Why the Royals Shouldn't Sign Cody Bellinger

[Kevin O'Brien]

Getting a productive outfield bat seems to be priority number one for JJ Picollo and the Kansas City Royals front office. After all, they ranked last in outfield fWAR, according to Fangraphs, and he's been open to the media about possibly trading from their starting pitching depth to get the outfielder they need to improve the lineup in 2026. 

 

 

While the Royals are open to a trade to acquire an outfielder, the free agent market has a lot of outfield possibilities. One candidate who could improve the Royals' outfield and lineup is Cody Bellinger, who's ranked No. 8 in DiamondCentric's Top-50 Free Agents list. Here's what Matt Trueblood of DiamondCentric said about Bellinger in his write-up.

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The move from Wrigley Field to Yankee Stadium was great for Bellinger's numbers, and the Yankees' handling of him (playing him in the corner outfield spots, where he belongs, and boosting his bat speed through better coaching) genuinely elevated his game. The injuries that took him off a superstar trajectory (and the poor play that came with them, leading the Dodgers to non-tender him three years ago) are still relevant, because he's shown neither the knack for avoiding them nor the ability to play well through them. Nonetheless, he's a well-rounded, dynamic player.

Projected Contract: 6 years, $130 million

 

After posting a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 569 plate appearances in 2024, his final season with the Cubs, Bellinger had a resurgence with the Yankees last season. He posted a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 656 plate appearances and also hit 29 home runs and collected 98 RBI, 11 and 20 more than his totals in 2024 in those categories, respectively.

Hence, it is not surprising that Bellinger is projected to earn a multi-year deal in the $25+ million AAV range this offseason and is already attracting interest from many teams, including the Phillies and even the Angels. 

If the Royals were to pursue Bellinger, it would require a significant long-term commitment from owner John Sherman. While Kansas City is a small-market team, it has not been averse to big deals in the past. That is evidenced by their mega extension to Bobby Witt Jr. before the 2024 season and their multi-year deals with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in the past calendar year.

However, while Bellinger at the surface level could provide a boost to the Royals' lineup in the short and long term, the underlying metrics hint at a hitter who could struggle in his transition to Kauffman Stadium, especially as an outfielder who will be 31 next July.

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Why Bellinger is Enticing for the Royals

Bellinger checks a lot of boxes for the Royals at first glance, especially when looking at his surface-level and plate discipline metrics. 

Last season with the Yankees, the 30-year-old outfielder slashed .272/.334/.480 with an .813 OPS. In addition to hitting 29 home runs, scoring 89 runs, and collecting 98 RBI, he also showed decent speed on the basepaths with 13 stolen bases. He also had 20 stolen bases in 2023 and 14 in 2022, which displays that Bellinger can be a 20-20 HR-SB threat for any team that acquires him.

While the results were strong last season, his plate discipline may have been even more impressive. 

With the Yankees, he posted a 13.7% K rate, the lowest of his career. Furthermore, he also generated an 8.7% walk rate, his highest mark in that category since 2021, when he was still a member of the Dodgers. Thus, he produced a 0.63 BB/K ratio, his best mark in that category since 2020 (when it was 0.71) and the third-best ratio of his career (he had a 0.88 ratio in 2019). Over the last three years, he has seen significant improvement in his BB/K ratio, going from 0.25 in 2022 to 0.46 in 2023 and 0.51 in 2024. 

Lastly, he ranked in the upper percentiles in whiff percentage and pulled the ball effectively with the Yankees. His overall pull percentage ranked in the 80th percentile, and Pull Air percentage ranked in the 90th percentile. Those two factors led to his home run success in the Bronx. Those are both clear in his Statcast summary profile via TJ Stats. 

 

The Royals' outfielders ranked 17th in BB/K ratio last season with a 0.35 mark, according to Fangraphs. That said, only one Royals outfielder posted a better ratio than Bellinger: Mike Yastrzemski, who sported a 1.14 BB/K ratio. The next closest Royals to Bellinger were Cavan Biggio and Nick Loftin, who both posted 0.52 ratios. 

Therefore, Bellinger could provide a disciplined, high-contact approach sorely needed in the middle of the Kansas City lineup next season. 

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The Issue with Bellinger

The main problem with Bellinger is two-fold: his pop is questionable, and his bat speed isn't encouraging.

In terms of the former, it doesn't seem likely that Bellinger's profile would fare well in Kauffman Stadium's spacious dimensions. According to Statcast's xHR by Park measurement, only 22 of his 29 home runs would've been gone at the K last season. Over his career, only 158 of Bellinger's 235 home runs would be out at Kaffuman. The only park with lower xHR was Oracle Park in San Francisco (138). 

Visually, Royals fans can see that many of Bellinger's home runs would've fallen short. Below is a spray chart of his 2025 hits, applied to Kauffman's dimensions.

 

Next, below is a clip of a home run Bellinger hit against the Cubs at Yankee Stadium. It would've only cleared out of four other stadiums in baseball. Unsurprisingly, Kauffman Stadium was not one of them. 

The batted-ball percentiles and bat speed don't paint a pretty picture for Bellinger's outlook in Kansas City either.

Even though he nearly hit 30 home runs, he seemed to outperform his exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit metrics. His average exit velocity ranked in the 28th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 35th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 28th percentile. His hard-hit percentage rolling chart also showcased him regressing heavily in the second half after a bit of a spike in the beginning of June. 

Bellinger was able to launch the ball well last season, as illustrated by his 38.6% LA Sweet-Spot percentage, which ranked in the 77th percentile. He is also able to square up the ball well, as his squared-up rate ranked in the 72nd percentile last year, according to Statcast. While those metrics are promising, his bat speed is the inverse.

Last year, his bat speed averaged 70.1 MPH, which ranked in the 20th percentile according to Statcast. For context, that bat speed would be the seventh-worst mark of Royals hitters with 100 or more swings last season, as illustrated in the table below.

In addition to the slow average swing velocity, his 6.5% hard-swing rate is the fifth-worst mark as well. He also would've sported the second-longest swing of this group at 7.8 feet. Long swings tend to lead to a lot of whiffs (notice Salvador Perez has the longest swing of this sample, and he had a 19.5% K rate last season). Thus, any regression in Bellinger's plate discipline could lead to a lot more swings and misses, and thus, strikeouts.

That isn't exactly the profile the Royals would want from a hitter expected to be a long-term mainstay at the three-to-five spots in the batting order. 

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Bellinger Isn't Worth the Cost

There's no question that any available hitter the Royals are targeting this offseason will have warts in their profile. That said, as one of my friends and Inside the Crown writer David Lesky noted in a chat, "it's one thing to get a guy with warts, it's another thing to get that kind of guy who's going to take up 15-20% of your team's payroll for several years."

Matthew of DiamondCentric estimated Bellinger would command an AAV of about $22 million in his next deal. Spotrac is putting his market value at $30,449,698. That is essentially Witt money, and even then, Witt doesn't hit the $30 million AAV mark in his contract until 2028, according to Roster Resource. 

Bellinger is a good player, but he's not a Witt-esque one. He's a good complementary piece, but not one that can carry a team long-term, especially on a massive contract. If he were, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees wouldn't have let him go. 

A bad contract on an aging "fringe" star with questionable skills can be debilitating to a franchise. Just ask the Colorado Rockies, who learned the hard way with Kris Bryant, or the Angels with Anthony Rendon. 

Let's hope the Royals don't make that same mistake with Bellinger. 

 

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