Four Royals Starting Pitchers to Watch in 2026 Based on Steamer Projections

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

In part one of our Royals-based Steamer projections series, I looked at Royals hitters and identified five who could be due for impactful seasons in 2026. 

In this part, the focus will be on the Royals' starting pitchers and their projections. The Royals' starting pitching was a strength of this squad in 2025, and a primary reason why they finished 82-80, their second winning season since their 2015 World Series. Last year, Royals starting pitchers ranked seventh in ERA (3.80) and sixth in fWAR (13.8), according to Fangraphs.

Unlike part one, where the focus was more on hitters who could break out, this post will look at two starting pitchers who could have strong seasons, and two who may be due for regression or "questionable" performances next year.

For a complete look at Royals starting pitcher Steamer projections, check out the table below; the interactive table is available here (via Datawrapper).  

Hence, let's take a look at those four Royals starters that fans should be keeping an eye on next year, especially with Kansas City looking to return to the postseason after missing out in 2025. 

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Kris Bubic, LHP

 

 

In 155 Projected IP: 3.80 ERA, 22.5% K%, 14.4% K-BB%, 1.29 WHIP, 45% GB%, 3.83 FIP, 2.5 fWAR.

Bubic's name has been a hot topic in Royals trade talks this offseason. The Royals are committed to keeping Cole Ragans this offseason, and rightfully so, as Steamer projects a 4.2 fWAR for Ragans in 2026. As a result, Bubic may be Kansas City's best trade chip, especially if they want to acquire a high-profile hitter like Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan (whom the Royals have been connected to this offseason). 

 

Even though he missed most of the second half last year due to injury, Bubic was on his way to having a Cy Young-caliber season. In 20 starts and 116.1 IP, Bubic posted a 2.55 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 24.4% K%, and 3.3 fWAR. That performance helped him earn his first All-Star appearance. 

Steamer believes that Bubic will do more of the same, even with some expected slight regression. Bubic's projected ERA (3.80), K% (22.5%), K-BB% (14.4%), FIP (3.83), and fWAR (2.5) rank second for Royals starting pitchers in 2026, behind only Ragans. Steamer projects that Bubic will remain a strikeout machine, but still generate enough groundballs to be effective on the mound. His projected 45% GB% ranks second to only Stephen Kolek (51%). 

Health will be a concern with Bubic in 2026, especially since he missed significant time in 2023 and 2025, and was limited to the bullpen in 2024.  Even though he will be a free agent after next season, Bubic could be the key to the Royals' pitching staff and the club's overall success in 2026, especially if he can pitch a full season. Thus, if the Royals can't acquire Duran or Donovan, they may be better off keeping him, given Steamer's optimistic outlook.

 

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Michael Wacha, RHP

In 170 Projected IP: 4.39 ERA, 18.6% K%, 11.7% K-BB%, 1.32 WHIP, 37.7% GB%, 4.36 FIP, 2.2 fWAR.

Wacha signed a three-year extension before the 2025 season, and he lived up to his new contract in year one.

In 172.2 IP, the 34-year-old righty posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.66 FIP, and 3.6 fWAR. Even though he lost out on Royals Pitcher of the Year honors to Noah Cameron, Wacha's fWAR led all Royals starting pitchers last season, according to Fangraphs. 

The veteran succeeded despite not generating many strikeouts or swing-and-misses. His 17.6% K rate was 3.6% lower than in 2024, and his 24.9% CSW was 1.3% lower. Thus, Wacha seemed to benefit from some batted-ball luck in 2025, and his .287 BABIP and 6.6% HR/FB rate seemed to illustrate that. 

Therefore, it's not surprising that Steamer projects Wacha to see a return to earth in 2026 after posting back-to-back with ERA marks under 4.00. 

Steamer projects Wacha's ERA and FIP to bump to 4.39 and 4.36 in 2026, respectively. A big reason for that is another K rate below 20% and a K-BB% below 12%, both of which happened last year. His GB% is projected to be 37.7%, a 0.5% increase from a year ago. However, it still lags behind his 38.6% GB% from his first season in Kansas City.

Wacha should continue to be productive in the Royals' rotation in 2026. Steamer projects a 2.2 fWAR, which is the third-best mark of Royals starters next year. Steamer also projects 170 IP from Wacha, thus confirming his status as an innings-eater in the Kansas City rotation. That said, after back-to-back seasons of fWAR marks over 3, it seems like 2026 may be his worst season yet with the Royals, unless something dramatic happens in his K% or GB%.

