Going Oppo: Why the Royals Can't Compete In 2027

The Royals took a calculated risk at the trade deadline by not letting go of pitchers like Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Daniel Lynch IV. The Royals front office believes that the Royals are able to compete for the playoffs in 2027. This belief makes sense on the surface since many Royals contributors are still under club control for next season. However, the deeper you look at the roster, the more 2027 starts to look less like a team one offseason away from contention and more like a team that has too many problems that need to be solved.

This is one of two articles. To read the opposing viewpoint, click here.

Unsettled Rotation 

The Royals entered last offseason with a surplus of major-league options to the point where they were open to trading away starters to bolster the lineup. With the summer coming to a close in 2027, only three of the starters from that group remain on the active roster: Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Noah Cameron. To account for injuries and departures, the Royals have turned to Randy Dobnak and Lynch to fill the remaining rotation spots. 

With the exception of maybe Bergert, none of these pitchers (those who are still in the organization) can be counted on for a high volume of innings next season, and the Royals will need to add a minimum of two major-league proven starters to have a chance at competing. While the front office could expect a return from Bergert and Ragans to help this team next season if their rehabs stay on schedule, the Royals would be asking a lot of those pitchers to make immediate impacts following their recoveries.

While Dobnak has been a surprise spark to the rotation since joining in July. In his first five starts with the Royals, Dobnak has a 2.05 ERA over 26 ⅓ innings. However, his 3.57 FIP and 4.74 xERA indicate he is headed for a regression, and his spot with the Royals is not guaranteed after this season since he is set to be a free agent. Could the Royals decide to hold onto Dobnak after his successful start? Until this season, he had not thrown more than 10 major-league innings since 2021. Choosing to rely on him long term would carry its own risks.

For Lynch, he has only pitched a total of four innings in his two starts since joining the rotation. In those short appearances, he has allowed six earned runs with two home runs. Lynch had previously been a starter for the Royals but has not started the majority of his appearances since 2023. He had been the Royals’ best reliever this season and will almost certainly need to return to the bullpen to regain his impact.

The prospect options do not look like they will be able to provide an immediate impact either. Avila was called up this season and suffered a long-term injury. No. 18 prospect Ben Kudrna was projected to possibly make his major-league debut this season before he was sidelined for all of 2026 after undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his elbow. Mitch Spence struggled in limited time this season. 

One intriguing option could be Lucas Braun, who was acquired from the Braves in exchange for Falter and Lane Thomas near this year’s trade deadline. Though in a season in which the Royals intend to contend for the postseason, relying on a prospect with only 14 starts in triple-A is usually not a recipe for success.

Injury Issues Have Plagued The Lineup

Unsurprisingly, Bobby Witt Jr. is the most consistent bat in the Royals’ lineup this season, with Jac Caglianone proving that he can be a threat in the middle of the order. After those two, there is a drop-off in production from Royals hitters this season. Of Royals players with at least 100 plate appearances, only Witt, Caglianone, Tyler Tolbert, and Lane Thomas have a wRC+ over 100 (league-average). Thomas was traded to the Braves, and Tolbert is only just above that qualifier with 104 PAs and had a streak of 12 straight PAs with a hit, which perhaps has skewed his stats. 

Previous offensive standouts Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino are currently on the injured list and have spent extended stretches out of the lineup. 

Garcia was one of the standout performers last season for the Royals, and he was rewarded with a contract extension that runs through the 2030 season. He also had a strong World Baseball Classic with champions Venezuela and won the tournament MVP. Can Garcia return to his 2025 form after fully recovering from his injury?

Pasquantino entered 2026 after finishing his only fully healthy season, where he hit 32 home runs and 113 RBIs with a 116 wRC+. In his limited time in 2026, he has a wRC+ of 84 with a lower wOBA of .295. First base is a position that is expected to provide power in the lineup. Pasquantino has not been able to provide that this season despite also having a strong performance in the WBC with Italy. He is another player that the Royals will need to return to his previous form in order to compete in 2027.

