What Are the Options for Lucas Erceg?

 On Tuesday, before their 4-3 walk-off win against the Athletics, the Kansas City Royals optioned reliever Lucas Erceg to Omaha and promoted newly acquired pitcher Carlos Duran.

Monday night's outing against the Athletics seemed to be the final straw for the struggling 31-year-old righty. 

Against his former team, Erceg failed to record an out and gave up a run on a hit and two walks. He threw only 14 pitches and posted a strike rate of just 42.9%. In addition to a disastrous line, his TJ Stuff+ was mediocre, and his zone, chase, whiff, and xwOBA metrics weren't good either, as illustrated below in his TJ Stuff+ summary from Monday's outing.

Not only was Erceg's overall TJ Stuff+ subpar (98), but he also rated particularly poorly in chase rate (12.5%), whiff rate (0.0%), and xwOBACON (.514). Producing this in a five-run game at the time against one of the worst teams in baseball is not an encouraging development, and the Royals were left with no choice but to option Erceg, who's struggled immensely this year.

After his latest performance, Erceg has a 6.23 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 43.1 IP. For context, he had a 2.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 61.1 IP in 2025 and produced a 3.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 61.2 IP in 2024. When looking at his Statcast percentiles from this season and his breakout campaign in 2024, it's wild to see how far Erceg has regressed in so many key categories, including wOBA, xwOBA, CSW%, and K rate, just to name a few. 

Erceg will be entering his first year of arbitration this offseason, and even after this year, he will have two Minor League options remaining. Thus, the Royals have a few options they could pursue with the right-handed reliever, who is looking to put his 2026 season behind him.

Let's look at those three options, why they make sense for the Royals, and the possible drawbacks of each path for Erceg in 2027. 

Non-Tender Erceg

One option the Royals could take with Erceg is to non-tender him this offseason, as he will enter his first season of arbitration eligibility. 

They non-tendered Taylor Clarke last offseason (who has been better this year than Erceg) and, considering the volatility with relievers, the Royals may just decide to free up Erceg's roster spot and bring in a fresh arm in his place, whether from inside or outside the organization.

This option feels unlikely, but shouldn't be ruled out entirely.

Roster spots are valuable on any MLB team, and Kansas City should be getting some arms back in 2027.

Nick Mears and Tony Gonsolin could be intriguing bullpen options in 2027 if fully healthy. Ryan Bergert should be coming back, as well as Ben Kudrna. Both could transition to the bullpen after getting surgery this season in an effort to limit their innings. Alec Marsh and James McArthur could finally come back after missing the past two seasons (though that feels unlikely). The Royals could also aggressively promote arms like Kendry Chourio and L.P. Langevin, who primarily pitched in High-A Quad Cities this year (TINSTAPP). 

Even if the Royals go outside the organization, acquiring a league-average reliever on a minimum deal would be a heck of a lot more valuable than what we saw from Erceg in 2026. 

Still, this move feels unlikely, especially based on pitching coach Brian Sweeney's comments after Erceg's demotion to Omaha in a recent article by MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers.

Quote

 

“He’s worked his tail off to try to get back to the form that we all know he can do,” pitching coach Brian Sweeney said. “It’s been hard. And it was really tough just on him because he’s worked his tail off, and he probably thinks, ‘How and why? Why did this happen?’ And it’s OK. I want him to know that. He’s not a failure. It’s tough to hear the boos and not get the job done for your teammates. But some of the best pitchers in the world have had tough times on the mound.

“This is a reset to go down with a plan, for [pitching coaches] Dane [Johnson] and [David Lundquist] to execute with him, to help him get back to the version that’s closer to what we saw in 2024 and early part of ‘25. It’s a hard message to hear, it’s a hard message to tell, but Lucas is a part of our future. He really is.”

 

Erceg doesn't have much value, and this year was absolutely brutal. That said, he likely won't command much in arbitration this offseason. The Royals could bring him back on a deal between $900K and $1.1 million at most. That's essentially what a cheap league-average free-agent reliever would cost. 

Maybe the former Cal product is done after this season. However, for around $1 million, it's in the Royals' best interest to give him another shot and see if he can turn it around in 2027 and get back to his 2024-2025 form. 

Change His Pitching Stance (To Help His Four-Seamer)

One thing I have noticed with Erceg over the years is that his pitching stance has changed slightly. Whether it's intentional or not, he's moved from a more closed stretch to a more open one, and the results have regressed, especially with that change. 

