Arbitrary Thoughts: Keeping Daniel Lynch Is A No-Brainer

Daniel Lynch IV, LHP

Age on Opening Day 2027: 30
Service Time: 4.136

2024 Salary: $202,878
2025 Salary: $782,500
2026 Salary: $1,025,000
2027 MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $1,800,000

Lynch Background

Lynch was drafted by the Royals in the first round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft as a starting pitcher. Lynch struggled to find success as a major-league starter after his 2021 debut. In 2023, he battled strains in his left rotator cuff and shoulder that limited him to only nine appearances. Through the end of 2023, his career stats were headlined by a 5.18 ERA in 51 appearances. Though he showed flashes of talent with promising starts, Lynch was never able to become the reliable starter the Royals envisioned for him.

Following his injury-plagued 2023 season, Lynch began spending more time in the bullpen in 2024, often as a long reliever and averaging just over two innings per appearance. He returned to the bullpen in 2025 and posted a 3.16 ERA over 73 appearances across both seasons. By 2026, Lynch had been fully integrated into the bullpen and established himself as a key member.

Lynch's 2026 Season

56 G, 86 IP, 73 H, 26 BB, 56 K, 4.08 ERA, 1.151 WHIP

Lynch became one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing Royals bullpen in 2026. Through August, Lynch had a 1.96 ERA across 46 innings pitched with a 3.06 FIP. His season, however, took a turn when Lynch shifted back to the rotation in early August.

As a Reliever:

With many of the Royals’ starters landing on the injured list with season-ending injuries, someone needed to join the rotation, and Lynch got the nod. Unfortunately, he was not nearly as effective as a starting pitcher. Lynch made 10 starts to close out the season. In those starts, he posted a 6.53 ERA and a 6.18 FIP over 40 innings. 

As a Starter:

A few of his metrics stayed steady as his roles changed. His walk rate, ground-ball rate, and chase rate all remained relatively level. Notably, his strikeout rate and whiff rate dropped. With batters making more contact, batters were putting the ball in play more often and causing damage on the base paths.

One possible explanation for this change could be the decrease in extension from 6.7 feet to 6.4 feet. Shorter extension gives hitters slightly more time to track the ball out of a pitcher’s hand. Though his fastball velocity remained steady, the decrease in perceived velocity from the hitter’s perspective could have contributed to his lowered ability to induce swings and misses.

Royals Depth at his Position (Relief Pitcher)

• 40-man roster: Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Connor Thomas, Connor Seabold, Carlos Duran, Beck Way, Nolan Hoffman, Spencer Mivens, Easton McGee
• Arbitration Eligible: Nick Mears, Alex Lange, Nate Pearson, James McArthur, Lucas Erceg, Anthony Gose
• 2027 Club Option: Carlos Estévez
• Triple-A: Tyler Guerrero, Augusto Mendieta, Shane Panzini, Luke Little, Ben Sears, Chazz Martinez, Brandon Johnson, Oscar Rayo
• Double-A: Dennis Colleran Jr., Kamden Edge, L.P. Langevin, Zachary Cawyer, Tomas Molsky, Chase Jessee, Nate Ackenhausen, Chase Isbell, Christian Chamberlain, Dash Albus, Yimi Presina

Why the Royals Should Offer Him Arbitration

While Lynch was in the bullpen, he was undoubtedly their best reliever, albeit regression and injury from Erceg and Estevez, respectively, also contributed to that fact. JJ Picollo said that addressing the bullpen was a top priority, and that getting rid of a top performer from last year’s group would leave the front office with another role to fill.

It is reasonable to think a return to the bullpen for Lynch would likely result in performances similar to his production out of the bullpen rather than as a starter. Lynch’s history certainly suggests he adapts well to the routine of the bullpen.

Why the Royals Should Non-Tender Him

The Royals could be worried about Lynch’s regression as a starter to finish the season. If the Royals believe there are signs the regression was not solely due to the change in role, they might believe it is time to cut their losses on their former first-round draft pick.

In the same response about the bullpen, Picollo mentioned the lack of a set closer and a setup man. Even though moments where the bullpen was performing at its worst, Lynch was almost never called upon in save opportunities and only intermittently in a setup role. While Lynch was good compared to other Royals relievers in 2026, he should be compared to all potential alternatives, and his FIP exceeding his ERA could indicate regression even with a return to the bullpen. 

Prediction: The Royals Keep Lynch

To be honest, that reasoning for not tendering Lynch was not particularly compelling. Lynch was the Royals’ best reliever when in the bullpen and should definitely find a home back there in 2027. While he does not necessarily fit into a classic closer or reliever role, Lynch worked well as a fireman for the Royals. In 2027, he allowed only four of 20 inherited runners to score when entering games in the middle of a jam. Including 2025, he allowed 14.6% of inherited runners to score, which is less than half the MLB average of 31.6% over the past two seasons. This valuable skill should be welcomed back to the bullpen with open arms in 2027.

What do you think the Royals should do with Lynch? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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