The Bullpen Will Need A Full Reset

What could go wrong in the bullpen has gone wrong for the Royals in 2026. The Royals' bullpen ranks among the bottom two in many key metrics, including fWAR, ERA, and FIP. Many standout performers from previous seasons saw severe regression. Carlos Estévez was the MLB saves leader in 2025 but saw an almost 5 mph drop in his pitch velocity. He has only appeared in one game this season and has been on the IL since. The Royals will certainly not be picking up his club option for 2027. Lucas Erceg assumed the closer job in Estévez’s absence, a job he would eventually lose after his ERA ballooned to 6 after having an ERA under 3 in each of his previous seasons in Kansas City. Erceg still has three years of control but will need to regain his command to make a meaningful impact in the bullpen moving forward. 

Other offseason acquisitions with years of control include Nick Mears and Alex Lange. Lange took over the closer role after Erceg and had a stretch of successful save opportunities. His ERA now sits above 6.00, and he no longer occupies the closer role. Mears has one more year of control, but hasn’t pitched since May with a shoulder impingement, with no current timetable for return.

Left in the bullpen are Steven Cruz, Jose Cuas, Nate Pearson, Mason Black, Craig Kimbrel, and Lynch. Lynch, Cuas, and Pearson are the only relievers with positive fWAR, and with the exception of Kimbrel, who is definitely past his prime, none of these pitchers have extensive experience in high-leverage or save opportunities. The Royals will need to add proven bullpen arms to anchor the bullpen if they truly want to compete in 2027.

The Outfield Isn't Settled

Other than from Caglianone, the Royals must get more production from their outfield. The outfield has improved compared to 2026, when they ranked last in fWAR and wRC+, but the improvement has only moved the Royals to 17th in wRC+ and 24th in fWAR. A lot of that production was carried by Lane Thomas, who has since been traded to Atlanta.

Isaac Collins has been a steady performer in left field, but he only has a league-average wRC+. His plate discipline is strong with low chase and whiff rates, but that is offset by his lack of power with an xSLG in the bottom 5% in MLB.

Kyle Isbel has returned from injury to play center field, but he needs a platoon partner to face left-handed pitchers. Tolbert can be the player to split time in center, but he hasn’t proven to be a consistent threat to do damage in the lineup. 

For a lineup that has been over-reliant on Witt and Caglianone for power, at least one of Isbel, Tolbert, or Collins would need to step up to that role, but none of them have yet demonstrated the ability to do so. The Royals will need to add a player of that profile in the offseason.

Other outfield options include John Rave and potential callup, former 1st-round draft pick, Gavin Cross. Rave has not been able to cement himself in the Royals lineup with streaky performances. Cross’s minor-league career has been full of ups and downs with a high strikeout rate. He could make an impact if given the promotion to the majors, but neither he nor Rave should truly be counted on for regular playing time next season at this time.

Other Lingering Questions

What role does Perez have in 2027? He has one more year left on his contract, but Father Time has caught up with him in 2026. He is having a career-worst season with a 68 wRC+ and -1.3 fWAR. Carter Jensen has assumed the starting catching duties, and Perez will need to take on a lesser role. If the Royals decide to make him the primary designated hitter, his bat will need to improve.

Is Michael Massey the starting second baseman? Massey is having one of his better years with a 96 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR. He has been able to remain relatively healthy. Can he continue to remain healthy and secure the second base position?

To sum all of the above, on offense the Royals need Pasquantino and Garcia to regain their health and return to previous levels of production, add at least one outfielder who can ideally hit for power, and answer how to handle Perez and the DH position. For pitching, they need to add two MLB-proven starters and multiple relievers, one of which being the everyday closer. For a small-market franchise that does not have a history of making big moves in free agency, the laundry list of needs has gotten too long. The Royals are yet to prove that they are willing to make the moves necessary to take their roster to the next level. With an impending lockout after the CBA expires in December, free agency and offseason moves will have an added level of difficulty and anxiety to navigate. 

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