Here's an example of Erceg generating a whiff on his four-seamer back in 2024 against the Yankees' Aaron Judge in the postseason. 

Now let's take a look at his 2025 pitching stance, when he generated a looking strikeout against the Angels' Zach Neto.

In 2024, his back knee is bent, his left leg is straighter, and his left shoulder is directed more toward the middle of the plate. In 2025, his back leg is straighter at first, his left foot has less pressure on the mound, and his right shoulder points more off the plate. 

Now, let's take a look at 2026, which is a strikeout at Kauffman Stadium against the Cardinals' Jordan Walker. 

2026 looks like a hybrid of 2024 and 2025. The back leg is a little more bent, and he's putting more weight on his left foot. He also keeps his hands closer to his body, especially compared to 2025 (when they seem further away). However, the shoulder seems more open than what we saw in 2024. 

Erceg generated a whiff in the video above against the Cardinals. However, the four-seamer whiff rate has plummeted in 2026 after staying stable in 2024 and 2025. 

Thus, the Storm Chasers coaching staff may be able to help Erceg adjust his pitching stance and return him to his 2024 form (or somewhere between 2024 and 2025). The four-seamer was so key for Erceg in 2024, as evidenced in his TJ Stuff+ summary from that season with the A's and Royals.

Not only was his four-seamer his most utilized pitch in 2024 (30.8% usage), but it also had a 104 TJ Stuff+, a 25.2% chase rate, and a 28.6% whiff rate. 

Let's take a look at his TJ Stuff+ summary in 2026, with particular attention being paid to his four-seam fastball TJ Stuff+ metrics. 

His four-seamer is his most-thrown pitch this year with a 29.6% usage. However, the velocity is down (97.1 MPH), as is his TJ Stuff+ (95), chase rate (23.7%), and whiff rate (18.4%). 

For Erceg to get back into form, he needs to tap into his four-seamer again, since it was such an effective pitch for him two seasons ago when he was locked in as the Royals' closer. Perhaps working on his pitching stance and ironing out his mechanics in Omaha can help him regain that fastball effectiveness in 2027. 

Move Erceg to a Starting Role

I wrote about this back in July on Royals Keep, but I think that this demotion to Omaha could be a prime opportunity for Erceg to perhaps try things out as a starter again.

One reason it could work is that Erceg already has a fairly diverse pitch mix: a four-seamer, slider, sinker, changeup, and cutter. He's throwing the latter for the first time since 2023. Adding a sweeper or curve could help solidify Erceg's mix, but he has the right foundation, arsenal-wise, to make the move to the rotation. It's not like he's a two-pitch pitcher who can't throw other offerings like some relievers. 

Another reason a move to the rotation could work is that it could help Erceg change his mental approach on the mound.

After a May 2nd save, Erceg, super amped up, let it fly in a postgame interview with Royals TV's Joel Goldberg. 

I get that having high intensity makes sense for a closer, and it works for many of them. Grant Balfour was a madman during his days in Oakland, and even Royals relievers like Kelvin Herrera were known for their intense approaches. 

That said, I think the overly intense approach backfired on Erceg, especially when things started going south. The struggles affected his confidence, and he just couldn't pitch in any spot this year, let alone high-leverage ones.

Going to starting could help him not just be more relaxed, but maintain a more consistent mental approach on the mound that's been missing for him at the Major League level as a reliever. Maybe it worked early on, but it's not working now, and having to conserve himself over 4-6 innings of work may be the switch he needs to flip to becoming an effective pitcher again.

We have seen other teams find success with former relievers moving into starting roles. Clay Holmes found success with the Mets last year. Griffen Jax went from a failed Rays closer to a solid Rays starter (until he got injured). Lastly, Seth Lugo is the epitome of moving from the bullpen to the rotation to excellent results. He finished second in the AL Cy Young race after pitching in the Mets bullpen two seasons prior. 

It's not like there are a lot of great starting pitching prospects coming up from Northwest Arkansas. Drew Beam and Felix Arronde, two ranked prospects on our list, might need to repeat Double-A. Thus, Erceg wouldn't be blocking anyone of note in Omaha if he moves to the rotation.

With two Minor League options remaining after this year, the Royals might as well roll the dice and see what Erceg could do in a change of role. 

If it doesn't work out, they can always move him back to the bullpen, after all.  

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