Did The Royals Enter 2026 With Enough Starting Pitching Depth?

Before going too far, most readers may have already made up their mind that, given the Kansas City Royals' final record of 69-93, the answer is a definitive NO. At the end-of-season press conference, Picollo stated, “We came into this season.. I was as confident as I have ever been in starting pitching depth. We had nine guys we felt like we could start. At the end of the year, we had two guys that weren’t in the nine that were now starting. I’m never going to take starting pitching for granted.”

Let’s take a look at that depth. By my count, the Royals used twelve different starting pitchers not counting openers:

Cole Ragans: 8 starts, 15-day IL May 8, UCL repair surgery July 1, expected return date mid-July 2027 

Kris Bubic: 9 starts; 15-day IL May 19, 2026; Traded to the LA Dodgers August 3, 2026

Michael Wacha: 32 starts, 200.2 IP, All-Star

Seth Lugo: 32 starts, 172.1 IP

Noah Cameron: 31 games, 171.1 IP

Ryan Bergert: minor league 7-day IL April 10, Tommy John surgery April 29, expected return date June 2027

Stephen Kolek: 10 starts, 15-day IL July 19, Tommy John surgery August 5, expected return date Spring Training 2028

Ben Kudrna: minor league 7-day IL April 7, olecranon stress fracture surgery April 29, expected return date spring training 2027

Luinder Avila: 12 starts, 15-day IL August 2, Tommy John surgery August 5, expected return date spring training 2028

Mitch Spence: 1 start, 21.21 ERA

Randy Dobnak: 13 starts, 74.1 IP

Daniel Lynch IV: 10 starts, 40 IP, 6.52 ERA as a starter

Before Ragans went on the IL May 8, the Royals had already lost their 8th option, Ben Kudrna, for the season, and two days later lost their 6th option, Ryan Bergert, to Tommy John surgery, also for the season. By the time Kris Bubic went on the IL 11 days later, the Royals had lost their #1 in Ragans, #2 in Bubic, #6 in Bergert, and #8 in Kudrna for all of 2026. They just didn’t know it yet. 

Bailey Falter made three spot starts of 2, 2, and 2.1 IP each after Cole Ragans went on the 15-day IL May 8 (retroactive to May 7). He was DFA’d May 27, 2026 after posting a 12.46 ERA over 21.2 IP.

Steven Kolek and Luinder Avila were summoned in early May, and unfortunately, by August 2nd both pitchers were on the shelf, and both had Tommy John surgery on August 5, 2026.

Mitch Spence was summoned for a spot start on June 15, 2026, and was batted around for 6 runs in 4 IP. After an even worse relief outing on June 26, 2026, when Spence gave up 10 runs in 1.1 IP, he was promptly demoted back to Omaha, never to return to the Royals.

Thank goodness the Seattle Mariners were incredibly deep with starting pitching and Randy Dobnak had an upward mobility clause in his contract. On June 17, 2026, the Royals acquired Dobnak for cash considerations. No one could have imagined Dobnak would be a steadying force in the Royals rotation, but he was. He started 13 games, pitched 15, and posted an outstanding 3.51 ERA over 74.1 IP. Dobnak would be worth 1.3 Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR), third highest on the pitching staff behind only Wacha (4.3 bWAR) and Cameron (2.0 bWAR). Dobnak clearly was not in the original nine starting pitchers Picollo envisioned at the outset of the season.

The second pitcher, who was also not in the original nine, was Daniel Lynch IV. As a reward for his great season in the bullpen and his vocalized desire to return to the starting rotation, the Royals honored his request. The results were not fantastic, with a 6.52 ERA over 10 starts and 40 IP, but Lynch did take the ball every fifth day. I know the results are not what Lynch or the Royals hoped for, but he has to be elated the team gave him the opportunity he desired.

Picollo had nine starters he thought could get through the season with. He was able to pull off a trade and turn a bullpen piece into a last-ditch starting rotation. There were other names at Omaha that were insurance pieces that never returned to form in Aaron Sanchez and Vince Velazquez. It looks like there were enough options. They just didn’t pan out.

Famously, John Gruden and Ron Jaworski visited the Indianapolis Colts ahead of a Monday Night Football matchup and noticed the backup quarterback wasn’t getting any reps. Peyton Manning was the quarterback at that time. When Gruden asked long-time Indianapolis offensive coordinator Tom Moore why that was, Moore famously answered, “Fellas, if 18 goes down we’re f*****. And we don’t practice f*****.”

In a season when four of your top nine options were done for 2026 by mid-May, I think Tom Moore summed up where the Royals stood regarding starting pitching.

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