What Do the Royals Do in the Wake of the Ragans and Estevez Injuries?

Monday, May 6th, was not exactly a memorable day for the Kansas City Royals.

First off, the Royals lost 3-1 to the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium, snapping a five-game winning streak (and losing a chance to surpass the Guardians in the AL Central standings). Second, it was revealed that Hawaiian Bros, the Hawaiian Plate Lunch restaurant, would rescind their "free" plate meal if the Royals scored six or more runs and instead replace it with a BOGO (buy one get one free) deal. Safe to say, Royals fans weren't happy, especially after receiving so many free meals during the Royals' winning streak.

Lastly, the Royals saw two key pitchers from the 2025 squad go down to injury on the same day, albeit at different levels.

During a rehab stint in Omaha, Carlos Estevez, who hadn't pitched since his lone outing in Atlanta during Opening Weekend, left his rehab outing after just 0.2 innings. According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, not only was his velocity down, but he was dealing with shoulder soreness as well.

When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary from Estevez's rehab outing, it was a similar trend to what fans saw from Estevez in Spring Training and his first (and only) outing of the 2026 MLB season. Poor velocity and TJ Stuff+, as well as lackluster zone, chase, and whiff rates.

Estevez's average four-seam velocity was only 90 MPH, and his TJ Stuff+ was 90 with a 38 grade. Overall, he had a 92 overall TJ Stuff+ as well as a 35.7% zone rate, 22.2% chase, and 20% whiff rate. Safe to say, things had not gotten better for Estevez after the time off on the IL. 

If Estevez's injury issue wasn't enough, Royals Opening Day starter Cole Ragans exited Wednesday night's game after three innings pitched and just 58 pitches. According to Rogers, Ragans was feeling tightness in his elbow and forearm.

Ragans seemed to be cruising in the first inning in terms of velocity, touching 98 MPH at points early in his start. However, by the third inning, his overall velocity had plummeted, a big red flag for manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals' coaching staff. Royals fans can see the concerning, plummeting trend in his pitch-velocity chart from Wednesday's game.

As a result, both Ragans and Estevez underwent tests on Thursday while the Royals closed out the series against the Guardians (which they lost 8-5). During the press conference, manager Matt Quatraro gave some updates about the results on Ragans and Estevez.

The news isn't great for either pitcher, though Ragans' news seems more optimistic, initially, since he won't be immediately shut down (unlike Estevez). That said, the typical return time for pitchers who get VEO is 6-9 weeks, so Ragans may see a lot of time on the IL, much like a season ago. 

With Ragans and Estevez out, the Royals find themselves in a bit of a dilemma regarding their pitching depth, which was initially seen as a strength in the preseason. Thus, let's break down what Kansas City could do to replace both pitchers, and what could be on the horizon trade-wise for the Royals if Ragans and Estevez remain on the IL for a considerable amount of time.

Expect Kolek and Falter to Replace Ragans in the Rotation

Much like a season ago, Ragans has not exactly been consistent for the Royals, but he hasn't been bad either.

In 35.1 IP, the lefty has a 4.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 6.23 WHIP. He also has a 15.2% BB% and 14.6% K-BB%. Conversely, his K% is high at 29.8%, and his whiff rate and TJ Stuff+ marks have also been solid as well, as illustrated in his TJ Stuff+ summary below.

Thus, the Royals will miss Ragans' excellent stuff profile and ability to make hitters swing and miss. His absence is especially hard since there aren't many options with that profile in Omaha.

While the Storm Chasers don't have a starting pitcher that can replace Ragans' ability to make batters whiff, they do have a couple of options who could eat innings and keep the Royals competitive in games, which Ragans struggled to do at times in starts, especially on the road. Those two pitchers are Stephen Kolek and Bailey Falter.

Kolek has already gotten a chance to show he can belong at the MLB level, as he made the start on Tuesday for Noah Cameron, who was dealing with a lower back injury. Kolek, who started the year in Omaha due to an injury suffered in Spring Training, had a solid 2026 debut.

In six innings pitched, he allowed three runs on four hits and no walks while striking out three. He didn't generate many whiffs (only two total), and he wasn't overpowering the Guardians with his stuff. However, he was efficient in finding the strike zone and limiting hard contact, which is evident in his TJ Stuff+ summary.

Kolek was optioned to Omaha after his start in order for the Royals to have an extra arm in the bullpen with no days off until next Monday. However, if Ragans hits the IL, Kolek could easily be recalled, since the 15-day option "stay" doesn't count in injury situations.

If the Royals want to give Kolek more time in Omaha, or if they need to replace Ragans AND Cameron, then another option to fill the rotation would be Falter.

Acquired from Pittsburgh at the Trade Deadline last year, Falter produced an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in 12.1 IP with the Royals last season. He struggled with command in Kansas City, as illustrated by 6.6% K-BB% and 15.4% HR/FB%. He ended up being shut down at the end of the year and put on the IL in late August due to a left bicep contusion.

After posting a 13.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 10% K-BB%, and 25% HR/FB% in two outings and 3.1 IP with the Royals this season, Falter landed on the IL due to left elbow inflammation. However, he's been on a rehab stint in Omaha recently, and his results in Triple-A have been encouraging.

Falter is sporting decent stuff with an overall TJ Stuff+ of 100 and a 104 TJStuff+ on his four-seamer. His four-seamer has been his most effective offering in Omaha, as illustrated by its 59.5% zone rate, 46.7% chase rate, 35.6% whiff rate, and .335 xwOBACON. Overall, he has a 51.4% zone rate, 28.4% chase rate, 31.8% whiff rate, and .347 xwOBACON. 

