Craig Kimbrel Can Still Help The Royals, If You Work Around His Limitations

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Image courtesy of William Purnell-Imagn Images

It has been a long time since Craig Kimbrel stopped being one of the best closers in Major League Baseball. He is 38 years old, has 17 seasons of experience, and has been on five different teams over the past two campaigns. He made his debut with the Kansas City Royals on August 12 and did not allow earned runs in his first nine relief appearances. That stretch includes an unearned run that resulted in the Royals’ 4-3 loss last Saturday.

On Monday, Kimbrel allowed five runs in the 10th inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks and lost again. He is pitching to a 4.53 ERA and has 0.2 fWAR in 43 appearances. It is his highest fWAR since he saved 23 games for the Baltimore Orioles in 2024, and that leaves us with an interesting situation. Without being responsible for closing games, he has still been able to add value as a reliever. So, in large part, it depends on how we look at his season this year. Before allowing the five runs Monday against the D-backs, Kimbrel had a 1.99 ERA over his last 22 appearances.

What's notable about his consistency is that he had not allowed a home run against the 89 batters he had faced; if we add Monday’s game to that stretch, Kimbrel’s homerless streak extended to 98 batters faced, although his ERA rose to 3.42. Often, a single bad relief appearance can change the look of a dominant reliever. In Kimbrel’s case, the reality is that for much of this season, his outings have felt as if he still has a little fuel left in the tank.

Now, between injuries and inconsistencies, the question is whether the Royals will take Kimbrel’s experience and improvements into account in their plans for 2027. So far, they have brought him into important situations—with the game tied or in a save opportunity—in seven of his first 10 relief appearances. We already know Kimbrel has struggled in his last two appearances, but throughout the season, he has been more consistent under pressure and with little rest.

When he has pitched with the game tied or protecting a lead in save situations, Kimbrel has allowed a .727 OPS with a 2.95 K/BB ratio, one strikeout better than his overall 1.95 mark this season. He has combined that resurgence with a great ability to recover. In consecutive relief appearances or with one day of rest, Kimbrel has produced his best performance, holding opponents to a .206/.309/.353 slash line, with a .662 OPS allowed in 13 appearances.

That said, there is one point we cannot overlook here, and that is that Kimbrel was more vulnerable in his matchups against left-handed hitters. In 29 of his 43 relief appearances, he has faced four or fewer batters, and he has been used for more than one inning only once all year. Although he has had a slight improvement in his velocity (93.4 to 93.7 mph) compared with the small sample from last season, hitters are still finding ways to crush his four-seam fastball.

Pitch Type	Split	Pitch %	PA	HR	K%	xSLG	Whiff%	Dist (ft)	Hard Hit%
Four Seamer	vs LHB	30.5%	158	9	28.5%	.410	27.2%	196	37.5%
Four Seamer	vs RHB	27.6%	136	2	27.2%	.384	25.3%	210	47.4%
Knuckle Curve	vs LHB	10.6%	37	0	16.2%	.374	22.7%	108	41.4%
Knuckle Curve	vs RHB	7.4%	24	0	25.0%	.366	35.2%	132	35.3%
Sweeper	vs LHB	2.2%	11	0	27.3%	.339	21.1%	121	16.7%
Sweeper	vs RHB	5.6%	31	0	38.7%	.356	42.9%	176	44.4%
Changeup	vs LHB	1.5%	6	0	33.3%	.090	50.0%	90	0.0%
Sinker	vs LHB	0.4%	2	0	0.0%	-	0.0%	275	0.0%
Sinker	vs RHB	2.3%	9	0	11.1%	.262	13.6%	117	16.7%

This summary corresponds to the combined 2023, 2024, and 2026 seasons, when he experienced more wear and faced at least 180 opponents; I did not include 2025 because Kimbrel pitched only 12 innings. There you can see it: all 11 home runs allowed by Kimbrel have come against his four-seam fastball, nine of them against left-handed hitters. Right-handed hitters have connected for only two, but they have a higher Hard Hit% rate and the average distance is 210 feet. The knuckle curve, his primary secondary pitch, has also not been able to dominate left-handed hitters enough.

Let’s look at a chart of the slugging percentage allowed by Kimbrel in the combined 2023, 2024, and 2026 seasons when he threw his four-seam fastball against left- and right-handed hitters.

The impact of left-handed hitters appears in the chart on the left, and right-handed hitters on the right. What is most concerning about Kimbrel’s fastball is that it can barely survive where it used to, on the edges of the zone. But there is also another obvious problem, and that is that hitters from both sides are also managing to make quality contact outside the strike zone.

So, if the Royals bet on Kimbrel helping them in some role, they have to keep in mind that left-handed hitters will continue to be a problem. That could give us part of the expectations the Royals might have for his profile going forward. At 38 years old and with a career that could end up with him in Cooperstown, Kimbrel still does not want to give up, and he has shown signs that he still has something to offer the worst bullpen in baseball.

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