Why Did the Royals Pick Up Craig Kimbrel?

There's no question that the Royals bullpen needs help right now.

According to Frangraphs, Kansas City relievers rank near the bottom in most major categories. The Royals bullpen ranks 29th in reliever ERA, 30th in reliever WHIP, 28th in BB/9 and H/9, 27th in K/9, and 30th in HR/9.

During this 3-3 homestand, the bullpen went through its fair share of issues.

On Wednesday against the Twins, Aaron Bummer and Nate Pearson failed to hold onto the lead in the eighth inning, leading to a 4-3 loss and a chance at the sweep. On Sunday, in the rubber game against the Cubs, Easton McGee, formerly of the Brewers, gave up six runs on five hits and two walks in two innings of relief. A 4-2 Chicago lead ballooned to 10-2 by the seventh, ending any shot of the Royals making a comeback in the weekend series finale.

The names are different, but the results have typically been the same, unfortunately. That said, fans can't say that Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo isn't trying to improve the bullpen, even with the Royals 21 games below .500 and sitting in last place in the AL Central. Even after the Trade Deadline passed, Kansas City has been making moves on many waived pitchers, hoping to see if they can find someone who can be part of the Royals' bullpen in 2027 and beyond.

After Sunday's loss, Picollo and the Royals added another candidate to help turn around the Royals' bullpen struggles: nine-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel.

Kimbrel has pitched for the Mets and Rays this season, accumulating 33 appearances and 33.2 IP with both teams. In that sample, he posted a 4.81 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.31 FIP, and 11.1% K-BB%. The 38-year-old most recently pitched with the Rays, posting a 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 3.90 FIP in 19 appearances and 18.2 IP. He was designated for assignment after the Trade Deadline and elected free agency after being outrighted to Triple-A Durham.

Even though Kimbrel has 440 career saves, he hasn't collected a save over the past two years. He last held a closer role in Baltimore in 2024, saving 23 games but posting a 5.33 ERA over 52.1 IP. 

It's unclear what kind of role Kimbrel will have in Kansas City. That said, he will likely get some high-leverage work, especially with the Royals thin on guys who can handle big spots in the 8th and 9th innings. 

That said, the Royals aren't going anywhere this year, and it's unlikely that Kimbrel will be in Kansas City beyond this season. So why, during an impromptu evaluation season, would Picollo pick up a veteran like Kimbrel, who is in the twilight years of his illustrious career? 

First off, Kimbrel brings the Royals a profile that they sorely need in terms of pitch quality. Second, he could give the Royals an idea of what they need to do this offseason to rebuild their bullpen in 2027.

Despite Mediocre Numbers, Kimbrel Still Has the Stuff

Kimbrel's overall numbers are nothing to shout home about, though his rough 15-inning sample with the Mets earlier this year has brought down his overall line (he had a 6.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in Queens).

When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast percentiles, he struggled to produce CSW and allowed too many walks this year with the Mets and Rays. However, the extension, TJ Stuff+, and batted-ball metrics were encouraging and probably explain why Picollo and the Royals decided to take a flier on Kimbrel for the remainder of the season. 

Here's a look at his Statcast percentile via TJ Stats.

Kimbrel sports four offerings this year with TJ Stuff+ marks over 100. That includes his four-seamer (109), his sweeper (111), his knuckle curve (108), and his sinker (101). Only his changeup was below the 100 TJ Stuff+ threshold (99).

As a result, his overall TJ Stuff+ is 109, which ranks in the 91st percentile. For context, that 109 overall TJ Stuff+ would be the best mark of any Royals pitcher this year. According to TJ Stats' TJ Stuff+ leaderboard, Nate Pearson currently has the best TJ Stuff+ at 107, Steven Cruz ranks second at 105, and Nick Mears and Cole Ragans are tied for third at 104. 

Thus, in addition to experience, Kimbrel brings the kind of high-octane arm that the Royals bullpen needs for this stretch run of the 2026 season.

Royals Picking Up Similar Arms to Kimbrel

The Royals have seemed to be targeting pitchers on waivers recently who possess big-stuff numbers. Two examples of this are lefty Luke Little, who was picked up on waivers from the Cubs, and Carlos Duran, who was acquired from the Dodgers for Kris Bubic at the Trade Deadline.

Little has limited MLB experience, having pitched only 1 inning this year with the Cubs. However, his TJ Stuff+ numbers have been impressive, though the rest of his Stacast profile leaves a bit to be desired, as illustrated below.

