Royals Fall League Recap: Lamkin Gaining Steam And Quiet Week From the Bats

[Kevin O'Brien]

 

 The Arizona Fall League enters its final full week of play for the 2026 season.

On Saturday, November 7th, and Sunday, November 8th, the AFL hosts the Home Run Derby and Fall Stars Game, respectively. The playoffs then begin November 12th and run through November 14th. Right now, the Surprise Saguaros are in the thick of the race. They are 12-9, good for second in the AFL (behind only the Peoria Javelinas). 

It was an interesting week for Royals prospects playing for Surprise in week four. The bats didn't stand out as they did in weeks 2 and 3, though a couple had respectable weeks. On the mound, some Royals arms stood out, especially Justin Lamkin, the 71st overall selection in the 2025 MLB Draft.

Let's break down the Royals hitters and pitchers in the AFL from this past week and what fans can expect as we reach the conclusion of the 2026 AFL campaign.

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Hitters: Bryan Sticks Out During Down Week for Royals Bats

Hitting stats from October 25 to October 31st

• Zion Rose, OF: 13 AB, .231/.353/.231, 2 R, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K, 3 SB.
• Brooks Bryan, C: 11 AB, .273/.385/.636, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K. 
• Austin Charles, SS/3B: 8 AB, .000/.000/.000, 0 BB, 3 K. 
• Angeibel Gomez, OF: 8 AB, .250/.250/.375, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SB. 

Bryan had a solid week, collecting a home run and a pair of runs, RBI, and walks. The former Troy Trojan leads the Saguaros with four home runs and ranks third in OPS, behind only Welbyn Francisca and Aidan Miller, heralded prospects in the Guardians and Phillies organizations, respectively. Furthermore, Bryan's .430 wOBA is impressive, as are many of his other Statcast percentiles this fall.

Based on this profile, it would not be surprising to see Bryan earn a spot in the Fall Stars game next weekend. He is definitely showing that he is ready for a spot in High-A Quad Cities in 2027. 

Rose and Gomez didn't collect many hits this week, but they didn't look overwhelmed, and they swiped some bags with four combined. There is no question that Rose and Gomez are showing they have the contact skills to reach the Major League level. However, the power and ability to barrel balls is still a question mark. Rose has less time than Gomez, as the Royals hope Rose can reach the Majors by midseason in 2028 at the latest. 

When looking at his Statcast percentiles in the AFL, Rose improving his LA Sweet-Spot%, Barrel%, and Pull Air% will be key.

As for Gomez, he's hitting .306 with a .834 OPS in 36 at-bats this fall. This performance has turned some heads in the AFL, especially among coaches in rival organizations, as profiled in this piece below from MLB Pipeline. 

 

Here's a quote from Daniel Robertson, a former Major Leaguer now a coach in the Cleveland Guardians organization who's currently coaching in Arizona this fall.

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“Unfortunately, I think the best player is going to be Angeibel Gomez [of the Royals],” said a laughing Robertson, citing the talent that Cleveland will have to contend with from its division rival. “He's learning how to separate himself. The way he carries himself as a 17-year-old kid is kind of scary because he should be a junior in high school.”

It will be interesting to see whether the Royals start Gomez in Low-A Columbia to begin 2027 or push him to High-A Quad Cities. Regardless, expect him to move up to High-A ball at some point next year, whether it's at the beginning or middle of the year.

Charles has really struggled this fall, disappointing after his solid, albeit shortened, 2026 campaign in Quad Cities. The former 20th-round pick went hitless this week, and he's hitting just .143 with a .450 OPS in 42 at-bats. He's pulling the ball in the air well, but that's all he's really doing this fall, per his Statcast profile.

I still see some upside with Charles, but he may be more of a long-term project, which isn't great news for a guy who's already 22 and currently Rule 5 eligible.

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Pitchers: Lamkin Carries the Surprise Staff (And Royals Pitching Prospects)

Pitching Stats from October 25th to 31st.

• Lamkin, LHP: 1 G, 4 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 5 K.
• Hiro Wyatt, RHP: 1 G, 2.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2 BB, 2 K.
• Frank Mozzicato, LHP: 2 G, 1.1 IP, 20.25 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 2 BB, 2K. 
• Felix Arronde, RHP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 3 K.
• Josh Hansell, RHP: 1 G, 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 BB, 1 K. 

