch command, and it was obvious that Lugo's command wasn't nearly as sharp in 2025 as it was in 2024. As his issues with chase and home runs allowed Lugo to see more groundballs in 2026, changes in his pitch quality may be needed. He throws a diverse number of pitches, which makes him hard to scout from a hitter's perspective. That said, the focus for Lugo may be on throwing BETTER pitches rather than MORE (which was his strategy last year). 

The key to inducing more groundballs may lie in the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches, especially when thrown low in the zone. In the wOBA zone chart below from 2024, Royals fans can see how effective Lugo was with his changeup and splitter offerings. 

In the lower zones, the highest wOBA Lugo gave up, beyond the .428 mark in the lower glove-side waste zone, was .220. That shows that hitters struggled to hone in on offspeed pitches when Lugo commanded them effectively (which is low in the zone).

Now, let's take a look at that zone wOBA chart from last year, via Savant.

The big difference is the lower armside area of the strike zone (zone 7 technically). After giving up a .224 wOBA in that zone in 2024, it rose to .394 in 2025. He was also hit much harder with offspeed pitches thrown in zone 4 (armside middle zone), as he went from a .194 wOBA in 2024 to a .631 mark in 2025. 

For Lugo to get back to his groundball-inducing ways again in 2026, he will need to focus on commanding his changeup and splitter better. Additionally, improving the offspeed quality and spin (1,650 RPM on offspeed pitches in 2025 compared to 1,730 RPM in 2024) that made him so effective at limiting productive contact would also be a step in the right direction toward a bounce-back for him in year three in Kansas City.