Can Michael Massey Return to Form in 2026?

The Kansas City Royals know that a better lineup will be key to an improvement in 2026. After all, they ranked 26th in runs scored and home runs, 22nd in OBP, and 20th in OPS last season, which helps explain why they went 82-80 last year and missed the postseason. Those rankings have to be better in 2026 if they want to return to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. 

So far, JJ Picollo has made efforts to improve the lineup this offseason. He signed former Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas on a one-year, $5.2 million deal and acquired outfielder Isaac Collins in a trade with Milwaukee. They also signed utility players Josh Rojas, Kevin Newman, and Abraham Toro, hoping one of them could be a wild card and have a surprising 2026 campaign in their new surroundings in Kansas City. 

However, it's looking like the Royals' ability to make a big deal may be starting to dwindle. That is especially true in the wake of big free-agent moves such as Kyle Tucker's signing with the Dodgers and Bo Bichette's with the Mets. Ken Rosenthal reported as such in his latest article on The Athletic. 

Here's what Rosenthal said in that article about the Royals' outlook for the remainder of the offseason, especially relating to Boston's Jarren Duran and St. Louis' Brendan Donovan, whom they have both been tied to this winter. 

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The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades, St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan and Boston’s Jarren Duran.

Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

While the Royals’ outfield production might remain below-average, their infield of Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia should again be one of the most productive in baseball, particularly if India bounces back.

 

Hence, for the Royals to win 83 or more games this season (which will be needed to make the postseason), they will need continued production from their core hitters (Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez) as well as some breakouts from their complementary ones. 

One of those complementary ones could be Michael Massey, who is coming off a rough 2025 season.

Massey's role is a bit unclear for 2026, especially with Jonathan India returning on a one-year, $8 million deal. India is expected to be the Royals' regular second baseman this season, and there is hope that his batted-ball luck and batted-ball approach could improve in 2026, which could lead to better offensive production (as Philip Ruo talked in an article here, Royals Keep). 

However, for the Royals' offense to truly improve, a solid campaign from Massey, even as a utility player, will be necessary. Thus, let's take a look at what Massey did in 2025, what his outlook could be for this upcoming season, and how he could be best utilized by manager Matt Quatraro this season and possibly beyond. 

Solid Contact Ability, But Lackluster Power Metrics from Massey

Massey seemed to be trending in the right direction in 2023 and 2024, when he started getting regular playing time with the Royals.

In his first full season in Kansas City in 2023, Massey hit 15 home runs, collected 55 RBI, and stole six bases in 461 plate appearances. Granted, he only posted a 74 wRC+, .283 wOBA, and accumulated a 0.5 fWAR, which were all disappointing marks. That said, he also had a .318 xwOBA, thus illustrating that Massey was capable of seeing positive regression in the future.

Positive regression did occur in 2024, even though Massey struggled with injuries and played in only 100 games (29 fewer than in 2023). His wRC+ improved to 104, his wOBA to .317, and fWAR to 1.5 in 2024. Massey was the starting second baseman for the Royals in the postseason and came up with some key hits in the playoffs, including the ALDS against the Yankees. 

Unfortunately, things fell back to earth for Massey in 2025. 

In 77 games and 277 plate appearances, he posted a 57 wRC+, .254 wOBA, and -0.4 fWAR. On a positive note, he provided some solid defense at both second base and left field, as evidenced by his +2 FRV and +1 FRV, respectively. That said, his defense was not enough to make up for his porous production at the plate.

A big issue for Massey was not his contact ability. He only struck out 15.5% of the time last year, a career low. However, he had a too free-swinging approach. His walk rate was only 3.2% (a career-low), and his O-Swing% was 35.4%, 7.3% higher than the league average. Massey also struggled in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, as illustrated by his TJ Stats summary below.

As Royals fans could see above, Massey ranked in the 15th percentile in average EV, 11th percentile in Max EV, 9th percentile in Barrel%, and 13th percentile in Hard-Hit%. Those aren't encouraging trends, even with the fences at Kauffman Stadium being moved in slightly for 2026. 