Lamkin continues to impress in Surprise and should be representing the Saguaros and the Royals in the Fall Stars game next Saturday. After a one-run performance in four innings of work on October 29th, he now has a 3.52 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 14 K and just 4 BB in 15.1 IP. 

 

When looking at his season TJ Stuff+ summary this fall in Arizona, Lamkin is a conundrum of sorts.

On one hand, all the results have been encouraging. He's been above average in zone rate, chase rate, whiff rate, and xwOBACON, which is what one wants to see from a pitching prospect in the AFL. On the other hand, his stuff has rated poorly, with his four-seamer (85 TJ Stuff+ and 30 grade) standing out the most. Even if the TJ Stuff+ metrics trend down this fall, his TJ Stuff+ still ranks in the 10th percentile, which isn't encouraging.

It feels like something has to give with Lamkin soon: is his impeccable command and efficiency just dominating raw hitting prospects? Or does Lamkin have some secret sauce with his delivery that helps him overcome poor TJ Stuff+ metrics? The answer will likely come in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he will start this season.

Wyatt had an encouraging outing last week, allowing no runs in 2.2 innings against Mesa on October 29th. In addition to shutting the Solar Sox out in his relief appearance, he also generated a strong number of whiffs, something we really haven't seen from him this fall.

In addition to a 29.4% whiff%, he also had a 0.089 xwOBACON, which shows that Mesa hitters struggled to square him up. He didn't generate much chase (18.5%), and his control was inconsistent (43.8% zone rate), but his 98 overall TJ Stuff+ was solid, with his cutter (107 TJ Stuff+) and slider (112 TJ Stuff+) standing out. 

Wyatt hasn't advanced beyond Low-A ball, but something about his six-pitch profile makes him an intriguing reliever who could thrive at the Major League level with more seasoning and experience. He definitely is a sleeper worth watching in High-A Quad Cities next year.

If Lamkin has been the "good results, poor stuff" arm in Surprise, then Mozzicato may be the "good stuff, poor results" counterpart. In 6 outings and 4.1 IP, the former first-round pick has an 8.31 ERA and 2.31 WHIP with six walks and six strikeouts. Meanwhile, his TJ Stuff+ profile has arguably been the best of any Royals pitcher this fall in Surprise.

Mozzicato has a 101 TJ Stuff+, which ranks in the 87th percentile this fall. He also has three pitches with grades over 50, including his four-seamer (56), cutter (56), and changeup (53). That has helped him generate a 36.1% whiff rate and .331 xwOBACON, both respectable marks. It's just that his control has been so bad this fall, as illustrated by his 34.7% zone rate. 

The control needs to improve quickly if Mozzicato wants any shot at making the Majors in 2027. That said, Mozzicato's profile reminds me a lot of Beck Way. Way struggled with control in the past, but he always had the stuff, and his control finally came together enough in 2026, leading to his MLB debut and a 3.86 ERA in 23.1 IP with the Royals last year.

The stuff isn't as high-octane as Way yet, but I think Mozzicato could get there with a larger sample and a clearer bullpen role, which just began last year. The chips are still stacked against Mozzicato, but the stuff is good enough to keep believing in the polarizing pitching prospect. 

One last arm to talk about is Hansell, who's been good but hasn't been eye-popping in Arizona. He had another "good but not great" week, allowing no runs in his one outing with one strikeout and one walk in one inning of work. Even though his outings aren't "wowing" Royals fans, his body of work this fall looks more impressive.

In 5.1 IP, he has a 1.69 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 16% K-BB%, and 71.4% GB%. His TJ Stuff+ profile has also been solid, with his sinker and cutter as plus pitches this fall.

Hansell posted a 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.50 FIP in 40.2 IP last year with the River Bandits. While those numbers aren't great, one has to wonder if a full-time move to the bullpen could help his stuff play up, which in turn could lead to better results. The former 16th-round pick was a groundball-heavy pitcher with the River Bandits (48.6% GB%), so Hansell could become a solid middle-innings reliever at the MLB level who gets out of jams by inducing groundball double plays. 

I'm not sure Hansell has a ton of upside, but his stuff and approach have been solid this fall, and he deserves more consideration from Royals fans in 2027, especially as he moves up to Double-A Northwest Arkansas.  

 

Image courtesy of Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

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