Five Royals Hitters to Watch in 2026 Based on Steamer Projections

[Kevin O'Brien]

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Around this time, many projection systems begin churning out their latest models for the upcoming season. Steamer tends to be the earliest to go public, which provides a lot of spark and debate during this busy winter "hot stove" season.

Here is a description of Steamer projections, including their history and how they are calculated both before and during the season.

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Steamer is a system of projections developed by Jared Cross -- a high school science teacher in Brooklyn -- and two of his former students, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom. It is currently used by Fangraphs as its primary projection system for individual players.

According to Steamer's website, the projection system got its name because St. Ann's High School goes by the nickname the "Steamers." The system began simply as part of an independent research program at the high school, on which Davidson and Rosenbloom teamed up with Cross.

Like other projection systems, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. On Fangraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

 

This will be a two-part series. In part one, I will look at five hitters who have noteworthy Steamer projections for 2026. In part two, I will look at five pitchers. 

I have included a table below of Steamer projections for Royals players who are projected to accumulate 10 or more plate appearances in 2026 (ranked by fWAR). That gives readers who may want to see how others are doing a glimpse of how others are doing beyond the five I will analyze in this post.

 

Remember, the projections listed capture their 80th percentile projection. Bobby Witt Jr. will likely have more than 634 plate appearances next year. The same is true for Salvador Perez and 580 plate appearances. Thus, when looking at these, it's essential to approach these projections as a "modest estimate", not necessarily as gospel. 

With that said, let's look at five Royals hitters who could make a significant impact on the Royals lineup in 2026, based on their intriguing Steamer projections.

 

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Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B

In 563 projected plate appearances: 24 HR, 72 R, 81 RBI, .266 AVG, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

The Royals have extended Witt and Maikel Garcia to solidify the left side of their infield until at least 2030. However, they have been a bit quieter about their long-term plans with Pasquantino, who's coming off a 32-HR, 113-RBI season, both career highs. 

 

 

 

The Pasquatch has struggled to stay healthy since debuting in 2022. However, he trended positively in terms of playing time last year, playing in 160 games and collecting 682 plate appearances. By avoiding the IL, Pasquantino was finally able to maximize his production, leading the Royals in home runs and RBI. 

Steamer seems optimistic that Pasquantino will continue to mash in the Royals' lineup in 2026.

Pasquantino is projected to hit 24 HR, the third-highest projection for next year (behind only Witt's 26 and Perez's 25). His 120 wRC+ is the second-highest projection behind Witt's 133. Lastly, Steamer projects a positive boost in the BB/K ratio to 0.59. That's 13 points better than his ratio a season ago.

The primary issue with Pasquantino is that his defense weighs him down. Last year, he posted a -16.9 Def (defensive runs above average), which contributed to his fWAR of only 1.5. Steamer projects a similar defensive outlook, with a -11.6 Def for 2026. Thus, he is projected to produce a Steamer under two, despite his optimistic offensive outlook.

Despite the defensive issues, the Royals' primary first baseman should continue to be a force in the Royals' lineup, and he could be Kansas City's next extension candidate after the conclusion of this season, especially if he matches or surpasses his Steamer projections.

 

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Jonathan India, 2B

In 500 plate appearances: 11 HR, 57 R, 47 RBI, 6 SB, .247 AVG, .320 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

It was a nightmare season for India in Kansas City last year. In 567 plate appearances, the former Reds second baseman hit .233 with an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR. Those were career-worst marks in those three categories. To make matters worse, he lost his spot as the Royals' leadoff hitter after the Trade Deadline, and he was seen as a non-tender candidate this offseason.

Kansas City opted to bring India back for at least one more year, agreeing to an $8 million deal for this season. While many Royals fans are not optimistic about his outlook, Steamer paints a rosier picture for 2026.

 

 

Steamer projects India sees a bit of a power and speed boost for 2026, with 11 home runs (two more than last year) and six stolen bases (none in the previous season). Steamer also expects India to see some batted-ball correction, with a 14-point increase in batting average. However, the most encouraging aspect of India's projection profile is that his trademark plate discipline shouldn't see regression. Steamer projects a 10.3% walk rate and 0.54 BB/K ratio, both improvements from a year ago (9.5% walk rate; 0.51 BB/K ratio). 

It seems like manager Matt Quatraro has a better sense of India's talents and skills, and thus, it's unlikely that the 29-year-old second baseman will move around the field like a year ago. That should help his defensive production, though it's unlikely that India will ever be a solid defensive player. Steamer projects a -6.1 Def for 2026, which isn't good, but is 5.7 points better than last season.