 

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Seth Lugo, RHP

In 161 Projected IP: 4.38 ERA, 19.8 % K%, 12.3% K-BB%, 1.35 WHIP, 41.3% GB%, 4.29 FIP, 1.9 fWAR.

After finishing second in the AL Cy Young race in 2024, Lugo took a bit of a step back in 2025. After posting a 3.00 ERA and 4.6 fWAR in 206.2 IP in his first year in Kansas City, he ended up putting up a 4.15 ERA and 0.5 fWAR in only 145.1 IP last season. Despite this regression, GM JJ Picollo still gave Lugo a contract extension right before the Trade Deadline to keep him in Royals blue until 2027. 

Many fans questioned Picollo's decision to keep Lugo, especially since he was getting some trade buzz at the Deadline last summer. However, Steamer is optimistic that Lugo can return to a productive form in 2026, even if he won't match the numbers he posted in 2024. 

Steamer projects that Lugo will post a 4.38 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 161.3 IP. While the ERA is a 23-point increase, his FIP is actually an 80-point decrease. When it comes to predicting performance, FIP is a much better indicator for future success than ERA. Thus, seeing Lugo projected to outperform his FIP from a year ago by so much is a step in the right direction for him in year three in Kansas City.

A few factors contribute to Lugo's projected bounce back next year. Steamer projects his K-BB% to be 0.8% higher, his walk rate to be 1.5% lower, and his HR/9 to drop 45 points. Giving up fewer walks and home runs will be key for Lugo in 2026, especially since his 1.67 HR/9 last year was his highest mark since 2020 (when he was with the Mets as a reliever) and his 9.0% walk rate was his highest mark since 2021 (also with the Mets). Seeing those two numbers stabilize a bit should help him be more effective overall in 2026.

Even though the ERA and FIP are projected to be over four, his 1.9 fWAR would be a 1.4 fWAR improvement from 2025. Thus, Royals fans should be optimistic that Lugo could be an effective No. 2-3 starter for the Royals next year, especially if he's able to surpass his 161 IP projection. 

 

 

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Ryan Bergert, RHP

In 68 Projected IP: 4.65 ERA, 19.1 % K%, 10.1% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP, 38% GB%, 4.61 FIP, 0.3 fWAR.

Bergert came over with Kolek in the Freddy Fermin trade at the Trade Deadline. Initially, it looked like Bergert seemed to be a lock in the Royals' rotation in 2026 and beyond.

In his first six starts with the Royals, he posted a 2.43 ERA, an 8.37 K/9, and 2.97 BB/9 in 33.1 IP. However, in his last two starts before going on the IL for the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury, he posted a 13.50 ERA, 9.82 K/9, and 7.36 BB/9 in only 7.1 IP. 

The former Padres righty probably wasn't as bad as his last two starts. His .536 BABIP allowed and 3.43 FIP illustrate that he was perhaps a bit unlucky in those two games. Conversely, he also wasn't as good as his first six starts in Kansas City either. During that month-long stretch from August 5th to September 3rd, his FIP was 3.83, and his BABIP was .209. Therefore, it's not a surprise that his overall FIP was 3.75 during his 40.2 IP sample with the Royals in 2025.

While his FIP outperformed his ERA (4.43) last year, Bergert doesn't project well in Steamer's latest set. 

Steamer projects Bergert to accumulate only 68 innings, and his numbers look mediocre in that limited sample. His 4.65 ERA and 4.61 FIP are both higher than his numbers in 76.1 innings with the Padres and Royals last year (3.66 ERA and 4.00 FIP). They are also projecting a 3.5% decrease in K% and a 1.7% regression in K-BB%. 

As a result, Bergert has the profile of a spot starter who may be used more in long relief in 2026 than as a full-time starter. His 25.3% CSW last year doesn't help, and this lackluster skill could be a reason why Steamer projects such a massive decline in strikeout rate next year.

Bergert is a talented pitcher with upside when healthy, as he is only 25. That said, Steamer doesn't paint a rosy picture of Bergert in 2026. Thus, Royals fans probably need to keep their expectations of him modest for now. 

 

 

 

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