Carter Jensen is Showing He's a Long-Term Star for the Royals

On Saturday, the Royals lost 5-1 to the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. While Kansas City lost its 83rd game of the season, there was a glimmer of hope in the defeat: rookie Carter Jensen hit his 24th home run, which tied Bob Hamelin for the Royals' rookie home run record. 

It's been an incredible rookie season for the Park Hill High School alum, who came into the 2026 season with tremendous expectations after hitting .300 with a .941 OPS and three home runs in 69 plate appearances in a cup of coffee with Kansas City last season in September. 

In 556 plate appearances, Jensen is hitting .231 with a .770 OPS. In addition to his 24 dingers, he also has 73 runs scored, 31 doubles, 71 RBI, a wRC+ of 110, and a fWAR of 3.0. His fWAR is the second-highest of any position player on the team (behind only Bobby Witt Jr.) and the third-highest of any player in general (Noah Cameron has a 3.1 fWAR).

When looking at his Statcast percentiles this year, Jensen isn't perfect by any means. His strikeout rate is high at 29.1% (which ranks in the 12th percentile), and he also ranks in the 24th percentile in whiff% and the 22nd percentile in z-contact%. Beyond that, he ranks in the upper percentiles in most categories, as shown below.

Jensen ranks in the 84th percentile or higher in O-Swing%, average EV, 90th EV, and Max EV, and also ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in hard-hit%, bat speed, barrel%, and PullAir%. The 23-year-old catcher not only shows great batted-ball ability, but also demonstrates excellent plate patience and discipline. He may not be the kind of hitter who will hit for a high average, and the strikeouts will always be high, but the walks and power numbers will make up for that. 

The Royals have plenty of time with Jensen, who isn't arbitration-eligible until 2029. However, with Salvador Perez likely retiring after 2027 (next year is the last year of his current deal), should Kansas City look to lock in Jensen long-term, much like they did with Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia after big seasons? Or should the Royals wait, especially considering they have a couple of talented catching prospects in the minors, Blake Mitchell and Ramon Ramirez?

Let's break down how Jensen compares to other catchers this year, including two highly touted ones around his age, and what the Royals should look to do this offseason.

Jensen Has Been One of Baseball's Best Catchers This Year

There's no question from a fan perspective: Jensen plays in the shadow of Salvy, a future Royals Hall of Famer and possible inductee into Cooperstown. But Jensen has not only been the Royals' best catcher in 2026 (no surprise), but arguably one of the best catchers in the league.

According to Fangraphs, Jensen ranks third in baseball in fWAR among players whose primary position is catcher. His 3.0 fWAR is only behind Dillon Dingler of the Tigers (4.8 fWAR) and Gabriel Moreno of the Diamondbacks (4.0 fWAR). When it comes to production solely at catcher, Jensen also ranks third, but his catcher-specific fWAR is higher at 3.8, as seen below.

As Royals fans can see above, not only is Jensen's fWAR higher, but his wRC+ is higher as well. Some may ask, "Why is his catcher fWAR 0.8 wins higher than his overall fWAR?" That's primarily because he's struggled as a DH, as he only has a 55 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances as a designated hitter this season.

Thus, not only does Jensen provide strong defense behind the plate (+1 FRV and 3.2 Def), but he has actually hit better when he plays catcher. That's a great sign that Jensen can be productive long-term offensively, despite the demands needed to man baseball's toughest position. 

When it comes to home runs as a catcher, Jensen is behind only Hunter Goodman of the Rockies, an All-Star, and Moreno, who probably should've been an All-Star for Arizona this year. Thus, the 23-year-old Royals catcher is showing that he has the upside to be a main producer for this Kansas City lineup for years to come. 

How Does Jensen Compare to Other Young Catchers?

Jensen has been one of the best overall catchers this year by most metrics, and it's crazy that he is not getting more AL Rookie of the Year consideration. Detroit's Kevin McGonigle and Cleveland's Chase DeLauter have received all the attention, especially since they have 4.7 and 3.2 fWAR marks, respectively. That said, neither McGonigle nor DeLauter plays catcher, and I think voters are forgetting how difficult that transition is for anyone, let alone a highly heralded rookie. 

However, how does Jensen compare to other talented catchers, including those who came with arguably more prospect hype? 

