How Hard Will Regression Hit Noah Cameron in 2026?

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

 

One of the best Royals stories from 2025 was the emergence of rookie left-handed pitcher Noah Cameron.

In his first MLB season, the rookie from St. Joseph, Missouri, made 24 starts and pitched 138.1 innings after starting the season initially in Triple-A Omaha (seven starts and 32.2 IP with the Storm Chasers). In that MLB sample, he posted a 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.65 K/BB ratio, and 1.8 fWAR. In a season where Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Seth Lugo, and Michael Lorenzen all missed some time on the IL, Cameron became a workhorse at the bottom of the Royals' rotation. As a result, he not only finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but he also earned the Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year team award, which goes to the best Royals pitcher that season.

 

 

 

Safe to say, Cameron did everything in 2025 to prove that he belongs in the Royals rotation in 2026 and beyond. That said, there were a couple of minor red flags from the past year that could affect his outlook for the upcoming season, based on surface-level metrics alone. 

While he posted a sub-three ERA, which is pretty elite, his xERA was 4.08, his FIP was 4.18, and his xFIP was 4.08. Those aren't bad metrics by any means, especially for a No. 4 or No. 5 starter in the rotation. At the same time, each of those indicators has a difference of over 1, which is a significant gap. Add that with a .241 BABIP and 84% LOB% (strand rate), and it seems likely that Cameron will be unable to sustain his 2025 numbers into 2026, especially with the new park dimensions at Kauffman Stadium.

At the same time, Cameron remains a strong pitcher with a solid repertoire and the ability to minimize hard contact. Therefore, how much regression should Royals fans expect from the 26-year-old lefty this year? Will he pitch himself out of the rotation, especially with options like Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, and Luinder Avila likely starting the season in Triple-A Omaha? Or will Cameron's regression be minor?

In this post, I am going to look at his pitch repertoire and quality, what the batted ball and spray chart metrics from last season illustrate, and some final takeaways about Cameron's outlook for 2026 and beyond. 

(All stats and graphics courtesy of TJ Stats and Baseball Savant). 

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Excellent Repertoire, but Poor Four-Seamer

Cameron doesn't sport an elite fastball, which is why he was a bit of an underrated pitching prospect in the Royals system after being drafted in the seventh round (199th overall) out of Central Arkansas in the 2021 MLB Draft. However, he succeeded in the Minors thanks to his super command. Cameron posted a 6.7% walk rate and 21.1% K-BB% over 128.2 innings with Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals and Omaha Storm Chasers in 2024. 

While the St. Joseph-born lefty limited walks, he also succeeded with a five-pitch mix that kept hitters off balance. That trend continued in the Majors, as he sported a diverse pitch mix, throwing all of his pitches at least 14.3% of the time. While that's not Lugo's level of pitch variety (very few pitchers can throw 10 pitches), it's still strong enough to keep hitters at bay. Furthermore, he was able to sport not just decent stuff with his pitches but also strong chase and whiff rates, as well as a reasonable xwOBACON, as seen in his TJ Stats summary below. 

Cameron doesn't generate a ton of extension on pitches, as his 6.3 average rates as slightly below average. Thus, it's not a surprise that he doesn't generate a ton of velocity on his offerings either. Four of his five offerings last year rated as below average in terms of velocity, with the only exception being his curve, which was slightly above with an 80.9 MPH velocity. 

That said, he still produced strong movement and quality on the pitches. That led to four of his five offerings earning decent to above-average ratings for TJ Stuff+. Furthermore, non-Royal folks have rated his repertoire pretty highly, pointing out his advanced "feel" for his pitches, as well as his ability to tunnel pitches with one another effectively. 

 

Speaking of "tunneling", Cameron does do a good job of pairing offerings with one another soundly, which makes it tough for hitters to hone in on his offerings, even if they aren't "elite" in terms of stuff or velocity. Below is a look at his pitch movement plot from 2025, and notice how he pairs certain offerings with one another on the chart. 

 

His four-seamer and changeup are both paired with one another, which is an effective combo, especially considering the 11 MPH difference between the two pitches. He also does a nice job blending his cutter, slider, and curve, a strategy that proved sound for him last year. All sport downward, glove-side movement, but to different degrees of break. That is hard on hitters because the slightest difference in movement on breaking pitches can lead to poor swings, resulting in weak contact or whiffs, as seen below against Seattle.

 

 

When it comes to breaking down his offerings individually, his cutter was his most standout pitch from last year and his second most-thrown offering at 21.5%. It also had a 103 TJ Stuff+, tied for the best grade of his five offerings. The cutter was an interesting pitch location-wise, as Cameron tended to throw it more in and up on righties and down and away against lefties, as illustrated by his TJ Stats pitch heatmap summary. 

