Seth Lugo's Return to Form

[Ben Walker]

The last time Kansas City saw Seth Lugo in 2025, he exited the game against the Tigers after just 3 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs. A nagging lower back strain—the same spondylolisthesis condition he’s managed since 2012—finally forced him to the sidelines in early September. After a runner-up finish in the 2024 Cy Young race, the question became: Could a 36-year-old with high mileage and back issues return to the elite form that earned him a $46 million extension?

Looking at the first two weeks of the 2026 season, his performance is answering with a commanding Yes. Lugo has returned to his very best form. Through his first four starts of the new campaign, the right-hander has posted a 1.48 ERA across 24.1 innings, surrendering a mere four earned runs while maintaining a WHIP of 0.99.

It’s no secret that Lugo loves to mix pitches and has made a career out of variety.  He has ten different pitch types up his sleeve and has used eight of them this season. Comparing this year over the past few seasons, velocity for the 4-seam, cutter, sinker, and changeup are virtually unchanged. 

What has changed so far this season, however, is a more balanced use of pitch types. Over the years, Lugo has always mixed well but has tended to favor a couple of pitches over others. No blame for that; very common for pitchers to hone in on what is working. But this season has kept hitters guessing more than usual. Each pitch type has been used less than 21 percent of the time.

 

And he’s been effective with those pitches. Batters are just hitting .212  overall, including an impressive .150 against the curve. In terms of spin direction, he’s increased both the active spin percentage and total movement on all but the slider. The changeup is moving nearly two and a half inches more than last year. 

In his 2026 debut against the Braves—a 6.1-inning shutout performance—he showcased the 4-seam fastball, changeup, curve, cutter, sinker, slider, slurve, and sweeper. He gave up zero walks and just five hits in an efficient 77-pitch outing. 

In yesterday's outing in Detroit, Lugo unfortunately had a no decision in what was a another impressive start. Much like his season debut, he gave up zero free passes and five hits across 6.2 innings. In 92 pitches, he only surrendered one earned run on a sacrifice fly in the third.

After a concerning 9.11 ERA in his final month of 2025, the 2026 version of Lugo looks physically refreshed and a return to his elite form. By effectively using his full arsenal, hitters genuinely don’t know what to expect. If he continues to stay healthy and build off this early momentum, we may once again be witnessing a Cy Young contender.

 

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