Is Blake Mitchell Getting Underestimated by Royals Fans?

The Kansas City Royals' farm system has always been a polarizing one over the past five seasons, especially after the graduations of top prospects like Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia. While Kansas City has seen many homegrown products receive regular playing time at the MLB level (according to Roster Resource, the Royals have 19 homegrown players on their 40-man roster), it has struggled to rank highly in farm system rankings from most major publications.

Fangraphs has the Royals ranked 28th in their farm system rankings, which assign dollar values to prospects based on their future value (FV) rankings. Furthermore, Kansas City ranked 25th in MLB Pipeline's midseason rankings last season and 26th in USA Today's 2026 Farm System rankings. Thus, based on these rankings, it's easy for Royals fans to become pessimistic about this system, as was the case in a recent Royals Review article.

Probably one of the most polarizing prospects in the Royals' system is Blake Mitchell, the Royals' 2023 first-round pick who went 8th overall. Mitchell and the Royals received a lot of heat in that draft, especially since the prep catcher from Texas was drafted ahead of infielder Matt Shaw and catcher Kyle Teel, college prospects who had more buzz among Royals fans at the time. To be fair, Shaw and Teel have been able to show some success at the MLB level already, while Mitchell has not advanced beyond High-A ball yet in his career. 

That said, it seems like some Royals fans are ready to identify Mitchell as a bust at 21-years-old. Here's a snippet from Review's piece that implied that, along with other former Royals first-round picks.

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Since 2020, Royals first round draft picks have lost huge portions of their trade value (Asa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato, Gavin Cross, Blake Mitchell), haven’t played an inning yet of pro ball (Sean Gamble, Josh Hammond), or made it to to the big leagues and have flopped hard (Jac Caglianone). Meanwhile, key high-upside draft picks in the second or third round have also lost significant value after their draft (Blake Wolters, Ben Kudrna, Hiro Wyatt).

I understand where Matthew Lamar (who wrote the article) is coming from with the comments about Lacy, Mozzicato, and Cross, though I think more context is needed.

Lacy has been a bust for injury reasons (though many first-round picks in that 2020 MLB Draft have NOT fared well either), Mozzicato wasn't a pure first-round pick, but an under-slot selection that allowed them to draft Kudrna and Carter Jensen, who is now a top a prospect in the Royals system and had a sensational MLB debut (arguably better than Teel's). Cross hasn't been great, but he's had some weird health issues (he got Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever in 2023), and he was the last pick of not just the Dayton Moore era, but also of Lonnie Goldberg, who was the scouting director at the time. Brian Bridges has been in charge of the draft since 2024, and the results have been much better over the past two years (Danny Ontiveros was in charge for one year, which is the Mitchell draft). 

I agree that Lacy, Mozzicato, and Cross have lost some trade value, though I question how much they ever had to begin with, considering their circumstances. Conversely, I don't believe that statement applies to Mitchell, who I think hasn't lost much, if any of his trade value. Furthermore, he may still be a top prospect not just in the Royals system, but in baseball. 

And yet, Royals fans don't seem to view him that way. In this post, I am going to look at why fans have that perspective, the concerns with Mitchell's outlook, and why people should be more bullish about his projection, not just in this upcoming season but beyond. 

Why Royals Fans Aren't High on Mitchell

When it comes to many Royals fans' feelings about Mitchell, I do think a lot of it has less to do with the 21-year-old catcher and more to do with who the Royals did NOT select in the draft.

In 2023, the Royals were in the midst of a brutal season in JJ Picollo's first year as GM and Matt Quatraro's first year as manager. They were 26-65 at the All-Star Break, and many fans were hoping that Kansas City would select someone who could move quickly in the farm system and matriculate to the Majors in two to three years. Shaw and Teel fit that bill, while Mitchell did not. That said, Mitchell was still seen as a prospect with some unique upside, as talked about on draft night. 

As mentioned in the video above, prep catchers have a poor reputation in the draft, especially those who are selected in the first round. That said, Mitchell profiles as more athletic than the typical high school catching prospect, and LSU head coach Jay Johnson, who recruited Mitchell to LSU, recognized that and talked about his ability to move to the mound if necessary, due to his solid throwing ability.

Still, the reputation of high school catchers in the draft and the Royals' decision not to pick Shaw or Teel seemed to color Royals fans' opinions of Mitchell from day one, even as he has shown progress as he has moved up in the system.

In 2024 with the Low-A Columbia Fireflies, he posted an .815 OPS and hit 18 home runs in 466 plate appearances. Last year in Quad Cities (High-A), despite breaking his hamate bone in Spring Training and missing a good chunk of the Minor League season, he still posted a .372 OBP, 20.8% BB%, and 103 wRC+ in  216 plate appearances. The power wasn't quite there (.089 ISO), but he showed a mature eye at the plate for a 20-year-old. 

It also doesn't help that Mitchell is overshadowed by Jensen, especially after Jensen's phenomenal 2025 campaign that saw him debut with the Royals in September. That said, as noted by Tobey Schulman of Inside the Diamond and Just Baseball, Mitchell's skills shouldn't be slept on.