Two other catchers that come to mind are Atlanta's Drake Baldwin and Baltimore's Samuel Basallo. Baldwin was an All-Star this year and won NL Rookie of the Year last season. As for Basallo, he's had a bit more of a modest rookie year (100 wRC+ and 0.9 fWAR in 375 plate appearances), but the Orioles believe enough in the 21-year-old to trade away Adley Rutschman, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2019 MLB Draft (one pick ahead of Witt). 

Here's how those three have performed metrically this year, via Fangraphs. 

Jensen leads the trio of catchers with a 3.0 fWAR, which is 0.2 wins better than Baldwin and 2.1 wins better than Basallo. What's most interesting is that Jensen has been a far better defensive catcher than the other two. His Def is three runs above average compared to Basallo's -1 mark and Baldwin's -5 mark. Additionally, while Baldwin and Basallo are known more for their power, Jensen's .216 ISO is considerably better than Basallo's (.186) and Baldwin's (.174). 

Another plus for Jensen is that he's just 23, younger than Baldwin (25) and only two years older than Basallo. Thus, there's still a lot of long-term value for Jensen, especially since he has handled the increased catching load in 2026 well for a rookie. 

One catcher I also wanted to include in the mix but didn't in the statistical one above is Chicago's Kyle Teel. I didn't include Teel because he's been heavily affected by injury this year, with only 88 plate appearances in 26 games. Over that small sample, he's hitting .213 with an 88 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR. 

That said, comparing his Statcast percentiles not just to Jensen, but to Baldwin and Basallo, is a worthwhile exercise. That can show how much of an improvement Teel would have if he stays healthy next year, based on his Statcast percentiles. 

Here's how the four players compare, based on the Statcast comparison tool via Baseball Savant. 

Overall, Baldwin has the best offensive profile by a considerable margin. However, he and Jensen are pretty close defensively, with Baldwin doing better in terms of blocking, but Jensen outdoing him in terms of throwing out baserunners. Basallo also ranks pretty well in blocks and throwing, while Teel does well in the former, but not the latter. Jensen and Baldwin are also much better framing catchers than Basallo and Teel.

In terms of baserunning, Jensen is by far the best runner in terms of sprint speed and overall baserunning (51st percentile). That shows that Jensen can handle the leadoff spot for Kansas City for at least a couple more seasons. Offensively, he's produced a 128 wRC+ as the Royals' leadoff hitter this season, giving them stability at this spot in the batting order for the first time in a while.

There are positives and negatives with all four catchers in this comparison. However, this graphic shows Jensen deserves more respect among the game's young catchers, both now and in the long term.

Do the Royals Need to Lock Up Jensen to an Extension Soon?

After a tremendous season from Jensen, the big question among Royals fans is this: Do the Royals need to sign the talented catcher to a long-term extension?

Now, the impulse is to say, "yes", especially considering Jensen is just 23 and is only going to get more expensive as he gets older. However, the Royals have extensions to Witt and Garcia on the books, and they also face another tough long-term decision with Jac Caglianone, who's injured now but has also had a tremendous year, as shown in the Statcast profile below.

With a .285 average, 126 TJ Bat+, 23 home runs, and a 2.4 fWAR this year, Cags is every bit as deserving as Jensen to get a long-term deal. Like Jensen, Cags also becomes arbitration-eligible in 2029. 

However, while Cags certainly has a case for an extension, Jensen should get priority over the former Florida product. 

First, Jensen has shown he can stick at catcher at the Major League level, and while the blocking has been bad, it's been better than earlier in the season. He has the chance to be an average player in this category in 2027, which would only increase his value even more.

Conversely, Cags has struggled defensively at both outfield and first base, as illustrated by his -11.8 Def this season. There's no doubt about Cags' arm strength, but his instincts and range in right field and first base have been underwhelming, to put it frankly. 

Second, Cags has struggled with injuries this year. His latest elbow issue has kept him out for about a week, even though he hasn't been placed on the IL. He also spent time on the IL last year due to a hamstring strain. As for Jensen, he has not missed any time on the IL or due to injury this year or last. For a team that has struggled with injuries, they need to invest in players who can stay on the field.

Now, if the Royals can extend both within the next two years, that would be the best solution. Extend Jensen in 2027 and Cags in 2028, especially if Cags can stay healthy and demonstrate progress at one position defensively. 

That said, Jensen should be the Royals' financial priority, especially after the progress he's shown offensively and defensively over the past two seasons. 

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