Arbitrary Thoughts: Nick Mears May Be A Risk The Royals Can't Afford In 2027

Nick Mears – Right-Handed Relief Pitcher

Age on 2027 Opening Day: 30
Service Time: 4.022

2024 Salary: $740,000
2025 Salary: $963,000 (First Year of Arbitration)
2026 Salary: $1,900,000
2027 MLB Trade Rumors Projection: $2,200,000

Nick Mears Background

Nick Mears is a pretty cool story. He went from being an undrafted junior college pitcher to making his major league debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates less than two years later.

He spent five years in Pittsburgh's organization before being claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. That stay didn't last long, as Texas designated him for assignment only four days later. The Colorado Rockies then picked him up, and he spent the 2023 season and part of 2024 with them before being traded to Milwaukee at the 2024 trade deadline.

After struggling immediately following his arrival in Milwaukee, Mears put together a strong 2025 campaign. He posted a 3.49 ERA across 56 2/3 innings with the Brewers, showing he could be a valuable piece of a major league bullpen. The Royals acquired him and Isaac Collins from Milwaukee in December in exchange for reliever Angel Zerpa. Unfortunately, Kansas City didn't get to see much of what Mears could offer, as he threw just 19 1/3 innings before landing on the injured list with a shoulder impingement.

That turned out to be more serious than initially expected. Mears was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, a condition in which nerves or blood vessels near the neck and upper chest become compressed. He underwent surgery in late August, which will likely leave him unavailable to start the 2027 season. That makes his arbitration case a little more complicated, especially with MLB Trade Rumors projecting him to earn $2.2 million next season.

2026 Stats

21 G, 19 1/3 IP, 5.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 18.1% K%, 13.3% BB%, 4.60 FIP

Royals Relief Pitcher Depth

• 40-man roster: Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Connor Thomas, Connor Seabold, Carlos Duran, Beck Way, Nolan Hoffman, Spencer Nivens, Easton McGee
• Arbitration Eligible: Nick Mears, Alex Lange, Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, Lucas Erceg, Anthony Gose
• 2027 Club Option: Carlos Estévez
• Triple-A: Tyler Guerrero, Augusto Mendieta, Shane Panzini, Luke Little, Ben Sears, Chazz Martinez, Brandon Johnson, Oscar Rayo

Why the Royals Should Offer Him Arbitration

The last time we saw Mears stay healthy for a full season, he was pretty darn good. His 3.49 ERA across 56 2/3 innings with Milwaukee in 2025 was impressive, and his underlying numbers suggest that performance wasn't a fluke.

Mears posted a 5.9% walk rate in 2025 and finished in the 93rd percentile for chase rate. Those are encouraging numbers for a reliever, as his ability to limit free passes and get hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone gives him a solid foundation to build on. Even in 2024, when his surface-level numbers suggested he struggled, his underlying metrics were outstanding. There's reason to believe Mears can be a quality major league reliever when he's healthy, and the Royals could certainly use more arms with that kind of potential.

His stuff is also interesting. Mears has a steep 55-degree arm angle that helps him generate plenty of vertical movement on his pitches. His four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball all produced at least three more inches of vertical movement than the league average this season. That makes his 2026 velocity drop particularly noteworthy. Both his four-seam fastball and slider were at career-low velocities, suggesting something wasn't right before he was eventually shut down.

If Mears can recover from surgery and regain his previous velocity, there's a chance he could return to being an effective bullpen option. His 2026 numbers don't necessarily tell the whole story, and the Royals could be getting a useful reliever if he's able to get back to full strength.

Kansas City could also have plenty of bullpen openings to fill this offseason. Mears has already shown he can be successful in the majors, and retaining him would give the Royals another potential option without having to find a replacement on the open market.

Why the Royals Should Non-Tender Him

Unfortunately, there are some pretty significant reasons the Royals might decide to move on from Mears this offseason, and most of them stem from his health. Thoracic outlet syndrome is a scary diagnosis for a pitcher. Returning to form after surgery isn't guaranteed, and plenty of pitchers who have undergone the procedure have struggled to regain their previous effectiveness.

Even if/when Mears eventually returns to the mound, there's no guarantee he'll look like the pitcher we saw in Milwaukee. His velocity was already down this year, and the Royals will have to hope that his recovery doesn't create any additional issues.

There's also the fact that he doesn't have an especially lengthy track record of success. His 2025 season was strong, and his underlying numbers have shown promise, but that was really the only full season in which he's established himself as a quality major-league reliever. That's not much to fall back on when you're trying to determine whether a $2.2 million investment makes sense. There are likely to be cheaper options available in free agency who come with fewer health concerns and a more established track record.

The timing of his injury makes this decision even more complicated.  Mears is also scheduled to become a free agent after the 2027 season. That means Kansas City would be taking on significant risk for a reliever who might not be available for the full year and could leave after the season. With so many other bullpen needs to address, I'm not sure that's a risk the Royals should be willing to take.

Prediction: The Royals Non-Tender Mears

Honestly, I hope I'm wrong about this one. Mears is a cool story, and he's the kind of player you want to see succeed in the major leagues. Going from an undrafted junior college pitcher to becoming a quality major league reliever is no small feat, and his 2025 season showed what he's capable of when everything is working.

I also understand why the Royals might want to keep him around. This bullpen could have plenty of openings heading into 2027, and finding multiple reliable relievers is a tall order. If Mears can return to his previous form, he could be a valuable addition to a group that needs all the help it can get. But the severity of his injury and his limited track record make this a difficult decision. At a projected $2.2 million salary, there's a real possibility Kansas City could find better value elsewhere, particularly if Mears won't be ready for Opening Day.

The Royals need to add multiple relievers this offseason, and there should be cheaper options available who can provide middle-inning depth from the start of the season. Rather than spending that money on an injured pitcher with plenty of uncertainty surrounding his recovery, Kansas City could use those resources to address another bullpen need.

As I said, I hope I'm wrong. Mears has already overcome plenty to get to this point in his career, and I'd love to see him get another opportunity to prove himself in Kansas City. Unfortunately, I think the risk outweighs the potential reward. The Royals will have other options available this offseason, and I expect them to decide that $2.2 million is too much to pay for that uncertainty and non-tender Mears.

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