Has Mitchell been phenomenal since debuting professionally? Not quite. However, he's been good and seems to get grief for what he's NOT (i.e., Shaw or Teel) than for what he is, which is still a very good prospect ranked as the 10th-best catching prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline.

What Are the Legitimate Concerns with Mitchell?

Now, I am not saying Mitchell is a Jensen-level prospect just yet. While Jensen and Mitchell both struck out and walked a lot as prospects, Jensen's strikeout rates have always been more tolerable than Mitchell's.

In his first exposure in High-A in 2023, he sported a 24.1% K rate, 0.77 BB/K ratio, and 76.5% contact rate. When he started the year in 2024 with Quad Cities, he had a 22.1% K rate, a 0.69 BB/K ratio, and a 74.2% contact rate. As for Mitchell in Quad Cities last year, he had a 32.9% K rate, 0.63 BB/K ratio, and 66.9% contact rate. Thus, Mitchell's K rate has been, on average, 10% higher than Jensen's in the Quad Cities, and his contact rate has been nearly 10% lower. 

It's one thing to have a sub-80 percent contact rate in the Minors, which was the case for Jensen. He had the discipline and power to make up for that mediocre tool. Conversely, a sub-70 percent contact rate, the case for Mitchell, is alarming and could prevent him from reaching his true ceiling as a player.

In the Arizona Fall League, Mitchell had a nice bounce-back campaign, seemingly fully healthy. He didn't hit for average (.234), but he had an excellent OBP (.434), and he seemed more comfortable at the plate as he got more at-bats in Arizona. That culminated in him becoming a key player on the AFL Champion Surprise Saguaros. 

That said, the contact rate, especially on pitches in the strike zone (Z-Contact%), was still lackluster in the AFL this fall, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary. 

Mitchell's Z-Contact% ranked in the ninth percentile, his whiff rate ranked in the 10th percentile, and his K rate ranked in the 28th percentile. On the flip side, he pulled the ball well (95th percentile), barreled the ball effectively (72nd percentile), and posted an xwOBA (74th percentile) that looked much better than his actual wOBA (50th percentile). With more at-bats and games, Mitchell's stat line could've been even better. 

Still, the struggles in contact should be worth watching in 2026 with Mitchell.

On a positive note, MJ Melendez showed even worse contact issues in the lower levels as a catching prospect out of high school. In Low-A Lexington in 2018, he had a 62.4% contact rate. In 2019, in High-A Wilmington, it was even worse at 55.2%. However, with some help from the Royals hitting development team (then led by Alec Zumwalt), he improved his contact rate to 73.6% in Double-A in 2021 (remember, there was no Minor League ball in 2020 due to COVID). 

There's no reason to think that Mitchell could see the same kind of improvement, especially with the recent shuffling in hitting coordinators this winter. Furthermore, Mitchell has a lot more upside than Melendez, especially on the defensive end. 

Will Swinging More Help Mitchell in 2026 and Beyond?

One of the positive developments to see from Mitchell in the AFL was his 74 percent Z-Swing%, which ranked in the 86th percentile. He has long been known for his solid plate discipline, and he showed that in Arizona with a 15.8% O-Swing%, which ranked in the 89th percentile, according to Statcast data. However, one critique of his approach at the plate as a prospect has been his passivity.

Last year, in Quad Cities, he had a 49.5% F-Strike% and 29.4% CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rate. He also only had a 41.2% swing rate, which was 1.3% lower than his mark in Low-A Columbia. Surprisingly, Jensen and Melendez also had similar passive approaches in High-A ball, as seen in the table below. 

The big difference is that Jensen had much better contact skills than both Mitchell and Melendez. However, Mitchell's F-Strike% and Swing% data were nearly identical to Jensen's metrics in 2023 and 2024 with the River Bandits. For context, let's look at Jensen's metrics at the MLB level in his September debut to get a sense of what Mitchell could become if his contact ability sees slight improvement. 

 Jensen still whiffed a good amount in his MLB debut in 2025 (47th percentile Whiff%). However, he didn't chase (74th percentile), and he was aggressive on pitches in the zone. Those two skills helped amplify his natural power, as demonstrated by his hard-hit% (100th percentile), LA Sweet-Spot% (97th percentile), and Barrel% (98th percentile). Mitchell's launch may need work (26th percentile in the AFL), but his other power metrics from the AFL mirror what Jensen did with the Royals last September. 

Thus, I would like to see Mitchell continue to transition that selectively aggressive approach from the AFL to High-A and/or Double-A ball in 2026. A little drop in that F-Strike percentage could help him get into better, more hitter-friendly counts, which, in turn, could boost his overall production, especially in the power department. 

Mitchell is not Jensen 2.0, but their paths up to High-A ball have been similar. That should make Royals fans optimistic that not only could he be a viable option at the MLB level for the Royals in a couple of years, but he could help them forget that draft day disappointment from 2023 that has dogged Mitchell for his entire professional career thus far. 

Interested in learning more about the Kansas City Royals' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!