The Royals do not need India to be an All-Star or an impact hitter at the top of the batting order. However, if he can provide a disciplined approach and some occasional pop in the 6th-7th hole in the batting order, that should be more than enough to help improve a Royals lineup that struggled with consistency in 2025. 

 

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Jac Caglianone, RF

In 418 plate appearances: 17 HR, 51 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .255 AVG, .331 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Speaking of brutal seasons, no Royals position player had it worse than Caglianone, who struggled in his transition to the Major League level last year.

In 232 plate appearances, Caglianone hit .157 with a 46 wRC+ and accumulated a -1.6 fWAR, the worst mark of Royals players a season ago. Hence, it is easy for many Royals fans to lose faith in Caglianone after he received such massive hype a season ago upon his debut.

Steamer projections illustrate to Royals fans, however, that they should not lose faith in Caglianone and his potential impact in 2026.

 

Caglianone is projected to hit 17 home runs and post a .331 wOBA and 109 wRC+, both massive improvements from a season ago. The defense is still a question mark, as Steamer projected Caglianone to produce a -6.6 Def in the outfield. That said, Caglianone's value and impact are needed by the Royals at the plate, not in the field. Kansas City can live with subpar defense if he can hit 20 or more home runs a season.

His projected plate appearance numbers are low, so it's likely that Caglianone could surpass 17 home runs and hit 20 to 25 home runs if he receives 500 or more plate appearances. His .195 projected ISO is a 57-point increase from his rookie year, and he has the potential to live up to that ISO number or more, based on his substantial exit velocity and barrel metrics from a season ago.

 

Will Caglianone be able to launch the ball enough to translate his batted-ball quality and bat speed into production in 2026? Steamer seems to think so.

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Carter Jensen, C

In 277 plate appearances: 9 HR, 33 R, 32 RBI, 3 SB, .246 AVG, .323 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

While Caglianone failed to live up to rookie expectations in 2025, the opposite was true for Jensen, a local product who attended Park Hill High School in the northern KC metro area. 

A September call-up when rosters expanded, Jensen hit .300 with a 159 wRC+ and sported a 0.7 fWAR in 69 plate appearances. He also showed excellent batted-ball ability as well as plate discipline in his small MLB sample, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary from a season ago.

 

The hype for Jensen in 2026 is real, and it seems like JJ Picollo and Quatraro are on board to make sure Jensen eases the catching load for Perez, much like Freddy Fermin did in 2024 and 2025 before the Royals backup catcher was traded to San Diego at the Trade Deadline.

 

While Royals fans should be encouraged by Jensen's outlook, Steamer projects a bit of a regression, which makes sense over a larger sample.

In 277 projected plate appearances, Steamer expects Jensen to hit .246 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. They also project him to post a .323 wOBA and 104 wRC+. For context, those marks are expected to be better than Perez's (.318 wOBA; 101 wRC+) next year. 

Of course, this is a pretty modest projection, and simply viewing Jensen as solely a backup catcher. I think Jensen is due for more designated hitter plate appearances, especially if he can get off to a hot start to the season. Nonetheless, Steamer is warning Royals fans who think Jensen is due for 20 to 30 home runs next year to perhaps cool their jets a bit (for now).

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Lane Thomas, OF

In 379 plate appearances: 11 HR, 45 R, 41 RBI, 13 SB, .236 AVG, .306 wOBA, 92 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

 

The Royals seem to be aiming to make one more big move, whether it's Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan. That should keep Thomas regulated to a fourth-outfielder role, who may get semi-regular time if he can get on a hot streak at the plate.

 

 

 

Steamer is a bit conflicted about Thomas, who posted a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR in an injury-plagued campaign in Cleveland last year.

On one end, they are optimistic about his home run (11) and stolen base (13) production in a modest sample (379 plate appearances). Steamer also expects a power boost with a .158 ISO, a 46-point increase from a season ago, and only a five-point difference from 2024 when he played for the Nationals and Guardians. 

Thomas' plate discipline is projected to be around where it was last year. His 25.5% K rate is expected to be a 5.5% improvement, but his 0.32 BB/K ratio is expected to match his season-ago rate. The defense also doesn't project well, as his Steamer projects him to produce a -4.5 Def. That's a big reason why his fWAR is expected to hover under one next year.

Still, for a fourth outfielder, this isn't a bad profile for the Royals to have. His wRC+ is projected to be better than Michael Massey's (89), John Rave's (84), and Tyler Tolbert's (66). Thus, Thomas should raise the floor of a Royals lineup that struggled to find right-handed production from the outfield last year.  

 

 

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