Have Injuries Really Affected the Kansas City Royals in 2026?

On August 18th, Dan Szymborski, the creator of ZiPS, penned an article on Fangraphs about which teams have been affected the most by injuries and IL stints this season. Lucas Shaefer broke down the piece and the data Szymborski presents on Diamondcentric today.

Now, it's easy to say that injuries have affected the Royals and their performance in 2026. After being predicted to win between 82 and 86 games, the Royals are currently 55-74 and are now predicted to win 70 games this year, according to Fangraphs. While regression in performance from key players has had the biggest impact, prolonged IL stints with many players, especially on the pitching end, have limited Kansas City's ceiling this season. 

So what have been the key injuries this year for the Royals, and how have they led to Kansas City underperforming in 2026? Furthermore, what does the data say about the Royals' injury woes, and how does it compare to the rest of the league?

Let's break down those two questions and what it could mean for 2027. 

Pitching Has Been Hit the Hardest By Injury

The Royals have had particularly brutal injuries on both the hitting and pitching sides this season. However, pitching seems to have taken the biggest hit.

Three particular injuries were major blows to the pitching staff: Opening Day starter Cole Ragans, former All-Star Kris Bubic, and All-Star closer Carlos Estevez.

Ragans was predicted to be the Royals' best overall pitcher in 2026, based on ZiPS projections. ZiPS' 50th percentile projected Ragans to pitch 118 innings and produce a 3.10 FIP and 2.2 fWAR. Unfortunately, due to an elbow injury that eventually led to surgery, he was limited to only 35.1 IP. In that sample, he produced a 4.84 ERA, 6.17 FIP, and -0.3 fWAR. 

Looking at his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats, Ragan still produced some intriguing stuff and velocity, and generated strikeouts, swings, and misses. Unfortunately, he struggled in nearly every other category, especially when it came to control and batted-ball profile. 

While Ragans was expected to lead this Royals pitching staff, Bubic was supposed to be the No. 2 arm in the rotation, according to ZiPS projections. In 106 IP, ZiPS projected a 3.48 FIP and 1.9 fWAR for Bubic.

Unlike Ragans, the numbers were at least decent for Bubic, though he only made nine starts and pitched 50.1 innings.

In that sample, he produced a 4.11 ERA, 3.70 FIP, and 0.8 fWAR. If Bubic had stayed healthy, it's possible that he could've been the Royals' best starting pitcher this year (only Noah Cameron has a better FIP at 3.58), as well as an All-Star. The whiff ability and extension remained strong for Bubic, according to his Statcast percentiles. However, the zone, walk, and hard-hit rates weren't as impressive as seasons past. 

Bubic has been sidelined since June 27th, and his outlook for the remainder of the year is questionable. However, that didn't stop the Dodgers from trading for him in exchange for reliever Carlos Duran (who had a rough one today against the Athletics). 

The last major pitcher to be injured this year was Estevez, who only made one appearance this year and has been on the IL since. ZiPS predictions were modest for Estevez: 3.97 FIP and 0.4 fWAR in 57 IP. For context, Lucas Erceg (0.5 fWAR), Jonathan Bowlan (0.6 fWAR), and Angel Zerpa (0.6 fWAR) were projected to have better seasons than Estevez. 

Still, while regression was expected for the Royals closer, fans didn't expect him to be this affected by injury. In one awful appearance in Atlanta, Estevez produced a 162.00 ERA, 60.09 FIP, and -0.3 fWAR. Estevez's Statcast percentiles were just as bad, even in a tiny sample. 

Maybe Estevez doesn't lead the league in saves again in 2026. However, he would've given the Royals more bullpen stability if he were healthy. The Royals currently rank 29th in reliever ERA and 30th in reliever WHIP. 

Here are some other pitching injuries this year and their preseason ZiPS projections from December. 

• James McArthur: 0.3 fWAR (0 IP)
• Alec Marsh: 0.3 fWAR (0 IP)
• Ryan Bergert: 0.8 fWAR (0 MLB IP)
• Stephen Kolek: 1.3 fWAR (54 IP)
• Nick Mears: 0.3 fWAR (19.1 IP)

The Royals also lost Luinder Avila recently to Tommy John after he produced a 0.3 fWAR in 70 IP. He was projected for a 0.6 fWAR, and he will be out for most, if not all, of 2027 due to recovery from Tommy John surgery. 

