Carter Jensen’s Power Surge Raised The Royals’ Biggest Question About His Future

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images

Well, you already know how great the kid is. Carter Jensen finished the season among the American League rookie leaders in doubles (1st, 35), extra-base hits (1st, 64), RBIs (2nd, 81), home runs (3rd, 27), slugging percentage (3rd, .467), walks (3rd, 65), total bases (3rd, 246), hits (5th, 126), and OPS (5th, .790). He hit 27 home runs in 149 games, surpassing Bob Hamelin (24 HR in 1994) to establish the Royals rookie home run record, and led all Royals with 81 RBIs, becoming the third Kansas City rookie to lead the team in that category, joining Bobby Witt Jr. in 2022 (80) and Hamelin in 1994 (65). His 81 RBIs were the third-highest total in a rookie season in Royals history, behind Carlos Beltran’s 108 in 1999 and Kevin Seitzer’s 83 in 1987.

The power he unleashed at the plate took him to another level, but what I want to analyze here is Jensen’s legitimate impact as a power hitter and how much he can improve in the future.

So there are two things to start with here. First, one of the most interesting trends Jensen unleashed alongside his power was finishing in the 86th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, the 85th in Barrel%, and the 77th in Batting Run Value. It was his 84th-percentile Chase% rating combined with plate discipline that led him to finish in the 73rd percentile in BB%. It is not what you often expect from a hitter who is just 23 years old, especially considering this was a continuation of an initial 69-plate-appearance sample last year. And, well, it actually was, but now that Jensen has been able to extend his plate discipline across 603 trips to the plate, some of our doubts have been answered.

Second, how Jensen adjusted to bounce back after a slow start in which he hit just seven home runs and posted a .368 slugging percentage over his first 59 games. He changed part of his mechanics over the rest of the way, starting in July. Jensen adjusted his stance in the batter’s box, moving 2.1 inches closer to the plate, moving 1.2 inches forward in the box, and increasing his stance angle from 6° to 19°, adopting a more open stance. These changes coincided with his offensive resurgence over the rest of the way, as he hit 20 home runs and produced a 136 wRC+ in 388 plate appearances over the rest of the way.

So, after a first half of the season with a 97 wRC+, Jensen propelled himself forward and ultimately unleashed his power after the All-Star break, raising his ISO from .184 to .289 and his walk rate from 9.0% to 13.2% to produce a 141 wRC+.

He was named American League Player of the Month for September and became the first catcher in Royals history to receive that monthly recognition, an award established in 1974. He led the Major Leagues in September in doubles (10), extra-base hits (19), slugging percentage (.787), and OPS (1.194). His 63 total bases led the American League, and his eight home runs tied for second in that league.

Jensen quickly established himself as a fastball destroyer, producing 17 of his 27 home runs against three types of fastballs, 10 against four-seamers, five against cutters, and two against sinkers. That was not the end of the story, as 33 of his 64 extra-base hits also came against fastballs, accounting for 51.6%.

Although Jensen recorded a positive Run Value of 1 against four-seam fastballs, he struck out in 36.3% of his 182 at-bats and finished with just a .156 xBA. He also struggled at the plate against sliders and sweepers, finishing with negative values of -2 and -5, respectively. So his power was also limited against some breaking balls and off-speed pitches, although the biggest problem was in some of the locations where Jensen was pitched. Let’s look at the heat map of his home runs.

As you can see here, Jensen rarely got a pitch that wasn’t middle-middle or near the lower, inside part of the zone. He hit only two of his home runs on pitches in the upper third of the strike zone, and just one on a high pitch outside the zone. In other words, he was a destroyer of command mistakes or, in other cases, pitches that tried to challenge him by attempting to get through the middle of the plate. That said, let’s now look at the map of the zones where Jensen had the highest whiff percentages against right-handed and left-handed pitchers.

Well, let’s keep in mind before we begin that Jensen had an interesting split against lefties. He posted a higher BABIP against them (.330 compared to .279 against righties), but his power production was much lower, with his slugging falling from .507 to .368.

Let’s move on and take a look at the pair of charts, which include every pitch Jensen has seen in his first two seasons. On the left is Jensen’s chart against left-handed pitchers, and you can see how he missed most often inside the zone when they pitched to the edges, especially on high pitches. And then, although many of the percentages outside the zone came on pitches in a smaller proportion, he also regularly had problems with pitches away. On the right, the story changes a little, as Jensen posted a 127 wRC+ and had a better BB/K ratio of 0.44 compared to 0.26 against lefties.

If you look closely, you’ll see that against right-handers, Jensen’s swings and misses decreased against pitches on the outer edges and in the lower zones, and you already know how he destroyed the pitches he could take advantage of in the middle.

The big question I ask myself here is how Jensen will adjust when the league starts pitching to him much more effectively on the corners and in the upper third of the strike zone, trying to limit so many vulnerable pitches in the middle of the plate, especially fastballs. Will he continue to maintain his approach without trying to chase too much? Will he give up a little of his 23.1 Pull/AIR%? Or will he keep looking for ways to crush pitches instead of prioritizing contact a little more?

Personally, I would like the Royals to take much greater advantage of his power, perhaps by using him in another lineup spot where he can get more at-bats with runners on base, but I also love the idea of seeing him step up to the plate as the leadoff hitter, bringing the feeling that the game could start with a home run.

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I am looking forward to seeing him in action next season.  I am sure over the winter, opposing teams will look at all the information available and pitch him differently.  My hope is that during the winter Jensen will prepare himself to be able to adjust to the different pitches he will probably see.