Latest Incident Not the Start to 2026 That Carter Jensen Envisioned

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The Royals lost the series finale on Thursday against the Twins 5-1. It was a frustrating loss, as the Royals had more hard hits (11) than the Twins (6), but were unable to cash in any runs. No Kansas City hitter had more than one hit on Thursday, and they were shut out and held to five hits by Twins starter Taj Bradley.

The former Tampa Bay Rays pitcher had only three strikeouts against the Royals, but he held the Kansas City lineup in check and continued his hot start to the 2026 MLB season.

 

After a slog of a game yesterday that went three hours and thirty-six minutes, the Royals appeared flat on the offensive end in the series finale, much to the chagrin of starter Cole Ragans. The Royals' Opening Day starter held the Twins to only one run on four hits while striking out six batters. Unfortunately, that resulted in a losing effort for Ragans, even though it was miles better than what he produced in Atlanta last week on Opening Day.

 

Furthermore, the Royals didn't start the day on a great note. Rookie catcher Carter Jensen was scratched from the lineup about an hour before game time, with no explanation initially.

 

Most Royals fans worried that an injury was at play, especially with the announcement coming so close to first pitch. However, Jensen was seen warming up with pitchers during the game, and he later substituted defensively for Salvador Perez when Tyler Tolbert pinch-ran for Salvy in the 8th inning. Thus, that injury theory was debunked by his late entry into the game.

After the postgame press conference, Royals media reported that Jensen was scratched from the lineup due to oversleeping and arriving late to the ballpark. 

 

There's no question that expectations are high with Jensen going into 2026. Not only is he the Royals' primary backup catcher, but he is widely seen as a possible Rookie of the Year candidate, not an easy task in a league that includes Detroit's Kevin McGonigle and Cleveland's Chase DeLauter. However, this "oversleeping" incident doesn't help his start to his first full season with the Royals, especially considering how he's performed at the plate thus far. 

Therefore, let's break down the aftermath of this Jensen incident, look at his performance after two series of games, and what Royals fans can take away with Jensen and his role on this Kansas City ballclub for the remainder of the season.

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"There are some things that cannot happen, and that's one of them."

The media session in the locker room was certainly a lively one for a 5-1 loss in game six of the season. As expected, reporters asked Jensen what happened, and he didn't shy away from the spotlight or tough questions, especially in the wake of a Royals four-run defeat. 

 

When watching the interview, it's evident that Jensen wasn't brushing off the incident. He owned up to his mistake, and one can tell from his voice that he was a bit emotional or embarrassed by the incident. Typically, Jensen is a very confident and eloquent speaker with a very laid-back attitude. That certainly wasn't the case in the interview above. He definitely understands the gravity of what happened, why he was scratched, and the distraction it may have caused, leading up to an important game against a divisional rival. 

Other teammates were asked about the incident, and Vinnie Pasquantino was the most vocal about Jensen's incident. Vinnie showed compassion to Jensen, but he didn't let him off the hook. The Royals' first baseman also reiterated that the situation had an impact on the team leading up to the game, especially on Salvy, who was prepared to DH and had to switch to catching so close to game time.

 

For those who cannot watch the video or hear the audio, here's the transcript of what Vinnie said to the press, courtesy of KC Star columnist Sam McDowell.

Quote

"You got a 36-year-old catcher who's preparing to DH today, and his world gets a little rocked that an hour and a half before the game, he's not going to be DH'ing. Give credit to Salvy today for being ready. First and foremost, I'm glad Carter's OK. I mean that was kind of the initial thought when you're trying to get a hold of his parents and everything like that — just make sure he's OK. But once you find out he's OK, all right, it's a growing moment.

He's really young. There are some things that cannot happen, and that's one of them. So he's gonna have to wear it on the chin — same way anybody would have to. It can't happen, and hopefully it doesn't happen again. But it's one of those things that you just can't afford mistakes like that in this game. Just gotta move forward the best that he can. I know he feels really bad. I know it was not his favorite drive to the field this morning, but it wasn't our favorite morning either, trying to figure out what was going on.

He'll learn from it, grow a little bit. We're here for him, though. It's not like anybody's mad at him. Things happen. But you gotta learn from mistakes like that — and maybe get another alarm clock or something."

The Royals are lucky to have a leader who is as vocal and aware as Pasquantino.

It would be easy to completely throw Jensen under the bus here and ruin his confidence. That said, it could also be easy to brush this incident off as not a "big deal" either. That's not exactly the standard a clubhouse wants to set, especially one with playoff aspirations. Thankfully, Pasquantino was able to strike a balance between the two camps, helping set the tone for their young player while ensuring he feels supported in the moment.

 

It also appeared, according to reports, that Bobby Witt Jr. was involved, though he wasn't as vocal as Vinnie in the locker room with the media.

 

This wasn't what the Royals wanted to deal with after a four-run loss and an upcoming series against the 5-1 Milwaukee Brewers looming this weekend. That said, it seems like accountability has been taken all around, especially from Jensen. 

Let's hope that this is the "wake-up call" (both literally and figuratively) that Jensen needed as he continues to adjust to life as a Major League player. 

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Poor Results So Far (Though the Statcast Metrics Are Encouraging)

It would be one thing if Jensen had this incident happen, and he was producing numbers similar to his 2025 metrics. Unfortunately, that is not the case so far in 2026.

