Have the Royals Done Enough to Compete in 2026?

[Philip Ruo]

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The American League Central has been relatively quiet this offseason. Have the Royals done enough to make a push for the playoffs? The Tigers are the presumed favorite to win the division, but have the Royals done enough to be a lock for second place?

Barring any pushes from a non-roster invite, the only additions the Royals made at the major-league level have come in the outfield and bullpen. How much should we anticipate these additions' impact on the team’s performance? Last week, Fangraphs published a breakdown of the ZiPs projections for 2026, which had the Royals tied with the Tigers at the top of the AL Central with 83 wins each, though the Tigers had a slightly higher chance to make the postseason. Since that article was published, the Tigers signed Framber Valdez to a three-year contract with the highest average annual value for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. Now, as of writing this post, ZiPS has adjusted its projections, dropping the Royals to 81 wins and boosting the Tigers to 86.7 wins and a significantly higher chance to win the division at 59.3%. 

Looking at the rest of the AL Central, the Guardians’ biggest move has been to extend superstar Jose Ramirez, but their lineup and rotation remain largely unchanged. The Twins made relatively modest additions in Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers, while the White Sox have been very active this offseason with the additions of Munetaka Murakami, Austin Hays, and Seranthony Dominguez. Though the White Sox still have considerable room for improvement after finishing last season 60-102.

With those adjustments to the projections, the Royals now have the seventh-best odds to make the postseason in the American League. If the Royals need to battle for a wildcard spot, they will have a tough battle, particularly with the AL East teams, which currently have four teams with better projections than the Royals.

How have the offseason moves impacted the Royals’ outlook?

In 2025, the Royals’ offense produced 15.0 fWAR, ranking 22nd best in MLB. For 2026, Fangraphs projects the Royals to have 22.2 fWAR on offense, which would still rank only 20th. On the pitching side, the Royals finished 2025 with 17.5 fWAR (ninth best in MLB) and are projected to post 16.7 fWAR (11th best) in 2026. Combined, those projections have the Royals with the 15th most fWAR league-wide. This fWAR projection perfectly mirrors their current projected total of 81 wins and a 50% winning percentage. 

While the projections aren’t 100% accurate, they do provide useful insight into league-wide expectations. Given that the offense represented the clearest area for improvement, it’s worth looking into how the Royals’ offensive additions have impacted their outlook for 2026.

The most significant addition to the offense in the offseason, Isaac Collins, is projected to regress in his second big-league season. Last year, Collins slashed .263/.368/.411 with a 122 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR. The most optimistic projections have him slashing .245/.345/.384 with a 104 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR. Collins does not offer much upside for power, but he gets on base and shows strong plate discipline. His walk-rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and his chase rate grades in the 98th percentile. Even with his projected regression, an fWAR of 1.1 would place him tied for 5th-best fWAR in the Royals' 2025 offense. However, with the departure of Mike Yastrzemski, Collins’ arrival likely only replaces the production from Yastrzemski rather than improving on it.

The only free agent signing that is projected to make an impact at the major-league level is Lane Thomas. After a disappointing 2025 campaign that was plagued by injuries, Fangraphs projections have him bouncing back to around 0.5 to 0.9 fWAR. The Royals will certainly be banking on Thomas returning to his 2022-2024 production, where he was good for at least 1.4 fWAR each year and close to or above average in wRC+.

Even at positions with stability, the projections are underwhelming. With Vinnie Pasquantino at first base and the tandem of Salvador Perez and Carter Jensen at catcher, the Royals are projected to rank 21st and 18th in fWAR at first base and catcher, respectively.

The rankings in the outfield and at second base are even less encouraging. The Royals rank 23rd, 29th, and 23rd on projected fWAR in left, center, and right fields, respectively. They also rank 28th at projected fWAR at second base. The Royals have clearly indicated that they anticipate growth from Jac Caglianone and in right field, in addition to a bounce-back season from India at second. If these players are unable to meaningfully improve, there will be increased pressure on high performers Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia to carry the offensive burden for yet another season.

The Royals have not completely ignored second base this season after tendering India a contract worth $8 million in his last season before free agency. The Royals have signed a variety of middle infielders to minor league deals with invitations to spring training, signaling an openness to competition at second base. Veterans Abraham Toro, Peyton Wilson, Josh Rojas, Brandon Drury, Kevin Newman, and Connor Kaiser all will have the ability to challenge for this spot on the major league roster or even assume India’s starting role. Even if one or more of them show signs of a resurgence in Spring Training, the Royals’ outlook at second base will still be one of the lowest in the league.

Are there any players still available who could make an impact?

While the Tigers have addressed one of their needs in adding a strong partner, Tarik Skubal, at the top of their rotation, the Royals have largely bet on improvements from their current roster to raise their ceiling on offense. The Royals will likely need to make another addition on offense if they are serious about competing in 2026. With Spring Training starting, the available players who can make an impact are dwindling, but below are a couple of options.

Veteran outfielder Jesse Winker could be a potential option. His 2025 season was impacted by an oblique strain, but in 2024, he was in the 79th percentile in batting run value. His chase and walk rates were both in the 95th percentile, which is in line with trends seen in the acquisitions of Collins and Thomas. His speed and defense have declined over the years, but the Royals don’t currently have an everyday designated hitter. If he can return to full fitness, Winker could potentially make an impact on this offense. The Royals could pursue him in a low-risk move with a minor-league contract with an invitation to the major league camp.

Another option is veteran outfielder Mike Tauchman, who similarly has a low chase rate and strong on-base skills. While he does offer the power potential that Winker could, Tauchman’s ability to get on base is still well above average as he enters his age-35 season. In only 93 games played last season, he accumulated 1.4 fWAR and was still able to provide league-average defense in right field with 0 Outs Above Average. Like Winker, he could be another low-risk option with a minor-league contract with an invitation to the major league camp.

As the rest of the league’s rosters continue to shape out, there could be more opportunities to find upgrades in the trade market. With many teams still looking to find improvements to their starting rotation, the Royals should still be exploring trades that will improve their lineup.

While there is still time in Kansas City to make these types of moves, time is certainly running out. If they are unable to find meaningful improvements to the offense, there will continue to be uncertainty around the Royals' chances to make a push for the playoffs. Another season on the outside, looking in, could be a costly missed opportunity to compete during Bobby Witt Jr.’s prime years.

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[RCT]

Mike Tauchman makes a lot of sense.  Wish they would do it, one injury and he would need to play75% of games.  Another name for you to chew on, Starling Marte on a cheap deal. 

[Philip Ruo]

5 hours ago, RCT said:

Mike Tauchman makes a lot of sense.  Wish they would do it, one injury and he would need to play75% of games.  Another name for you to chew on, Starling Marte on a cheap deal. 

Marte is another good option in this class of players for sure. Him being right handed is a plus.