The 28-year-old lefty had pitched 36.1 innings at the Major League level in his career, with most of his MLB experience coming in 2024 when he posted a 3.46 ERA in 26.1 IP. Unfortunately, injuries and inconsistency have limited him to Minor League competition over the past two years, despite his being a sweeper with wicked movement.

Little has produced a 6.29 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 48.2 IP in Triple-A Des Moines this season. He has struggled with walks (12th percentile BB%) as well as generating chase (27th percentile O-Swing%) and finding the strike zone (35th percentile zone rate). That said, his sinker and sweeper had TJ Stuff+ marks of 103 and 108, respectively, and his overall TJ Stuff+ was 104 in Triple-A, ranking in the 89th percentile. Add that with a 99th percentile extension, and it's easy to see why the Cubs drafted Little in the fourth round in the 2020 MLB Draft out of San Jacinto College North.

As for Duran, I talked about him a little bit on Trade Deadline day, but he's a big arm that shares a lot with Steven Cruz, who has thrived this year after a slow start. Like Cruz, there are some walk and control issues, but the TJ Stuff+ metrics from the former Dodgers and Athletics reliever are legit.

While Little and Duran don't have the pedigree of Kimbrel, they do share similar profiles to the former All-Star in terms of Stuff. That shows the Royals are willing to take risks on arms with control issues as long as they have the Stuff and pitch extension. Kimbrel, Little, and Duran all rank highly in those two traits, and that could help the Royals identify not just successful relievers but also ones who won't cost too much.

Can Kimbrel's Success Give the Royals A Bullpen Blueprint This Offseason?

The Royals bullpen has been atrocious this year. However, many of those struggles have been tied to the Royals' lack of a consistent closer in the ninth inning this year.

Kansas City had someone initially slotted into the role: Carlos Estevez, who led all of baseball in saves a year ago.

Estevez was expected to be another rock in the Royals bullpen in 2026. Unfortunately, his velocity vanished, and he has been plagued by arm issues that have kept him on the IL since his disastrous Opening Day weekend appearance in Atlanta. It's unlikely Estevez will pitch again this season (perhaps in his career).

Kimbrel will not be a closer for Kansas City in 2027, barring something really surprising. However, if Kimbrel can step into the closer's role for the Royals and find some success, then the rest of the bullpen may benefit as well. Last year, with Estevez as the closer, the other Royals relievers thrived in their clear, secondary roles.

The Royals bullpen posted a 3.63 ERA as a group in 2025, the seventh-best mark in baseball, according to Fangraphs. And that was with a group that was very similar to this year's bullpen as well. 

If the veteran closer can have success for two months in the closer's role, the other relievers in the Royals organization may find success in lower-leverage opportunities.

Instead of being depended upon as closers, Pearson and Cruz can develop as setup men, which may better suit them anyway. Instead of a 7th- or 8th-inning guy, Erceg can be a middle reliever and work on his pitch quality to help him generate whiff and chase again (like in 2024). The Royals can throw other high-octane guys in the mix in the middle innings or in mop-up roles, which is easier to do in lower-leverage situations. 

Kimbrel finding success could give the Royals the motivation they need to acquire and pay for a legitimate closer this offseason, which would put less pressure on them to build the bullpen as a whole. It's hard to find and develop a closer in one's organization. However, to find and develop middle relievers or setup men? That's an easier and more realistic task, and the Royals have had some success with that during the JJ Picollo era.

Thus, while it seems odd for the Royals to bring in Kimbrel now, it does allow them to shuffle relievers while still staying competitive and not throwing these "green" relievers into the fire too quickly. Royals fans have seen young relievers thrown into closer roles too soon, not just fail in the role but plummet overall after the experience. Carlos Hernandez and James McArthur are two prime examples. They could've had more long-term success if they hadn't been thrust into high-leverage situations so quickly.

I'm guessing Picollo and the Royals don't want to make that mistake with Pearson, Cruz, Duran, and Little. Let them get opportunities in various situations and prove they can take on the role in spot opportunities both this year and next.

For now, however, the Royals need stability in the ninth.

This year, it's going to be Kimbrel.

Next year, let's hope it's a bigger-name closer. Raisel Iglesias could be a nice free-agent option, and Mason Miller of the Padres and Trevor Megill of the Brewers could be acquired via a trade. 

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