In 18 plate appearances, Jensen is hitting .125 with a .480 OPS. He has a home run, but he is also striking out 44.4% of the time and only walking 5.6% of the time. Furthermore, his wOBA is only .207, and his xwOBA is even worse at .188. For context, the Royals rookie catcher posted a .403 wOBA and .447 xwOBA in 69 plate appearances last season. 

A microcosm of Jensen's struggles this year can be seen in this plate appearance against Minnesota reliever Kody Funderburk on Opening Day at Kauffman Stadium on March 30th. On a 3-2 count, Funderburk serves him up a fastball right down the middle. It's a pitch Jensen would've mashed a season ago. Unfortunately, Jensen, obviously pressing, watches it for strike three. 

Striking out isn't something "new" to Jensen. He's always been a patient hitter, and the strikeouts have been relatively high for a prospect of his caliber. 

In Double-A Northwest Arkansas last year, he had a 22.7% K%. In Triple-A Omaha, he had a 28.3% K%. However, the K rates were tolerable because Jensen also had high walk rates, resulting in good BB/K ratios. In 2025, he had walk rates of 9.7% in Northwest Arkansas and 16.3% in Omaha. This resulted in BB/K ratios of 0.43 with the Naturals and 0.58 with the Storm Chasers. 

Last year with the Royals, his K% was only 17.4%, and his BB/K ratio was 0.75. While this is fantastic, it was unrealistic to expect Jensen to automatically be a sub-20% K% hitter again. While some improvement is to be expected, fans need to temper their expectations for Jensen in these categories. Perhaps a 25% K% and 0.45 BB/K ratio (it's currently 0.13) would be something to celebrate, especially over a full 162-game season at the MLB level.

Another discouraging trend for Jensen through these first six games is that he just isn't launching the ball well. His average launch angle on batted balls this year is 4.7 degrees, lower than his 7.4-degree average launch angle a season ago. He also has a groundball rate of 55.6%, 9.8 percentage points higher than his 2025 rookie sample. That partially explains why his xwOBA is below his actual wOBA so far and has been trending in the wrong direction this season.

On the other hand, there's still been a lot to be encouraged about with Jensen, which is why the Royals and fans should remain patient with the 22-year-old.

His hard-hit rate of 44.4% is still 7.4 percentage points higher than league-average, and his 11.1% barrel rate is 3.9 percentage points better than league-average. He is still demonstrating good bat speed, averaging 74.9 MPH on his swing, 0.1 MPH better than a year ago. His fast-swing rate of 45.8% is higher than his 43.7% fast-swing rate in 2025. Those are promising signs that the tools and skills are still there to be successful at the plate.

An interesting development for Jensen skills-wise, especially in terms of bat tracking data, is that his swing has been a little longer to start this season.

Last year, his swing length was 6.9 feet. This year? It's 7.1 feet. It's a minute difference, but it correlates with his declines in squared-up and blast rates this year. After posting 35.8% squared-up rate and 25.3% blast rate on contact last year, those rates are now down to 26.7% and 6.7%, respectively. It's hard to get base hits if one is struggling to square up with the ball.

An interesting development is that Jensen seems to be swinging through with two hands more, or at least on swings where he grounds out. That could be adding that little bit of length to his swing, which may be contributing to his early squared-up and blast issues.

Below is a compilation of clips of him making contact on fastball pitches thrown in the same part of the strike zone. In the 2025 clip, he blasts a single off the Athletics' Mitch Spence. This year's clip? He ground out to first against Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson on Opening Day.

It's still early, and as stated before, the pressing may be contributing to that extra swing length that's throwing him off when it comes to squaring up with the ball more consistently. That said, his strong barrel and hard-hit rates, as well as encouraging bat speed, should help Royals fans remain optimistic with Jensen and his outlook for 2026 and beyond.

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What to Take Away From Jensen's Start (Including the Thursday Incident)

Looking at his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles summary, there are still many areas where Jensen is succeeding. Thus, Royals fans shouldn't worry that JJ Picollo will be sending him to Triple-A Omaha anytime soon.

At the same time, I think this start to the year has been a bit sobering for the local star.

Last year, pretty much everything went right for Jensen in his Royals debut. He hit the ball hard, effectively, and productively, and he seemed to get a lot of fanfare as a result. Jensen earned all the accolades he received last year, and the Royals did the right thing by having him on the Opening Day roster and as the primary backup to Salvy. He's not only the best option as backup catcher, but he's also a player who can give quality at-bats at DH as well.

That said, he didn't really go through much struggle last year at the Major League level. That just isn't part of the game, unfortunately. Struggles will come at some point for a young player. What separates the good players from the mediocre to bad ones is that the former are able to bounce back and overcome those struggles, while the latter ones aren't. That's the difference between the Witts and Salvys of the Royals world from the MJ Melendez and Adalberto Mondesi types. 

What's unique about Jensen's situation is that he is not just going through on-field struggles. He also had an off-the-field one. Is it a major off-the-field incident? Absolutely not. But it happened, it got some national attention, and it affected the team. Jensen can't escape that.

Right now, Jensen is saying all the right things. He knows he made a mistake. He knows he can't do it again. And he knows he's not a player of a caliber that can do those things and get away with it. That incident and his slow start at the plate are the reality checks that Jensen didn't experience in his short sample size last year. 

Now that they have happened, it will be interesting to see how the young Park Hill product responds. 

This weekend's Brewers series at the K will be a great early test. 

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