Baily Falter's Tenure With the Royals May Be Coming to an End

On Tuesday, the New York Yankees absolutely thrashed the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. The Yankees not only scored 15 runs, but also collected 24 hits in a 14-run win over the Boys in Blue. Safe to say, it was one of the worst losses of the season, especially at Kauffman Stadium.

The Royals had a bullpen game on Tuesday against the Yankees, and unfortunately, the strategy blew up in Kansas City's face early.

Bailey Falter opened the game for the Royals, and the Yankees got after him early. They scored four runs against him in the top of the first, and in 2.1 IP, he allowed seven runs on nine hits. He didn't allow a walk, but he didn't strike out anyone either, and he gave up three home runs. Two of those home runs came in the first inning, including one from Cody Bellinger, who hit his second home run of the series. 

When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary from Tuesday's game, not much went right for Falter, though his TJ Stuff+ actually wasn't as bad as the results illustrated. He struggled to generate whiffs, and the Yankees hit him hard in his 2.1 innings of work. However, the TJ Stuff+ and chase were actually pretty decent, especially for his standards.

Falter posted an overall TJ Stuff+ of 100 with his four-seamer being his best pitch in terms of TJ Stuff+. Not only did it have a 106 mark, but it also sported a 64 grade, a 55.6% zone rate, and a 25% chase rate, all of which are average to above-average marks. However, he didn't generate a single whiff with the pitch, and his .639 xwOBACON was the second-worst mark in that category of the four pitches he threw on Tuesday.

Ironically, his splitter, which was his second-best pitch in terms of TJ Stuff+ (103), had the worst xwOBACON at .901.

Tuesday was another frustrating outing for Falter, who just hasn't put it together in his time in Kansas City. In 9.2 IP this year, he has a 13.97 ERA with a 3.10 WHIP, which includes 24 hits allowed in less than 10 innings of work this season. Last year, after he came over from Pittsburgh at the Trade Deadline, he had an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP with 20 hits allowed in 12 IP with the Royals. 

Therefore, even though the TJ Stuff+ hints at a better pitcher than his results show, it may be time for the Royals to part ways with Falter.

Command Remains a Problem for Falter (Especially on Fastball)

When it comes to what Falter has done in terms of Statcast percentiles, he's actually limited barrels and hard contact, but has struggled to generate whiffs and strikes in general. Here's a look at Statcast summary this season after Tuesday's game, via TJ Stats. 

Falter actually does a good job of limiting that "productive" contact.

He has limited barrels and hard hits, and kept the average exit velocity manageable. Furthermore, his Z-Contact% allowed is actually pretty good (80.5%), considering his struggles with whiffs and CSW. Unfortunately, it's hard to ignore those "strike-generating" categories. His whiff rate ranks in the 39th percentile, his CSW ranks in the 15th percentile, and his O-Swing% ranks in the third percentile. That's not a recipe for success, especially for a pitcher with a subpar fastball (21st percentile fastball velocity). 

An issue for Falter that has limited his ability to throw strikes this year is subpar command. Even though his extension and TJ Stuff+ metrics are encouraging, he leaves pitches in hittable areas of the strike zone far too much. That was on prime display on Tuesday against the Yankees.

Here's his pitch type chart against the Bronx Bombers in his latest outing on May 26th.

Frankly, that's not a good-looking chart, simply because he's leaving way too many pitches in the middle-middle areas of the strike zone. The Yankees teed off on Falter's pitches as well, as evidenced by his pitch-description chart, which shows the results.

As Royals fans can see above, there are a lot of "In Play, No Out" and "In Play, Runs" dots in that pitch chart above. All on pitches thrown in the middle-middle areas of the strike zone. In fact, below is an example of Falter hanging a curveball right in the middle of the strike zone to Amed Rosario, and the journeyman utility player launches it like he's Aaron Judge.

While the curveball was an example of a command "mistake" of Falter in this outing, the fastball command has been a problem this year. That's disappointing considering that his four-seamer has been his best pitch on a TJ Stuff+ end this season, as illustrated in his TJ Stuff+ summary below.

Falter relies heavily on the four-seamer, as illustrated by his 61.5% usage rate on the pitch. It makes sense, since it sports a 102 TJ Stuff+, 57 grade, and .303 xwOBACON. Unfortunately, it's been a poor-performing pitch in terms of zone rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. 

Here's a heatmap breakdown of Falter's four-seamer below. Notice how often the pitch sits in the strike zone and how few whiffs it generates.

With a four-seamer, it's more ideal for a pitcher to locate it in the upper edges of the strike zone. Unfortunately, that's just not where Falter's pitch sits against lefties or righties. Against lefties, it tends to be in the lower middle of the strike zone. As a result, it has a 27.3% CSW, which is good, but all those strikes are called, not whiffs. His whiff rate with the four-seamer against lefties is zero.

Against righties, he elevates it a little more, but it still sits more in the middle of the zone (though more inside to righties). The whiff rate is a little better at 14.3%, but the CSW is lower at 23.5%. Thus, it's not a great tradeoff for Falter, and his .383 xwOBACON against righties and .436 xwOBACON against lefties with the four-seamer illustrates that it's just not an effective offering overall.

To be successful, Falter needs to be a pitcher who can command the four-seamer effectively. That isn't happening, and it doesn't seem like it's going to turn around anytime soon either.

What's the Next Move?

The Royals don't have a lot of options right now on the 40-man roster to straight-up replace Falter. Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are still on the IL, and their return timetable is unknown. Furthermore, the pitching options for guys who can go multiple innings in Omaha are thin, with Mitch Spence having the most MLB experience.

If the Royals are looking for another option who can go multiple innings and is a lefty, Ryan Ramsey could be an option. The 25-year-old former 13th-round pick doesn't have great stuff, and his ERA and FIP are high. However, he generates groundballs well and could be crafty in a reliever role, much like Sam Long, who made the transition from spot starter to reliever.

The best option to replace Falter may be Beck Way, who needs to be added to the 40-man roster to make his Royals debut.

Way was acquired from the Yankees in 2022 in the Andrew Benintendi trade, along with Chandler Champlain and T.J. Sikkema. Only Way remains in the Royals organization, but rightfully so, as Way has demonstrated a strong ability to generate whiffs and strikeouts in Omaha, something that evaded him a year ago.

In 29.1 IP, Way has a 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.91 FIP, 32.8% K%, and 24.6% K-BB%. He also demonstrates excellent TJ Stuff+, whiff, and xwOBACON metrics, according to TJ Stats.

Now 11 games under .500 and June about to be here next week, the Royals need to start thinking long-term with their roster, especially the bullpen. Kansas City's bullpen ranks 24th in ERA, 26th in WHIP, and 27th in BB/9. Thus, they need to find pitchers who can not just help those meager stat lines, but also provide upside beyond this season as well.

Way certainly can do that, and since he's Rule 5 eligible, he likely will be swooped up in the December draft if he's not added to the Royals' 40-man roster soon.

At this point, the Royals don't have anything to lose by replacing Falter with Way on the 40-man roster.