Arbitrary Thoughts: SP Randy Dobnak

SP Randy Dobnak, RHP

Age on Opening Day 2027: 32
Service Time: 3.148

2024 Salary: $2,250,000
2025 Salary: $3,000,000
2026 Salary: $845,000
2027 MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $2,300,000

Dobnak Background

Dobnak’s route to Kansas City made a few different stops. He was signed by the Twins as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and made his major-league debut in 2019, with mixed success. He finished 2019 with a 1.59 ERA over 28 ⅓ innings in nine appearances (five starts). He made 10 starts in the shortened 2020 season, with a 4.05 ERA across 46 ⅔ innings. His early performances earned him a pre-arbitration contract extension worth $9.25 million over five years with additional club options for 2026, 2027, and 2028, which he signed before the 2021 season.

Unfortunately, Dobnak’s struggles began after signing his extension. In 2021, he made 14 appearances with a 7.82 ERA across 50 ⅔ innings. He was optioned to the minors and did not see major-league action again until 2024. In 2022, he missed most of the season with a right middle finger strain, and he spent all of 2023 in Triple-A, where he threw 126 innings with a 5.13 ERA.

In 2024, he was designated for assignment but stayed in the Twins organization. After minimal opportunities to pitch in the majors, he was packaged in a trade to the Tigers in 2025 but never appeared in a major-league game for Detroit. 

Dobnak's 2026 Season

15 G (13 GS), 74 ⅓ IP, 78 H, 26 BB, 49 K, 3.51 ERA, 1.399 WHIP

In the offseason, the Mariners signed Dobnak to a minor-league contract with a spring training invite. After not making the MLB roster, he threw 70 innings in Triple-A Tacoma with a 5.01 ERA. In June, he triggered his upward mobility clause that required Seattle to offer him to the other 29 teams if they did not add Dobnak to the 40-man roster. With the Royals’ rotation left decimated by injuries, they were able to acquire Dobnak in exchange for cash considerations.

Dobnak started strong after joining the Royals. He limited runs to two or fewer in each of his first six starts, and his ERA remained at or below 2.00 through his first 10 appearances. His September was a month to forget with an ERA of 7.15 in his final five starts of the season. Despite the poor finish to the season, Dobnak was able to provide valuable innings for a rotation that was dismantled by injuries. 

Dobnak excelled in limiting hitters to a 3.7% barrel rate and inducing ground balls at a 51.2% rate. While this is a good recipe for limiting home runs and extra-base hits, Dobnak struggled with striking out batters, and batters were too easily able to make contact off him. One of Dobnak's biggest weaknesses was his inability to miss bats. Hitters made contact on 91% of their swings at pitches in the strike zone (league worst), leaving him heavily reliant on his defense to record outs. His 4.22 FIP, more than a run higher than his ERA, suggests his results could be difficult to sustain.

In his final five starts of the season, his barrel rate jumped to 5.3%, and his ground-ball rate dropped to below 45%. His chase rate also dropped from a league-average 30.4% to 26.9%. Hitters being more disciplined in their approach against Dobnak, combined with hitting more fly balls harder, was reflected in a jump in hitter wOBA from .296 in his first 10 appearances to .371 in his final five appearances. While a small sample, the regression in his underlying metrics is concerning.

Royals Depth at his Position (Starting Pitcher)

• 40-man roster: Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, Luinder Avila (injured), Ryan Bergert (inj), Stephen Kolek (inj), Ben Kudrna (inj), Cole Ragans (inj), Steven Zobac, Mason Black, Mitch Spence
• Arbitration Eligible: Alec Marsh
• 2027 Club Option: Tony Gonsolin
• Triple-A: Lucas Braun, Henry Williams, Hunter Owen, John Means, Ethan Bosacker, Ryan Ramsey, Hunter Patteson
• Double-A: David Shields, Justin Lamkin, Felix Arronde, Drew Beam, Frank Mozzicato, Tanner Jones, Coleman Picard, Emmanuel Reyes

Why the Royals Should Offer Him Arbitration

The Royals simply do not have enough starters healthy to start next season. Ragans’s UCL repair surgery had a 10-12 month recovery timeline, which would have him ready in May at the earliest. Bergert, Avila, and Kolek had Tommy John surgery each. With a recovery of at least 12 months, Bergert has a chance to be ready for the start of the season, but Avila and Kolek would be slated to return no earlier than August. Even with the Royals looking to add to the rotation for 2027, getting rid of Dobnak would be letting go of crucial pitching depth.

Dobnak has shown that he is capable of being a contributing part of a major-league rotation. If the Royals can find a way to recapture Dobnak’s first 10 appearances from this season, he could be a threat at the bottom of the rotation. At a projected salary of $2,300,000, the Royals would not have to invest much in seeing how Dobnak can perform for a full season in Kansas City. At the very least, Dobnak can help bridge the gap to other starters returning to the rotation and be an insurance policy for if any recoveries are longer than expected. Dobnak also has two minor-league options remaining, so he still has some roster flexibility to provide depth if other pitchers join the organization or outperform him in spring training.

Why the Royals Should Non-Tender Him

If any of the following is true, Dobnak could be a non-tender candidate:

• The Royals intend on signing/trading for at least two new arms to immediately plug into the rotation.
• He is blocking a path to the 40-man roster for a prospect or Rule 5 Draft candidate.
• The Royals believe that his performance from September is more predictive of how Dobnak will perform in 2027.

While there is no way to reliably project the first two points, the last point is a legitimate conversation to have. As mentioned before, Dobnak’s end of the season was not great while allowing 18 earned runs in 22 ⅔ innings. Even though his August ERA was 2.81 over the same number of starts, his 1.558 WHIP was higher than his September mark of 1.456. This could indicate that Dobnak’s early success was in spite of his inability to keep runners off the basepaths and raises concerns about his ability to reliably sustain success at the major-league level. 

Prediction: The Royals Keep Dobnak

There are just too many unknowns for the rotation entering 2027, and the Royals cannot afford to lose more arms before adding any. With a relatively inexpensive projected salary and roster flexibility in his two minor-league options, there is very little downside in keeping him in contention for a rotation spot while other pitchers return from the IL.

There are legitimate concerns about his ability to remain productive in the majors. Until more pitchers are added to the roster, there is not a pitcher in the organization who has yet made a case to start ahead of him in the rotation in 2027.

What do you think the Royals should do with Dobnak? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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