Four Bold Royals Team Predictions for 2026

[Kevin O'Brien]

It's been tough for Royals fans as two days of baseball have passed and Kansas City has not yet played a game. I get that networks want to hype and stretch out "Opening Day", but it feels weird for the Royals to be on the sideline for so long when some teams will have nearly two games under their belt by the time first pitch happens in Atlanta on Friday.

Still, separation and anticipation can make the heart grow fonder, or whatever the saying is, I guess.

With the Royals finally opening their 2026 campaign against the Braves at Truist Park on Friday evening, it seemed like a good idea to share a few bold predictions about this Royals team as a group. In my last post, I made five Royal players' predictions for the upcoming season. In this one, I will share four general predictions about this Royals squad and share my reasons for those bold statements. 

Thus, let's take a look at those four predictions and what they could mean for the Royals as a whole in 2026.

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The Royals Will Win 88 Games and the Division

PECOTA projects the Royals to win around 85 games, the best projected record in the American League Central. In fact, this is how Baseball Prospectus' projection system expects the AL Central to shake out in 2026.

1. Kansas City Royals: 85.3 (SimW) - 76.7 (SimL), 45.9% Div%, and 60% Playoff%
2. Detroit Tigers: 83.9 (SimW) - 78.1 (SimL), 35.6% Div%, and 49.3% Playoff%
3. Minnesota Twins: 78.8 (SimW) - 83.2 (SimL), 12.1% Div%, and 20.3% Playoff%
4. Cleveland Guardians: 75.4 (SimW) - 86.6 (SimL), 5.3% Div%, and 8.5% Playoff%
5. Chicago White Sox: 69.8 (SimW) - 92.2 (SimL), 1.1% Div%, and 1.6% Playoff%

Looking at those projections and how I think the rest of the division will fare, I think many of the teams below the Tigers will trend down and underperform their projections. As for Detroit, I think they will outperform their 83.9 simulation wins total, but not by much. Thus, I think the Royals will outperform their win total by three, based on those factors and those of other teams in the division.

Kansas City should be able to reach the 88-win benchmark in 2026. That was the number the Guardians won the division with in 2025. I think 88 wins will be good enough for the Royals to win the AL Central, with the Tigers coming up short, just like last season, to the Guardians, with 86 wins. 

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The Royals Will Make the ALCS

This is a bold one, but I believe that if the Royals make the postseason, they will go on a run and reach the American League Championship Series. 

I think the Royals face the Orioles in an ALDS rematch and once again come out victorious over Baltimore in four games. That should bring them to the ALCS, which will be against the hated Yankees. The Royals go toe-to-toe with the Bronx Bombers, taking them to Game 7. However, I feel like the Royals fall just short of a pennant, especially with the series finale taking place in New York.

 

Kansas City losing, in a debilitating fashion, to the Yankees again is tough to stomach for Royals fans who can't stand the Evil Empire. It is especially tough to think about for Royals fans alive in 1976 who watched Chris Chambliss send the Yankees to the World Series with a walk-off home run against the Royals.

While a loss to the Yankees would be disappointing, it would be in the ALCS, which is one round better than their 2024 exit in the ALDS.

Thus, in 2027, that would be the year the Royals would get over the hump and back in the World Series. It would be much like 1980, when the Royals got over the Yankees' hump and into their first World Series in franchise history.

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The Royals Will Finish 8th in Runs Scored Per Game 

Fangraphs' Depth Charts has released its team projections for the upcoming season. They are a little more pessimistic about the Royals in their projections, expecting Kansas City to win 82 games and finish second again in the AL Central division. Depth Charts is not very optimistic about the AL Central overall, as it projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division with an 84-78 record. 

One aspect that stood out in the Royals' projection was their runs scored per game (RS/G). Depth Charts projects the Royals to produce a 4.60 RS/G. That would be the eighth-best mark in baseball.

 

The Royals' offense has upgraded this season. Gone are Hunter Renfroe, Mark Canha, Cavan Biggio, and MJ Melendez (all on the Opening Day roster in 2025), and in their place are Isaac Collins, Starling Marte, Lane Thomas, and Jac Caglianone. That is a massive upgrade offensively, and should bode well for better results in 2026.

 

Even some experts are optimistic about the Royals' lineup heading into this upcoming season.

 

Kansas City didn't acquire a big-name player as hoped earlier in the offseason. They weren't able to trade for Jarren Duran or Brendan Donovan, two names tied to the Royals during the Winter Meetings. 

That said, despite missing out on those two players, this offense will be considerably better than the one that ranked 22nd in wRC+ a season ago, according to Fangraphs.

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The Royals' Pitching Staff Will Rank 15th in Runs Allowed Per Game

Kansas City didn't have a whole lot of injury luck with pitchers last year, especially starting ones. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright didn't throw a pitch for the Royals in 2025, Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic missed considerable time on the IL, and Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Erceg, and Seth Lugo were also sidelined for shorter periods due to injuries. 

However, that didn't seem to have a huge impact on the Royals pitchers' results in 2025.

 

According to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 6th in pitching ERA with a 3.73 ERA and 9th in pitcher fWAR with a 17.5 mark. Kansas City overcame those injuries with breakout seasons from arms like Noah Cameron and Carlos Estevez. They also saw new pitchers emerge like Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert, both coming from San Diego in the Freddy Fermin trade at the Trade Deadline. 

 

The Royals' pitching staff seems deeper than it was a year ago, especially at this time of the season. That said, the projections are expecting some regression from the Kansas City pitchers in 2026.

Depth Charts projects the Royals to allow 4.62 runs per game (RA/G). That is tied with the Guardians for 22nd in baseball. That is a considerable dropoff, but regression due to age and new park factors could hit pitchers like Cameron, Lugo, and Michael Wacha hard in 2026. It wouldn't be surprising to see those three struggles after varying levels of success with the Royals over the past couple of seasons. 

If that happens, the Royals' overall pitching effectiveness, as expressed in RA/G, will drop to more mediocre numbers. However, I don't think they will fall to 22nd. I could see them finishing 15th, which would put them in the 4.45 to 4.50 RA/G range.  Being in that range will be good enough to help them win 88 games, especially with their improvement in hitting and run scoring. 

I could also see the Royals being more aggressive with their pitching at the Trade Deadline and upgrading their rotation and/or bullpen, as they did in 2024. That should help them not just win the division, but win a playoff series against the Orioles.

Unfortunately, I think the regression in pitching will come to hurt the Royals in their eventual ALCS matchup with the Yankees, who are just a little bit deeper than the Royals at this time. 

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