Kevin O'Brien

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Last offseason, the Royals made a bold move to improve the top of their lineup. They traded starting pitcher Brady Singer, who was coming off a 3.71 ERA and 2.5 fWAR season in 179.2 IP, to the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year was coming off one of his best seasons with the Reds. He hit 15 home runs, stole 13 bases, posted a 109 wRC+, and accumulated 2.9 fWAR in 637 plate appearances. His fWAR was the second-best mark of his career, after his 3.4 fWAR rookie campaign in 2021. With plenty of starting pitching depth (at the time), India made sense, especially considering Royals leadoff hitters posted a 67 wRC+ in 2024, the worst mark in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Unfortunately, the acquisition didn't quite work out as hoped for Kansas City last season. In 136 games and 567 plate appearances, the 28-year-old Royals infielder saw significant regressions in nearly every category. His home run total fell to nine, and he didn't steal a single base. His wRC+ was 89 and his fWAR was -0.3, both career-worsts. Lastly, India was a defensive disaster, as Kansas City initially tried to use him as a utility player who could rotate among second base, third base, and left field. The experiment failed miserably, as he accumulated a -13 OAA, according to Savant. Thus, the Royals are in a dilemma with India this offseason. He will be entering his last year of team control, and he is coming off a season in which he made $4.4 million in AAV under a two-year deal with the Reds he signed before the 2024 season, according to Spotrac. MLB Trade Rumors projects that India is to command around $7.4 million in their last arbitration projections. Will the Royals agree to something in that range with India after the season he just had? Let's take a look at what value India offers, and whether or not Royals GM JJ Picollo will pull the trigger on bringing India back for one final season in Kansas City. Without a doubt, India will be the most high-profile arbitration-eligible player for the Royals this offseason. On one hand, he is coming off an incredibly disappointing and underwhelming 2024 campaign. At the same time, a variety of factors seemed to affect his performance. Anne Rogers, the Royals' MLB.com writer, pointed that out in her latest newsletter, hinting that the Royals may bring him back, given a variety of issues out of his control that plagued him in 2025. When looking at his Statcast metrics from 2025, via TJ Stats, it's evident that India didn't have the same "pop" on batted balls in Kansas City as he did in 2024 with the Reds. At the same time, he still showcased the solid plate discipline that made him such an intriguing trade target at the time. India's barrel, hard-hit rate, and LA Sweet-Spot% all ranked below the 30th percentile. Conversely, he ranked in the 96th percentile in O-Swing%, 78th percentile in whiff rate, 79th percentile in Z-Contact%, and 68th percentile in walk rate. He also pulled the ball well with the Royals, especially in the air, as his Pull Air% ranked in the 63rd percentile. Now, let's take a look at what he did in 2024 with the Reds. The hard-hit rate pretty much was the same, as was the O-Swing%. However, his barrel rate was slightly better in 2024 as was his O-Swing%, whiff%, and Z-Contact%. The most significant differences were his LA Sweet-Spot% and walk percentage, both of which were tremendously different from his initial season in Kansas City. A positive trend India saw in 2025 was that he pulled the ball better than he did in 2024. His Pull Air% was 2.3% better last year than two seasons ago. Thus, it seemed like India was reading pitches effectively but just not generating the right swings to produce consistent base hits (which is likely due to the 6.2% decrease in LA Sweet-Spot%). One has to wonder whether the injuries played a part in those lackluster batted-ball metrics, and his drop-off in xwOBA in his rolling chart via Savant around the 350th plate appearance suggests something ailed him that wasn't present earlier in the season. The encouraging aspect of India's outlook for 2026 is that the Royals no longer need him to be the leadoff hitter. After failing to gain hold of the spot in 2024, Maikel Garcia broke out in 2025 with 16 home runs, a 121 wRC+, and a 5.6 fWAR. The Venezuelan infielder not only was a Gold Glove finalist, but also named a Silver Slugger finalist, showing his improvement from his disappointing 2024 campaign (71 wRC+; 1.2 fWAR). As a leadoff hitter last season (which was primarily against left-handed starting pitchers), the Royals' third baseman hit .341 with a 143 wRC+ and 1.00 BB/K ratio. If the Royals bring back Mike Yastrzemski, he could also slide into the leadoff spot, as he posted a 143 wRC+ and 0.69 BB/K ratio as a leadoff hitter. He definitely helped boost a Royals team that finished 28-25 in the last two months of the season. Yastrzemski will be a free agent, but it sounds like the Royals are highly interested in bringing him back. The outfielder hit nine home runs and posted a 127 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances with Kansas City after being acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the Trade Deadline. The primary dilemma the Royals may face with India's return is his defensive position and their outlook on Michael Massey, who is also coming off an underwhelming, injury-plagued campaign that limited him to only 77 games in 2025. After hitting 14 home runs and posting a 104 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in 356 plate appearances in 2024, Massey only hit three home runs and posted a 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 277 plate appearances. Like India, the 27-year-old infielder shows a strong propensity for contact, but his power and walk metrics were significantly worse than India's, according to TJ Stats. Massey will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and he is expected to command significantly less than India. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to command about $2 million this offseason. Not only is that a bargain compared to India, but he was also much better defensively, despite the injuries. Last season, the Royals employed Massey in second and left field, and he produced a +2 OAA at those two positions combined. Thus, he was 15 outs better than India last year, and over the past two seasons, Massey has accumulated a +5 OAA in second and left field. Therefore, Massey provides the defensive versatility the Royals need and wouldn't get with India. Suppose Massey can rebound offensively and get back to that 14-15 HR profile with a 100+ wRC+ in 2026. In that case, Kansas City may be tempted to move on from India and let Massey handle responsibilities at the keystone regularly and in left field, when needed. That could also free up additional money to use on free agency this offseason, allowing the Royals to spend more on a free-agent outfielder, a priority for 2026. View full article

Interesting idea. If I recall, they may have kicked the tires on Roki last offseason but were nowhere close. Still, it seems like JJ Picollo is a lot more open to the Japanese and Korean markets than Dayton Moore.