Position Player Injuries Have Been Impactful As Well

The Royals haven't had the kind of long-term injuries that have affected their position player group this season. Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., and even Salvador Perez have dealt with lingering injuries and missed time on the IL. However, they haven't had the kind of IL time as the pitching staff. 

The regular player most affected may be Garcia, who suffered a hamstring injury Thursday while rounding third base and will likely be on the IL for an extended period. 

ZiPS projected a 3.0 fWAR for Garcia in 634 PA, the second-best fWAR mark on the team (behind only Witt's 3.7). Unfortunately, he's just produced a 1.5 fWAR in 308 plate appearances. He currently ranks fifth among Royals position players in fWAR, and he may have been in the Top-3 if he had stayed healthy this season. 

Garcia has dealt with a lingering hand injury all season, which initially landed him on the IL on June 23rd. In addition to missed games, the hand injury has also sapped Garcia's power and barrel ability, as illustrated in his 2025 and 2026 Statcast comparison summary via TJ Stats. 

After signing an extension this offseason, the Royals need Garcia to get healthy this offseason and get back to that 2025 form that helped him earn a Gold Glove and an appearance in the All-Star Game. 

Pasquantino has also been affected by injury, as IL stints have limited him to 82 games and 384 plate appearances with the Royals this season. ZiPS predicted a 1.8 fWAR in 613 plate appearances this year. However, in his limited sample, he's generated a .307 wOBA and 0.4 fWAR.

The big Statcast difference for Pasquantino is that his barrel and hard-hit rates have declined from a year ago, which has affected his overall wOBA line. That said, a lot of his other percentiles, especially in relation to contact ability and plate discipline, have either remained the same or gotten slightly better. 

Vinnie has come back and has looked locked in at the plate, which is encouraging to see, even against a poor team like the Athletics. Like Garcia, the Royals need a healthy and effective Pasquantino next year if they want to get back into playoff contention in the American League. 

The only other major injury to a position player was Jonathan India, who was lost to the season due to shoulder surgery after just 58 plate appearances. In that sample, India posted a 0.0 fWAR and .290 wOBA. ZiPS predicted a bounce-back for India after a poor 2025 season (-0.3 fWAR). In 555 plate appearances, ZiPS projected India to post a .314 wOBA and 1.6 fWAR.

Thankfully, India's absence hasn't been felt too much, thanks to the emergence of Michael Massey. The 28-year-old second baseman has a .322 wOBA and 1.8 fWAR, the latter being the third-best fWAR among Royals position players (only Witt and Jac Caglianone have produced higher fWAR marks). 

Where Do the Royals Rank Compared to Other Teams?

When looking at Szymborski's article, the Royals rank closer to the bottom of the league rather than the top when it comes to fWAR lost by injury. 

According to the data on Fangraphs, the Royals rank only 20th in fWAR lost due to injury. 

The Royals have lost 6.0 fWAR due to injury. That's more fWAR lost due to injury than the Reds, Rockies, Marlins, and Rays, but less than the Athletics, Mariners, Twins, and Brewers. According to Szymborski, only the Guardians have remained healthier than the Royals among AL Central teams.

To be honest, the data is a bit surprising since the major narrative this year, especially around the Trade Deadline, is that injuries were the main contributor to this poor season. While injuries have been impactful, the data suggest those claims may be a bit overblown (at least on an fWAR end). 

Does that mean that the Royals shouldn't reload to try to turn things around in 2027? No, they have a good offensive core still, and this past sweep of the A's has demonstrated what the Royals can do when they're healthy and clicking (especially at Kauffman Stadium). 

That said, this team can't just blame injuries for a poor 2026 season. While injuries played a role, the data suggests other factors may have contributed to their disappointing campaign this year. 

This means the Royals' President of Baseball Operations, JJ Picollo, needs to address those issues this offseason, not just lean on the "well, everyone will get healthy" card for 2027. If he opts for the latter, the Royals may be due for another disastrous performance next season.

And if that happens, Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro won't be around for long. 

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