Conversely, a positive trend for Massey in batted-ball metrics was that he still launched the ball well. That is especially illustrated by his 58th percentile LA Sweet-Spot%. He also pulled the ball effectively with a 91st percentile Pull% and 69th percentile Pull Air%. His spray chart shows that his pull-heavy approach proved successful, especially when it came to extra-base hits, when he launched the ball effectively. 

He also demonstrated a positive trend in xwOBA over the course of the 2025 season. After hitting a low point around the 190th plate-appearance mark of the season, he turned it around at the 200th plate-appearance mark and ended up being an above-average hitter in terms of xwOBA by the conclusion of his season.

Therefore, even though the overall numbers weren't great for Massey, he showed encouraging signs in 2025 that should make Royals fans hopeful he could have a season in 2026 closer to 2024 in production. 

What Do the Projections Say for Massey?

When it comes to projections for Massey in 2026, I compiled in Datawrapper a collection of the following projections:

• Fangraphs' Depth Charts (FGDC)
• Steamer
• The BAT X
• OOPSY

I included the following categories as well:

• Plate Appearances (PA)
• Home Runs (HR)
• Runs Scored (R)
• Runs Batted In (RBI)
• Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
• Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)

Here are the 2026 projections for Massey, as illustrated in the table below.

Depth Charts (FGDC) and Steamer were the most optimistic about Massey's production in 2026. Not only did they project the best wOBA (.301), but also the best wRC+ (89). FGDC and OOPSY projected the most at-bats and the same number of home runs (nine), but FGDC was slightly more optimistic, as illustrated by FGDC predicting a better wOBA and wRC+. 

Massey's The Bat X projections were the most intriguing. They projected the worst wRC+ and wOBA, and by a decent margin (his wOBA was 10 points lower than his FGDC mark; his BAT X wRC+ was also seven points lower than his FGDC wRC+). Those aren't good, obviously. However, the BAT X also projected the most home runs (10) and RBI (40) of the four projection systems. Hence, while the BAT X doesn't predict a great overall performance, they project his home run and run production could still be impactful in 2026. 

The key difference with the BAT X is that it incorporates batted-ball and Statcast data into its projections. When looking at Massey's Ideal Angle% trend from last year, he proved to be above-average in this area for most of the year, which could help him launch home runs effectively in 2026.

Granted, none of the projections expect Massey to be a regular contributor for the Royals in this upcoming season. However, if Massey can showcase some of the power potential early, especially in the new Kauffman surroundings, he could earn himself more playing time over the course of the season. 

Final Thoughts on Massey's 2026 Outlook

When looking at the Royals hitters' BAT X projections for 2026, Massey ranks 11th in terms of Fantasy Points production (FPTS). While this isn't a fantasy baseball article, FPTS can offer a glimpse of a player's overall production, especially compared to his peers. 

As seen in the table below via Datawrapper, Massey ranks toward the bottom of this group of Royals hitters when it comes to expected FPTS production. 

Massey doesn't strike out, and he launches the ball well. However, the exit velocity and batted-ball metrics remain red flags, and his lackluster bat speed doesn't help his outlook either. When looking at his bat speed trend from last year via Savant, Massey was a below-average hitter, with his average bat speed being 70.1 MPH last season.

That bat speed was 0.8 MPH decline from 2024 and a 0.7 MPH decline from 2023. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his bat speed fares in 2026, especially if he is healthier than he was a season ago. A positive regression to his 2024 and 2025 bat speed could mean a double-digit HR season could be coming in 2026. No change or a negative regression? Massey may be seeing more time in Omaha than in Kansas City.

Massey will be 28 years old in March, so there isn't much time for the former Illinois product to "prove" himself. We saw two Royals players enter 2025 needing solid seasons to justify their roster spots: Garcia and MJ Melendez. Garcia played himself to an All-Star appearance and a multi-year extension this offseason. As for Melendez, he spent most of the season with the Storm Chasers, and he was eventually non-tendered. 

I believe Massey offers much more upside and a history of better production than Melendez did at the MLB level. Massey has a career 1.5 fWAR in 358 games, while Melendez has a -1.1 career fWAR in 435 career games. Thus, Massey is in a better spot than Melendez was a year ago.

Nonetheless, this is a game of production, and Massey needs to produce at the plate in 2026 if he wants to have a long-term future with the Royals (or MLB team in general).