Why The Royals Should Sign Quirky Submariner Tyler Rogers

[Kerry Flanagan]

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

In 2002 (the first-year reliable data from Fangraphs is available), the average fastball velocity of all MLB pitchers was 89.0 mph. Driven by training enhancements, exercise science, scouting emphasis and changes in pitch design, it has consistently increased over the years. Last season, it stood at 94.0 mph. In an age where it has become axiomatic that higher velocity inevitably leads to success, Tyler Rogers stands out as a complete anomaly.  

Rogers’s pitches aren’t just slow. They are slowest. His rarely-thrown four-seam fastball is the lowest velocity four-seamer in the entire league at 83.2 mph. His sinker, which he threw nearly 75% of the time in 2025, came in at an average of 83.5 mph. He combines that sinker primarily with a slider that has the velocity of a slow curveball at 72.6 mph. For comparison, the average changeup in MLB in 2025 was 85.9 mph. Yes, the average changeup in 2025 was more than 3 mph faster than Rogers’s fastball.

Unlike his twin brother Taylor Rogers, a conventional throwing left-handed reliever currently with the Cincinnati Reds, Tyler has thrown from an ultra-low, submarine arm slot since high school, a style reminiscent of Royals team Hall of Famer Dan Quisenberry- but even lower. Rogers’s release point is just barely over six inches from the ground, almost certainly the lowest in baseball history. That throwing motion limits velocity but compensates with deception, movement and durability. The extreme low arm slot is far easier on fragile elbows and shoulders. Rogers has not spent one day on the injured list in his big-league career.

After being drafted in 2013 in the 10th round out of Austin Peay by the San Francisco Giants, Rogers, despite generally good numbers, toiled in the minors for seven plus seasons before debuting in 2019 at the age of 28 and finally becoming a bullpen mainstay for the Giants in 2021.

In recent years, ERA has fallen out of favor to FIP, which typically better predicts a pitcher’s future success than ERA by focusing on outcomes largely within their control such as strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In theory, if you miss bats, you will be more successful.

Rogers again, is a complete anomaly. He does one thing better than anyone else in MLB. He misses barrels and hard contact while not missing bats. His K% was just 16.1% in 2025. His career xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) over 424 IP is nearly a full run higher than his ERA (2.76 ERA/3.74 xFIP). In every season in which he has pitched over 28 innings, his xFIP has been significantly higher. He is able to be successful in spite of his inability to miss bats because of his extreme ground ball percent (62.1% in 2025), low HR/9 (career 0.59), low BB% (2.3% in 2025), low HardHit% (32.9 vs league avg 47.8%) and low WHIP (0.94 in 2025). Rogers’s 131 Stuff+ for his sinker in 2025 is elite. Remember, he throws that pitch nearly 75% of the time. He induced an average of 18.2 inches of arm-side run (99th percentile) on it and combines that with a -10.5 inch vertical break. Alternatively, the slider tunnels from the exact same release point, and look exactly the same from the hitter's viewpoint until about 15 feet from the plate when it moves in the opposite direction. He is simply the most effective pitcher in MLB who does NOT have swing-and-miss stuff. He does what modern sabermetricians say is not repeatable, and he’s done it for five straight seasons.

One of the ways a small market team can make up ground on the big guys like the Dodgers, who hand out massive long-term contracts like candy, is by building an elite bullpen. Bullpens are more important than ever with starting pitchers giving max effort for fewer innings per start than in the past. The 2014-2015 Royals are a prime example of how a dominant bullpen can be a difference maker for a small market team. Relievers are, by comparison to most other positions, cheaper. Rogers’s consensus projected contract is 2-3 years at 20-25 million ($8-9 million AAV).

The Royal’s bullpen is already in decent shape with a returning closer in Carlos Estevez, and high leverage swing man Lucas Erceg. John Schreiber returns along with lefty Angel Zerpa. While there are some intriguing options to round out the pen including Alex Lange and Luinder Avila, adding Rogers along with another lefty would greatly improve the length and strength of the pen. Rogers's splits for left-handed hitters vs right-handed hitters are remarkably similar. Although he is entering his 35-year-old season, his velocity independent history of success, and his remarkable durability alleviate concerns over his age. He is more likely than just about anyone to be pitching effectively late into his 30s. If Rogers is able to repeat his 2025 WAR of 1.3, it would amount to a considerable bargain. For the cost-conscious Royals, this is a no-brainer.

View full article

[Kevin O'Brien]

Great piece, Kerry, I would be curious about this fit, for as you said, his ability to limit barrels and hard contact cannot be ignored. I know the Royals have valued control and command guys over the past couple of years when it comes to relief acquisitions and they have had some hits (Schreiber, Clarke 2.0, Long 1.0) and some misses (Long 2.0, Smith, Stratton). I am open to Rogers joining the bullpen as long as we get some high velocity arms as well, since K/9 was such an issue for this bullpen a season ago.