Thus, the 29-year-old lefty seems healthy, and he could be ready to return, not just to the bullpen, but perhaps the starting rotation as well, especially if Ragans and Cameron should miss a considerable amount of time on the IL. 

Falter doesn't have elite fastball velocity, as his four-seamer averaged just 92.6 MPH in the Major Leagues this year. However, he does sport elite extension and a much better ability to make hitters swing and miss this season. 

Thus, he could be the most logical replacement for Ragans at this time.

The Internal Replacements for Estevez in the Bullpen Could Be Trickier

As expected after the Kolek start, the Royals called up Eric Cerantola to make his MLB debut. 

Ceranotla's outing on Wednesday was solid, especially for a debut. In one inning of work, he allowed no runs on one hit and one walk while striking out two. He was able to locate the slider effectively on Wednesday and generate some impressive wiffs.

Unfortunately, on Thursday, it was a bit of a 180 for Cerantola. 

In 2 IP, the Canadian-born righty allowed three runs on one hit and three walks while striking out three. Cerantola struggled to locate on Thursday, and the Guardians made him pay, with a Bo Naylor home run being the primary highlight. 

When looking at his TJ Stuff+ profile, Cerantola is an intriguing pitcher with a changeup that rates incredibly well, especially in terms of whiff rate and TJ Stuff+. Unfortunately, his four-seamer profiles poorly, and it's the only other pitch he has in his arsenal beyond his slider.

Thus, it will be interesting to see if Cerantola could add another pitch to his arsenal in order to make him harder to hit. The slider profiles well with a 104 TJ Stuff+ and 80% whiff rate. That said, the four-seamer has an 88 TJ Stuff+, a 40% zone rate, and zero percent whiff rate at the Major League level so far.

Beyond Cerantola, there are not a ton of options right now in the bullpen for Omaha.

Mason Black was just recently optioned to Triple-A, but he showed flashes of being a solid MLB reliever. In 4.2 IP, he posted a 0.00 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 2.29 FIP, and 13.6% K-BB%. Unfortunately, while the results are good, Black didn't have eye-popping stuff or produce great metrics, as evidenced by his TJ Stuff+ summary below.

Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see Black return to the Royals later in the year, especially if he can gain more confidence on the mound after his short cup of coffee.

Other options on the 40-man roster who have MLB experience are Eli Morgan and Steven Cruz, who both had mixed stints in their initial call-ups with the Royals this year. Morgan had a 2.61 ERA with the Royals in seven outings and 10.1 IP and also had a save. However, his FIP was much worse at 5.65, and his lackluster 6.7% K-BB% didn't inspire much confidence that he would continue to be a sub-three ERA reliever either. 

As for Cruz, he may have one of the best fastballs in the organization. His four-seamer averaged 96.7 MPH and had a 110 TJ Stuff+, 33.3% chase, and 34.4% whiff rate.

Unfortunately, his control struggled in the Majors, and there were concerns that he tipped pitches to opposing hitters. As a result of these two items, he posted a 14.40 ERA and 50% HR/FB% with the Royals before being optioned to Omaha again.

Another possible internal option for the Royals could be Beck Way, who has a 4.64 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 21.1 IP. While those numbers aren't great, his 2.12 FIP is much better, and he also has a 33.7% K% and 25% K-BB%. Way also has a great TJ Stuff+ profile, with three of his four pitches having TJ Stuff+ marks of 100 or higher. 

A former Yankees prospect who came over to Kansas City from the Bronx with Chandler Champlain and T.J. Sikkema in the Andrew Benintendi trade in 2022, Way has been eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for a couple of years, but hasn't been selected. If this keeps up, Way could earn a spot in the Royals bullpen, especially if Estevez lands on the 60-Day IL (which feels likely).

What Else Could the Royals Do?

The Royals will likely be active in the trade market soon, possibly a bit earlier than the MLB Trade Deadline in late July. If there's one positive aspect of JJ Picollo as president of baseball operations for the Royals, it's that he isn't afraid to make a deal as soon as possible.

One target for the Royals to at least boost their pitching staff could be Colorado's Antonio Senzatela, who's having a nice bounce-back year under new Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer and GM Paul DePodesta. In 24.1 IP, Senzatela has a 1.81 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and 2.20 FIP. He also has a 24.4% K% and 16.7% K-BB%. When looking at his TJ Stuff+ summary, his profile appears very similar to Estevez's, who, ironically, was also a former Rockies reliever. 

Senzatela's four-seamer averages 97.2 MPH, but it's a bit of a straight offering, as it only has a 100 TJ Stuff+. That said, he's been successful with it, as evidenced by a 46% chase and 32.9% whiff rate on the pitch. Overall, Senzatela has a 51.3% zone rate, 34.2% chase, 26% whiff, and .337 xwOBACON. That profile could play, especially in a setup role (Lucas Erceg has established himself as the Royals' closer in Estevez's absence). 

Granted, it's too early for the Rockies and Royals to come to an agreement. The Rockies' 15-23 record isn't that much worse than the Royals' 17-21 record right now. However, the Royals and Rockies have been trade partners in the past, and former Colorado pitchers have found success in Kansas City, with Estevez and Jeremy Guthrie being the prime examples.

The bullpen needs more outside help (right now) than the rotation. Thus, Senzatela could be the reinforcement needed to solidify this group with Estevez out for an extended period.