How Have The Royals Fared Using The New ABS Challenge System?

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images

Major League Baseball is implementing the new Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System starting in the 2026 season. The Statcast data from Baseball Savant provides a number of visualizations for the results of these challenges.

Royals Team Performance Using ABS

Overall, the Royals saw moderate success in challenges this spring. They were much more aggressive on the batting side than catching, ranking eighth highest challenge rate for batters (5.5%) and the seventh lowest for catchers (1.8%).

The Royals were on the aggressive side of teams this spring, with their first challenge coming on average between the third and fourth innings in the 27 spring games in which they issued a challenge. The Royals were also the team to run out of challenges the second-earliest, losing their second challenge between the 4th and 5th innings in the 10 games in which they ran out of challenges.

When it comes to overall success rate, the Royals were more successful on the catching side despite their lower volume. The Royals saw 62% of challenges overturned when challenging as catchers and only 34% of challenges overturned as batters. Their success rate was above league-average (60%) for catchers, while their batter success rate fell below the league average (46%).

Baseball Savant also measures success rate against expected challenges, which accounts for “pitch location, number of remaining challenges, runners on, and ball/strike/out situation”. As a batting team, the Royals recorded 2.7 fewer overturns than expected. Defensively, however, they performed much better, finishing with 5.9 more overturns than expected as catchers.

Individual Royals Performances

Royals Batters

For individuals, the sample size is rather small, with Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins accounting for most of the challenges, each with four, so these results should be taken with caution.

Nick Loftin and Jac Caglianone were the best batters when it came to challenges relative to expectation. Loftin won both of his challenges, resulting in 2.0 overturns above expected. Caglianone went 3-for-3 in his challenges with 1.7 overturns above expected. Notably, Caglianone was also able to reverse a strikeout and gain a walk in his challenges.

John Rave and Isaac Collins were the worst performers in challenges. Collins lost all four of his challenges, which resulted in 2.9 fewer overturns than expected. He challenged at the highest rate of all Royals at 17.4%, and his aggressiveness may reflect the struggles he had at the plate this spring.

Rave lost both of his challenges, resulting in 2.1 overturns fewer than expected. Rave also fell victim to the most challenges by the opposing team, with opposing catchers going 3-for-3 against him and producing 2.2 more overturns than expected.

Royals Catchers

Royals catchers overall performed well, with five of the seven challenging catchers outperforming expectations when challenging. 

Elías Díaz was the standout performer with 2.1 overturns more than expected, winning three of his four challenges. Salvador Perez was the only catcher with more than one challenge to finish below expectation, with 0.2 overturns fewer than expected, winning three of his six challenges.

For catchers, it is worth looking at how batters performed against them to see if they are able to “fool” batters and induce poor challenges. Carter Jensen was the catcher most challenged, with 12 challenges against him. The batters won seven of those challenges, with 0.2 more overturns than expected. Notably, batters were able to flip four strikeouts and add one walk with challenges while Jensen was catching. 

Perez also saw hitters earn 1.0 overturns more than expected in their two challenges against him.

Blake Mitchell and Luca Tresh were the most effective performers when facing challenges. Mitchell and Tresh each induced 0.2 fewer overturns than expected in their four and three challenges, respectively.

Takeaways

While the Royals' batters challenge more often than catchers relative to league averages this spring, their success rates indicate that they would be better suited to favor challenges from their catchers moving forward. 

As the 2026 season progresses, teams will continue to find their ideal strategies in challenging. For the Royals, it will be important to hone in their strategy and balance in challenging as key overturned calls could meaningfully impact close games. With the Royals projected to be on the fringe of AL playoff contention, marginal advantages in ABS challenges could be decisive to their success in 2026.

View full article