Should Randy Dobnak Be Part of the Royals' Plans in 2027?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

 

The Kansas City Royals' nine-game winning streak finally came to an end on Wednesday night, as they lost to the Blue Jays 3-0.

 

The Royals had their chances in this one, but they left eight runners on base and went 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position. That's not going to result in a victory, even if the Blue Jays were just as frustrating with ducks on the pond in this one (1-for-5 with runners in scoring position). 

Even though Kansas City lost, fans couldn't blame the pitching in this one. The lone runs from the Blue Jays came on a three-run home run by Nathan Lukes in the bottom of the fourth inning.

 

Other than that mistake changeup, Randy Dobnak was solid once again on the mound for the Royals.

In a losing effort, Dobnak produced another quality start. He allowed three runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five in six innings of work. It was a pretty typical start for Dobnak in Toronto: he didn't possess great stuff or generate a ton of whiffs, but he kept the Blue Jays off balance and generated a lot of weak contact.

Dobnak allowed only a .342 xwOBACON in this one, which rates slightly above average. That helped him succeed despite lackluster TJ Stuff+ (93), zone% (47.8%), chase% (25%), and whiff% (12.5%) numbers. Over his 92 pitches, the 31-year-old righty leaned heavily on his sinker (45.7% usage).

Dobnak flooded the strike zone with the fastball offering, as evidenced by a 59.5% zone rate. While he gave up a few hits with the pitch, for the most part, he generated a lot of outs with it, even though he threw it clearly in the strike zone a majority of the time, as illustrated by his sinker zone chart from Wednesday.

After the outing, Dobnak sits with a 1.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.76 FIP, and 5.9% K-BB% in 10 outings (eight starts) and 51.2 IP. Despite major injuries to so many key starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, Dobnak has stepped up and kept the Royals' rotation competitive. One could argue that he's been the Royals' best pitcher since the All-Star Break, which is a testament to him and a black eye on the rest of the Royals' starting pitching staff.

The former Minnesota Twin will be entering his second season of arbitration next season, and his future seems unclear, even in the midst of all the Royals' pitching injuries. Does Kansas City keep him on the 40-man roster and give him a shot to keep his rotation spot in 2027? Or do the Royals non-tender him and replace him with a free-agent starting pitcher this offseason?

Let's look at the case for keeping Dobnak, the case for non-tendering him, and what the Royals should do with their surprising pitching stud next season.

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The Case to Keep Dobnak

Dobnak doesn't strike many guys out, but he's become a savant as a pitcher, much in the mold of a Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo. In fact, he's shown that he can be just as good, if not better, than those two veterans over the past month with the Royals.

In August, Dobnak has been the third-best Royals starting pitcher in terms of fWAR (0.4), and his 3.09 FIP ranks third as well, as seen in the table below via Fangraphs.

The 31-year-old righty has definitely benefited from a high LOB%, which explains why his xERA of 4.92 is so much higher than his actual 2.29 ERA. That said, he's struck out more batters than Noah Cameron (6.83 K/9), Lugo (6.75 K/9), and Wacha (5.55 K/9) this month, and his 54% GB% also leads the five-pitcher sample from above. 

When looking at his Statcast percentile, Dobank ranks below average in many categories, which dampens his overall profile. However, he's been effective in three important categories: O-Swing% (chase), barrel%, and GB% (groundball percentage).

The Statcast profile may underwhelm those who haven't been paying attention to Dobnak or the Royals in general this season. However, Dobnak arguably has a better Statcast profile than veteran Lugo, who lags behind Dobnak this year in barrel%, O-Swing%, and GB%. 

Lugo has a lot going for him. His pitch mix is much more impressive than Dobnak, as Lugo sports four pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or better. Dobnak has only one, his changeup, which has a 100 TJ Stuff+. Furthermore, Lugo has a better zone rate and limits free passes better than Dobnak, which matters for a starting pitcher. Lastly, the 36-year-old righty has been much more durable this year, as evidenced by his 150.1 IP in 27 outings. 

Then again, Dobnak isn't making $21.5 million this year and next like Lugo. Instead, the former undrafted free agent is making the league minimum of $780,000, finishing a one-year deal he signed with the Mariners last offseason, according to Spotrac.

When Dobnak has been mixing it up well, he's been able to freeze and lock up many hitters. That was the case recently with the Athletics' Henry Bolte, whom Dobnak struck out on a sweeper back in the Royals' win over the Athletics on August 20th at Kauffman Stadium. 

The stuff isn't elite, but Dobnak is crafty, durable, and works fast on the mound. The Royals need a pitcher like that in 2027, and he gives the Royals a lot more guarantees for time on the mound than other options like Ryan Bergert, Ben Kudrna, and even Cole Ragans, who are all coming off injuries from this past season.