He threw the pitch more against righties (23% to 16.9% against lefties), but in terms of CSW, it was far more effective against lefties. It sported a 36.8% CSW and 39.1% whiff rate against left-handed hitters, compared to 24% and 18.9% rates against right-handed hitters. There wasn't much difference, though, in terms of chase (34.1% O-Swing% against lefties and 30% O-Swing% against righties) and xwOBACON (.371 against lefties; .366 against righties). In terms of fastball offerings, his cutter was by far better than his four-seamer. 

When it comes to breaking offerings, the curve was Cameron's best swing-and-miss offering against righties. It sported a 100 TJStuff+, which was 3 points lower than his slider. Nonetheless, despite the lower grade, it was a key part of his repertoire last year (19% usage).

Unlike his cutter, he threw the pitch in one area, down and glove-side, against both righties and lefties. However, it was more effective against righties, as illustrated by his 33.8% CSW, which can be seen below.

Lefties did worse in terms of production on the pitch, as they had a .291 xwOBACON against Cameron's curve, which was 21 points lower than his xwOBACON allowed against righties. That said, when Cameron needed whiffs against righties, it seemed like his curveball was his best offering. 

Conversely, when it came to getting swing-and-miss against lefties, his slider was the better pitch, as seen below in the slider heatmap data. 

There was a huge gap in slider usage for Cameron against lefties (28.7%) and righties (9.8%). It made sense, as Cameron's slider generated a 39.2% CSW and 34.9% whiff rate, which is pretty impressive, to put it mildly. Interestingly enough, righties chased more on the slider (45.3% O-Swing%), and his xwOBACON was lower (.292 to .331 against lefties). Still, fewer strikes were generated against righties with the slider, as evidenced by his 28% CSW. 

His last solid offering was his changeup, which had a 98 TJ Stuff+, the second-lowest mark of his five offerings. It didn't necessarily have elite qualities, but he had superb command on the pitch, especially against right-handers (22.9% usage). Against righties, his changeup generated a 30.5% usage, 43.5% whiff rate, and 27.7% O-Swing%. He also seemed to effectively throw the pitch away and arm-side to right-handed hitters, while his command of the offspeed pitch against lefties was more erratic. 

Against lefties, the changeup had a CSW of 8.7% and a whiff rate of 7.7%, and a .541 xwOBACON (nearly 200 points higher than his split against righties). Thus, it wasn't really an ideal pitch against lefties in any context. Then again, he threw the pitch less than five percent of the time, so it was more of a "get-me-over" offering than a regularly utilized one against lefties.  

Unfortunately, when it comes to pitch repertoire, the main concern with Cameron is his four-seamer. The primary offering sported a lackluster pitch quality with an 87 TJ Stuff+. That's not a good pitch for any pitch, let alone one he throws the most in a given game.

Unsurprisingly, he generated lackluster CSW and whiff marks with the pitch against both lefties and righties. However, he did at least command the pitch effectively: in the upper edges of the strike zone. 

Hitters didn't chase much on the pitch, and most of his CSW rates came from called strikes rather than swinging ones. He was better against lefties with xwOBACON (.393) than righties (.510), which is interesting to see for a left-handed pitcher. 

When it comes to Cameron moving forward with the four-seamer, he's at a bit of a crossroads with the pitch. It's an essential part of his repertoire, and I think it's more effective against righties because it tunnels well with the changeup (a pitch that righties struggled against). That said, when he makes mistakes with the pitch, it's hit hard. The .550 xSLG and .390 xwOBA on the pitch illustrate that.

Thus, I don't think it's as easy as "throwing the four-seamer less" because I think that could come at a cost of his other offerings, especially the cutter, which has emerged as one of his best offerings. Rather, I wonder if new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran can help Cameron make some tweaks to the pitch, perhaps generating more vertical movement to at least make it a slightly below-average offering in 2026 rather than a greatly below-average one.

The right tweak on his four-seamer could help him avoid a major regression on the mound in 2026.

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Induces Weak Contact; But Will Results Change with "New" Kauffman? 

When it comes to contact, Cameron was obviously above average at getting hitters to not "connect" as often as they would like. When looking at his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats from last season, he ranked in the upper percentiles of the league in terms of minimizing the kind of contact that could result in a lot of production (i.e., home runs, extra-base hits, etc.). 

Cameron ranked in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 86th in barrel rate, and 85th in hard-hit rate. He also ranked in the 71st percentile in whiff% and Z-Contact%. That's pretty elite, especially for a pitcher with fastball velocity that ranked in the 24th percentile and extension that ranked in the 29th percentile.