Even with some expected regression in 2027, Dobnak could be able to produce enough on the mound to be a worthwhile No. 5 pitcher for the Royals who could produce an ERA in the low fours or high threes and generate an fWAR of 1.5 to 2.0 in a full season.

For an end-of-the-rotation arm, that's not just serviceable but an asset of value, especially considering all the injuries that have affected pitching staffs this season. 

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The Case Against Dobnak

While the Statcast percentiles aren't great, his TJ Stuff+ summary from this year may be even worse. 

Dobnak is not just posting a subpar 93 TJ Stuff+, but he's also sporting a 43.1% zone rate and 20.4% whiff rate, both below-average marks in those respective categories. While he is generating a decent amount of chase and strong xwOBACON numbers, the rubber is going to meet the road for Dobnak regression-wise sooner rather than later.

The Royals could give Dobnak a guaranteed spot in the rotation and a bump in his paycheck. That said, he could also tank over a full season and regress back to the pitcher who posted a 7.64 ERA and 5.59 ERA in 2023 and 2024 with the Twins. Against the Angels on August 15th, Dobnak made some mistakes that resulted in extra-base hits, with this double from former Royal Adam Frazier being a prime example.

The sinker in that at-bat isn't in a terrible location. However, it's a bad command of an 0-2 count pitch, and the veteran Frazier makes Dobnak and the Royals pay with a double. A silver lining is that Moisés Ballesteros was on first, and because of his slow speed, he couldn't score on the double (most hitters would). 

Thus, at-bats like that, along with lackluster stuff metrics, should give Royals fans pause. The Royals also have some intriguing arms ready for 2027. That includes Tony Gonsolin and John Means, both of whom are on their way back from the IL soon. Gonsolin threw a rehab outing in Omaha on Wednesday, and Means had one in Quad Cities.

 

 

 

Gonsolin was solid in his first outing with the Royals organization. He allowed no runs, no hits, and only one walk in three innings of work. The former Dodgers pitcher also struck out three batters to boot. While the fastball stuff wasn't impressive, the rest of his repertoire proiled nicely, as seen below via his TJ Stuff+ summary.

Gonsolin's fastball was alarming, but it's also an effect of not pitching for almost a year. As for Means, he had a quick outing, allowing only one hit and no runs or walks in an inning of work. 

The Royals clearly have more upside with Gonsolin and Means than Dobnak, who just has never been the same kind of caliber of pitcher as those two. 

Kansas City has always been a bad team at holding onto guys, especially pitchers, too long and not moving on sooner rather than later.

Dobnak may be a prime dilemma for Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo, who knows he has to win in 2027 to reinvigorate the fanbase. Dobnak is too old to be part of the future. Also, for a team that's going to finish with a losing record in 2026, it's important for the Royals to invest in assets with a ceiling rather than ones who may simply be flashes in the pan.

Could Dobank be another example of the latter? Unfortunately, based on his TJ Stuff+ metrics and other results, it feels likely, which could result in an ugly 2027 for Dobank in Kansas City. 

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Final Thoughts

The returns of Gonsolin and Means could be huge boosts to this pitching staff, and perhaps Ben Kudrna, Ryan Bergert, and Cole Ragans will be healthy to return at some point in 2027. That said, none of those guys listed above are guaranteed contributors, especially with all of those pitchers having robust injury histories over their careers. 

I am not sure if you go into 2027 with Dobnak guaranteed a spot in the Royals' rotation. However, does he deserve to keep his roster spot and challenge for a rotation spot in Spring Training? Absolutely. Dobnak has done enough this season to earn that consideration on both ends.

Even with the returning pitchers coming off the IL in 2027, the Royals will need to boost their rotation in some way. It wouldn't be surprising to see them pick up a couple of starting pitchers, much like they did in 2024 with Wacha and Lugo, whom they signed in free agency. Like Wacha and Lugo, I expect the Royals to pursue pitchers like Tyler Mahle, Jeffrey Springs, or Michael Soroka rather than big-money ones like Zac Gallen, Michael King, or Tarik Skubal.

The Royals will want pitching depth in 2027, and that likely means Dobnak stays around, even with the addition of new arms to the pitching staff (and the return of a few others).

Maybe Dobnak's role is different next year. Maybe he's a spot starter or a long reliever for Kansas City next season, which is much different from the regular starting pitcher role he's been given this season.

Still, Dobnak could thrive in that kind of role, which is why I believe he's in Surprise, Arizona next Spring. Fewer innings for Dobnak will conserve his mojo on the mound and make it harder for hitters to scout and hit against, especially with his extensive six-pitch mix.

Furthermore, with two minor league options, if Dobnak doesn't work out next Spring Training, they can option him and get him some work in Omaha to prepare for a sudden call-up in Kansas City to replace a hurt pitcher. 

 

 

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