On a more negative note, he was mediocre in terms of his zone, chase, K%, BB%, and K-BB% (all under 50%). While his GB% and CSW% ranked in the 52nd percentile, they need to be higher going forward, especially since it's unlikely that the Z-Contact% and CSW will remain at such high levels with his stuff profile. 

A key hint that regression may be coming on the batted-ball end could be seen in his rolling xwOBA chart from 2025 via Savant. He maintained a below-average xwOBA for the first half of his season, but that trend spiked around the 350th plate appearance and stayed above the league average for the remainder of the season (above-average is NOT good in this case). 

Now, he still posted a 2.99 ERA last year despite this trend. Thus, let's take a look at how this correlated with his actual wOBA chart trend from 2025. 

Cameron saw a spike in rolling wOBA, but there was a decline at the 500th plate appearance. He also appeared to be "unluckier" around his 100th to 250th plate appearances, as his wOBA trend was higher than his xwOBA. Still, that big gap in wOBA and xwOBA from the 500th plate appearance to the end of the year is a bit concerning and could be a hint that regression could be coming to his overall metrics in 2026 unless proper adjustments are made. 

Speaking of adjustments, the 26-year-old lefty will be pitching in a new Kauffman Stadium in terms of dimensions. When looking at his spray chart at home from 2025, it did seem that he would've given up a few more home runs at the K when taking into consideration the new dimensions (which would be similar to Target Field in Minnesota). Notice the number of outs that would have been homers below, especially in right field. 

When it comes to right field, he would've given up six more home runs at Kauffman Stadium had these new dimensions been in play last year. That's a huge boost, and it could've resulted in his ERA not just being higher than his 2025 mark, but his FIP mark as well (which was already in the four range). 

For Cameron to overcome these new "possible" ballpark issues, he will need to increase the swing-and-miss in 2026. After all, strikeouts can't go for extra-base hits or home runs in any park.

On a positive note, he showed a strong whiff trend at the beginning of the year before it tailed off around the 300th swing mark. For roughly 100 swings after the mark, the swinging-and-missing percentage stayed subpar. Thankfully, he made some adjustments and got it back to above league-average around the 425th swing mark. 

Getting more swing-and-miss in 2026 won't be easy, especially considering the limitations of his velocity and stuff (98 TJ Stuff+ overall). However, Cameron is a student of the game who made strong adjustments to succeed in 2024 in the Minors after a rough stint in Double-A the previous year. He also made the proper adjustments to succeed in the Majors in 2025. 

Perhaps he has a couple of more tweaks in him to help him become a better swing-and-miss pitcher. 

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Final Breakdown on Cameron

Cameron is well-loved by Royals fans as a local kid from Northern Missouri. However, he also had gotten plenty of attention from non-Royals fans, with Roster Economics showing some praise of the Royals' homegrown product in a breakdown of Cameron on Twitter on January 29th. 

 

The Royals have a solid asset on their hands in Cameron, even if he may never be more than a No. 3 starter over the course of his career. He still isn't arbitration-eligible until 2029 and won't be a free agent until 2032, so Cameron won't be an arm that they'll financially have to worry about for a long time (which is nice after the tough arbitration negotiations with Bubic this offseason). That kind of profile is needed for teams, especially small-market ones, trying to stay competitive each season.

And yet, regression seems likely for Cameron in 2026.

The stuff profile isn't there to be a sub-three ERA pitcher again, and the below-average extension will make it harder for him to add more perceived velocity on his offerings as well (Bubic succeeds with below-average velocity because his strong extension gives him more perceived velocity). When it came to this offseason, I was more willing to part with Cameron as a trade asset than Bubic simply because I believe Bubic's stuff profile makes him more dependable long-term than Cameron (even with Bubic being older and hitting free agency next year). 

At the same time, the Royals' pitching coaches have shown they can help pitchers make the right tweaks and adjustments to succeed and avoid long stretches of poor performance. While McFerran doesn't have the history of former assistant pitching coach Zach Bove (who's now the White Sox's head pitching coach), his background suggests he's cut from a similar cloth and will be able to do the same things Bove did. 

I am hoping that McFerran and Sweeney can identify the right tweaks with Cameron to get more movement and quality out of his four-seamer because that seems to be the key to what his regression could look like in 2026. A similar fastball in TJ Stuff+ in 2026 is likely to result in much worse outcomes. 

However, a newer, slightly better one? 

Perhaps Cameron could give another dependable 130-150 innings with an ERA in the 3.00-3.50 range. 

If that's the case, the Royals will not just have one of the best rotations in the AL Central, but perhaps in all of baseball (as long as they stay healthy, of course). 

 

 

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